Welcome back for another round of what seems to be easing into a bi-weekly routine of fantasy football ramblings. In this week’s edition, some more names to watch, and a treatise on variance.
Grades for last session’s waiver wire players to scout:
Cam Ward –
2/10 There’s evidence of slow growth as an actual quarterback, with the Titans pulling off that improbable win against Arizona. But with 0 passing TDs in the last 2 weeks, anyone who used him in fantasy wasn’t happy, even in a superflex.
Tre Benson – 1/10 The thought process was solid, but injury derailed him.
Woody Marks – 8/10 A big Week 4. Chubb re-asserted himself in Week 5, but Marks is definitely flex-worthy against the right matchup now.
Nathan Carter – 1/10 Back behind Allgeier in the pecking order.
Blake Corum – 4/10 Still stuck behind Kyren, but he was touted as a long-term play to begin with.
Braelon Allen – 1/10 Like Benson, the injury bug bit.
Kenneth Gainwell – 10/10 Hope you got in before the surprise Jaylen Warren scratch in Europe, because that was a juicy 30+ point performance out of nowhere.
Jeremy McNichols/Chris Rodriguez – 3/10 Still what they were touted as: Busy enough to be worth a look, but still second-fiddle to Bill in talent.
Chig Okonkwo – 3/10 Replacement level.
Elic Ayomanor – 6/10 No breakout, but quietly putting up decent numbers.
Tyquan Thornton – 5/10 Chiefs offense is all over the map. Thornton had big yardage on MNF, but not a lot of targets after temporarily seeming to supplant Hollywood Brown. A dart throw at best.
Tre Tucker (LV) – 3/10 Tucker will keep getting opportunities with Vegas passing from behind and Bowers hobbled, but the Raiders look awful.
Luke McCaffrey – 5/10 Not enough volume for fantasy purposes, but he’s filled in pretty reasonably with Scary Terry out.
Saints DST – 8/10 Felt pretty good about this one when that Skattebo scoop-n-score fumble cashed in.
Now, the treatise.
This time every year, I look at the standings of the fantasy leagues I play in, and notice a familiar pattern. There are 2 or 3 teams that look like favorites. They’re mostly 5-0 or 4-1, maybe one or two is 3-2 but lapping the field in points scored and just had a couple of bad luck losses. There are 2 or 3 teams that look like they are ready to call it a year. They are 0-5 or 1-4. They are 2-3 but injury-riddled. And then there are a bunch of teams in that squishy middle that could go either way. And most of these teams, to my great disbelief, nibble around the edges of their roster, and do not tend to make major changes.
I’ve never understood it. When you have 5 weeks of evidence on your team’s abilities, and the trajectory you’re on is middle of the pack, why not swing for the fences? It is time.
Propose that wacky 6-player for 6-player trade that never happens. See if players who are injured now but might influence a playoff run later this year (Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, Omarion Hampton) are available for pennies on the dollar. Try to get the best RB in the league for all 3 of the RBs you’ve been using and cobble together your other starters with MacGyver-level free agent creativity. (Or try to trade your best player for multiple reinforcements.) Either way, you know the arc that your current effort is on: Variance is a shake-up to that pre-destined likelihood and it increases the chances of landing somewhere you otherwise wouldn’t.
That increases the chances of you being worse at the same time it takes a shot at trying to get better – but who cares?! If you’re on the way to going 7-7, that won’t get you to the promised land either. There’s no difference between going 7-7 or 4-10 for fantasy purposes. But if you take the move that means plus or minus 3 wins, the “plus” possibilities give you a greater shot at glory.
Think of it this way: Definitionally, if you’re in standard 10- or 12- or 14- team league, there is only a one in 10 or 12 or 14 chance that you’ve actually lucked into the best team in the league (roughly – we won’t adjust for drafting ability here). But when two teams trade, more often than not at least one “wins” the trade and gets better (clunkers filled with about-to-be injured chess pieces notwithstanding). Similarly, every waiver move is an adjustment off of the status quo on draft day. Variance definitionally increases the chances that something better than your average draft capabilities can come together.
How many leagues have you ever seen won by a team who made no or very few roster moves? Who never or rarely changed their starting lineup to account for matchups and just relied on their “studs” 100% of the time? Those are usually your proverbial “ghost” teams that languish at the bottom of the standings and/or may not be re-invited to the league next year.
So don’t get wedded to your sunk costs. Roll the dice. Trade guys that seem like even talent just because it widens the possible outcomes for you. If you’re 5-0 with Josh Allen or Trey McBride, stay the course. If you’re 2-3 with those guys, test the market and see what kind of team makeover you can pull off.
Week 5 waiver names to watch
Bryce Young: He’s been bad. Let’s get that out of the way. But if he’s going to ever be usable again, the Cowboys and Jets the next two weeks would be the opportunity.
Hassan Haskins: He’ll get first crack at the Chargers’ RB gig with Hampton on IR and Najee Harris still ailing.
Kimani Vidal: But don’t sleep on Vidal either, who had monster production in college and may be the better player of the two.
Michael Carter: Fourth time is a charm for the Arizona RB position? Conner hurt, Benson hurt, Demercado in the doghouse for fumbling, and suddenly a practice squad player gets reps.
Kendre Miller: Kamara is getting less carries and his name is also popping up in trade rumors for teams like the Chargers with a sudden potential need at the position. The Saints have no reason to grind a veteran into dust when they can kick the tires on a young player to see what they have for the future in a lost season.
Troy Franklin: Clearly WR2 in Denver, there may not be huge games to be had here, but there’s a higher floor than expected for a mid-season replacement-caliber WR.
Isaiah Bond: Still not excited to buy most parts of Cleveland’s offense, but Gabriel looked better than expected in his debut and Bond is getting the injured Cedric Tillman’s targets.
Ryan Flournoy: I’m not sure what a Flournoy is, and I’m not sure I can ever recommend owning Dallas players, but if CeeDee Lamb stays out, he’ll keep being the beneficiary of more looks.
Kendrick Bourne/Jake Tonges: Depends on the health of various players in San Francisco, but someone has to catch passes there.
Mason Taylor: 19 targets in the past two weeks after 9 in the first three. The breakout is coming.
A.J. Barner: Has likely already had his best game of the season, but after that performance against the Bucs and at such a shallow position, he deserves to be rostered.
Patriots DST: Saints, Titans, Browns in their next three, with Jets, Bengals, and Giants sprinkled in the five weeks after that. If they are going to play like they did against the Bills, they are going to become a regular starting option, not just a streaming option, against that slate.
Packers DST: Sub-50% ownership in ESPN due to the Week 5 bye, and they’ll only get better with each week Parsons gets more involved.
