Just like they did in late January, Michigan State will tip it off against Rutgers prior to a rivalry game with Michigan. Last time, it was Rutgers on the road before hosting the Wolverines. This time, Rutgers comes to the Breslin center on Thursday (8 PM – FS1) before MSU closes out the Big Ten regular season in Ann Arbor on Sunday.
This will be part of a big evening of MSU Sports with Women’s Basketball opening play at the Big Ten tournament and men’s hockey with a chance to clinch a third straight
conference title by winning at Minnesota.
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In the first matchup with the Scarlett Knights, the Spartans escaped Piscataway, NJ with an 88-79 overtime victory with a late rally in regulation and a solid five minutes of overtime basketball. It was a struggle all the way up until those last few minutes though and the Rutgers game kicked off the only really rough stretch of the season for Michigan State.
After Rutgers, MSU lost three of the next four. This included an uneven performance against Michigan and then surrendering way to many three pointers at Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The Spartans have recovered since the rough patch, however, in winning their last four. Most recently, this included a high-stakes, high-level battle at Purdue and then a pretty nice win at Indiana.
Let’s see what Rutgers might present to Michigan State on the Spartans’ Senior Night.
Rutgers Overview
Rutgers has won three of their last five games, including a 69-65 win at Maryland on Sunday. However, prior to that, the Knights had dropped seven in a row, including the OT loss to Michigan State in what has arguably been Rutgers’ best game of the season so far.
The Scarlet Knights are just 12-17 overall and 5-13 in the Big Ten. The conference teams that Rutgers has beaten (Maryland – twice, Penn State, Northwestern, and Oregon) are all having rough years of their own and sit near the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
Statistically, Rutgers struggles to score (70.5 ppg in Big Ten play) and prevent teams from scoring (giving up 80.3 ppg in conference games). Only Penn State gives up more points in Big Ten games than Rutgers.
Rutgers Rotation
The starting five and minutes distribution has changed a bit since O previewed the Spartans’ first game against Rutgers, but it’s still the same contributors with a rotation that goes nine deep. In their win at Maryland, Rutgers sent out the following starting 5:
- #0 6-1 JR G – Tariq Francis. 16.5 points on 43% FG (32% 3P) in 27.2 minutes. NJIT transfer – first year at Rutgers.
- #2 6-2 FR G – Lino Mark. 4.7 points on 38% FG (17% 3P) in 14 minutes.
- #3 6-4 FR G – Kaden Powers. 6.6 points on 35.2% FG (30% 3P) in 15.9 minutes.
- #5 6-7 JR G – Darren Buchanan Jr. 8.3 points on 48% FG (39% 3P) in 23 minutes. George Washington transfer – first year at Rutgers.
- #21 6-10 SR C – Emmanuel Ogbole. 3.4 points, 4.7 rebounds in 14.7 minutes.
Mark and Francis came off the bench in the first game against MSU but have since moved into the starting lineup. Francis led Rutgers with 23 points in 34 minutes in game one vs. the Spartans. Buchanan scored 14 against the Spartans back in January and shoots it well from three but only averages one attempt per game. He went 1-4 from deep against MSU.
Rutgers’ rotation players in their most recent game at Maryland were:
- #1 6-2 JR G – Jamichael Davis. 7 points on 38% FG (36% 3P) in 26.6 minutes.
- #4 6-9 SO F – Bryce Dortch. 2.2 points, 3,2 rebounds in 12.4 minutes.
- #9 6-8 SO F – Dylan Grant. 8.6 points, 4 rebounds in 24.2 minutes.
- #13 6-7 FR G – Harun Zrno. 7 points on 36% FG (34% 3P) in 19.9 minutes.
Grant and Davis started the first game against MSU but now appear to be contributing off the bench but still playing significant minutes. Davis and Zrno provide Rutgers with more consistent three point threats.
Overall, this is a younger group led by the transfer Francis but with several consistent contributors. Although it may have happened to some extent in the overtime victory earlier this year, the Spartans probably can’t rely on simply wearing down Rutgers. It would be nice continued effective offensive execution for MSU, like what has started to emerge in the last couple of games. More on that below.
Rutgers Coaching
Steve Pikiell is in his tenth season in Piscataway, where he has a 159-157 record. Unfortunately for Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights, his best season was a 20-11 campaign in 2020 – the year the NCAA tournament was canceled due to Covid 19. Under Pikiell, Rutgers made it to the second round of the 2021 tournament but was bounced in the First Four in 2022. Rutgers last made the postseason in 2023 when they were bounced in the first round of the NCAA.
Pikiell coached two NBA first round picks last year in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey but Rutgers failed to make a postseason tournament, finishing 15-17.
This is Pikiell’s second head coaching job after leading Stony Brook from 2005-2016.
Keys to the Game
I don’t mean to gloss over it, but this has to be a comfortable win for the Spartans. Rutgers has some emerging players and a good coach. They played the Spartans tough already this year and deserve credit for that. They are still playing hard despite a rough season.
But, this just hasn’t been their year.
Meanwhile, the Spartans went through a rough patch and appear to be re-emerging. They’ve won four in a row, including a win at Mackey Arena for first time in 12 years. The offense, which looked hesitant and lifeless for large parts of a month, has looked smart and efficient for most of the last two games.
Unfortunately, a regular season Big Ten title is out of reach this year but the Spartans have A LOT to play for. They are in strong position for a top-4 conference finish and a triple bye to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. More importantly, a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament, which was very much in doubt not too long ago, now is well within reach. Even a 2-seed could be attainable.
Like a lot of Tom Izzo teams, this one is showing the signs of emerging from a rough stretch only to start to put things back together just before tournament time.
Finally, it’s Senior Night at Breslin. Jaxon Kohler, Trey Fort, Denham Wojcik, Carson Cooper, and Nick Sanders will all suit up for the last time at Breslin. It will be interesting to see if Izzo sends out this group to start the game, as I think he’s done at times in the past, before quickly giving way to the regular starting group. Regardless of that, it’s this team’s job to make sure Sanders has a chance to be out there, with the Spartans holding a comfortable lead near the end, to kiss the Spartan Logo along with the other seniors.
The best-case scenario is perhaps a well-executed game where the Spartans build an early lead and keep it comfortable the whole way without losing focus – something that seems very unlikely to happen given that it’s Senior Night.
An added bonus might be a player or two – maybe Fort or Jesse McCulloch, who last played three games ago in a four minute outing vs. Ohio State – taking advantage of an opportunity and gaining some confidence before tournament time.
What would you add here TOC? Is anyone going to Senior Night? Let us know in the comments.
