The New England Patriots are taking on an unfamiliar opponent in an unfamiliar location this week. Playing its first ever game in the German city of Munich, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel will face a Detroit Lions squad it hasn’t gone up against since 2022 — three years prior to Vrabel’s arrival.
So, to find out more about the Lions, we spoke with Ryan Mathews of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Pride of Detroit, the SB Nation community for all things Lions.
1. The Lions have been one of the least efficient
coverage teams in the league, but their pass rush has been ferocious. Do you think Detroit’s pass rush is enough to keep Drake Maye from playing more like he did in October than he did last week?
To answer that, we need to adjust one premise ever so slightly: Detroit’s pass rush is more very good than dominant, and its back-end coverage is still where Lions fans want to believe in the progress that’s been made over the past four games. The Lions sit seventh in the NFL in both pressure rate (41.2% of 354 dropbacks) and sacks (27), yet opposing offenses are still averaging 0.143 EPA per dropback against them—the fourth-worst mark in the league. However, over the last four games, the Lions are averaging 0.016 EPA per dropback, which has them ranked 20th — improvement!
Drake Maye is going to be their biggest test since Jordan Love came to Ford Field in Week 7. Love thrives on pushing the ball down the field to create big plays, and Detroit’s defense did a commendable job keeping him in check, relatively speaking. He had 10 deep pass attempts, the most among quarterbacks in Week 7, and his average depth of target was 10.9 yards, but his yards per attempt (6.09) ranked 21st and his pass success rate ranked 26th.
Detroit’s defense pressured Love on 17 of his dropbacks in that game, and that played a key role in putting a lid on the deep-passing attack, so they’re going to need to keep the pressure on Maye to get similar results from their secondary.
2. The Lions have one of the deepest groups of skill players in the NFL. Has anyone managed to slow this group down, and if so, how? And would playing man coverage against them be foolish?
Detroit’s skill position players do run deep. Be it Jameson Williams’ speed, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta’s craftiness in their route running and understanding of zone coverage, or Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability to do it all, they have plenty of ways to test opposing defenses.
Interestingly enough, Jared Goff ranks fourth out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA/dropback both against zone (0.194) and man (0.304) coverage — granted he’s only registered 29 dropbacks against man coverage per SumerSports — so it’s going to be interesting to see if New England sticks to their guns and plays as much man as they normally do.
3. Jahmyr Gibbs’ speed is the headliner when discussing the talented running back, but what else has allowed the Lions’ ground game to be so successful?
Gibbs’ speed doesn’t show up directly in the box score, but the underlying rushing metrics point to his contact balance and elusiveness as major drivers of Detroit’s ground attack. Across 177 carries for 847 yards (4.79 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns, Gibbs has forced 53 missed tackles (first in the NFL) and averages 3.33 yards after contact (t-12th). The explosive-play upside, generating 36.1% of his rushing yardage on carries of 12 or more yards. Backup Sione Vaki has come on as of late, offering solid physicality as a runner and a pass protector–albeit in limited action— averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 3.53 yards after contact across just 30 carries.
Schematically, Detroit leans heavily on outside zone, which accounts for 98 designed runs (excluding QB scrambles and kneels) at 4.92 yards per carry, but the offensive line has been inconsistent in their run blocking: the Lions rank 25th in stuffed rate, and it feels like the majority of that is on the big guys up front. Inside zone has actually been Detroit’s most efficient concept at 5.35 yards per carry and 0.156 EPA, largely because defenses can rarely afford to load the box against the Lions. Detroit’s facing eight or more defenders on just 15% of its 20 carries, compared to 40.8% for outside zone. Gap concepts like power and counter have struggled in small samples: ten carries for each concept, averaging 3.3 to 3.4 yards respectively.
4. Who are some underrated Lions playmakers who Patriots fans should know ahead of this game?
Looking strictly at skill-position production behind top headliners Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, there are three names that consistently pull their weight without always getting the national headlines.
Jameson Williams often gets typecast as a vertical threat, but he’s at his best when he’s catching passes through holes in zone coverage and making defenses pay with his speed after the catch. His elusiveness is a really underrated aspect of his game. Williams has turned 46 targets into 28 catches for 468 yards and five touchdowns so far this season, posting a strong 16.7 yards per catch — 21st in the NFL. Sam LaPorta is a reliable chain-mover over the middle, but his usage has dwindled in recent weeks ever since he publicly commented on his contract situation. Not saying, but I’m saying, you know. But maybe the most overlooked player in the Lions offense as of late is the aforementioned Sione Vaki. He’s settling well into a complementary role behind Gibbs, earning the trust of the coaching staff to the point where there have been whole series as of late where Gibbs scantily sees the field.
5. The Lions are seen as 2.5-point favorites for this weekend’s matchup. What happened if the Patriots pull off an upset? What happened if they lost their second game in a row?
The Patriots will have pulled off the upset if their offensive line provides enough protection for Maye to air it out for big explosive plays. On defense, if they stop the Lions’ run game and force them to operate from behind the sticks in the passing game, it’s highly likely New England will leave Germany with a victory. Detroit gets the win if they pressure Maye relentlessly and he continues to turn the ball over, setting up the Lions offense with short fields to put points on the board.
