The Boston Celtics will face the Philadelphia Sixers in the first round of the playoffs, and it is safe to say that they are the clear favorites. The Sixers have the 18th-best net rating (-0.3 per Cleaning The Glass) and will have to play without their best player, Joël Embiid. In the meantime, the Celtics have the fourth-best net rating, the second most prolific offense, and are among the top five defenses.
The regular season numbers are screaming that the Celtics shouldn’t be scared of the Sixers,
and yet, they shouldn’t be overlooked. One of the first areas where the Sixers could cause some trouble is turnover management.
Turnovers economy
This series will be about who is better at taking care of the ball. On that front, the Celtics have been a step ahead this season, with the second-best turnover rate just behind the OKC Thunder. However, defensively, they aren’t very aggressive and rank pretty low in forced turnovers (23rd in the league).
While the Sixers aren’t as elite as the Celtics when it comes to taking care of the ball, they are still very solid, with the sixth-lowest turnover rate. Defensively, they are doing a great job of creating turnovers, ranking eighth in opponents’ turnover rate.
One of the reasons the Celtics dominated this season was their advantage in the possession battle. On the turnover side of this battle, the Sixers might have an edge, but the Celtics should be able to compensate with rebounding.
While both Boston and Philly are among the top ten teams in offensive rebounding, the Celtics are also elite at protecting the glass defensively (6th in the league), a clear advantage compared to the Sixers, who are among the worst teams in defensive rebounding. Creating extra possessions after misses will be key, especially if the Sixers are controlling the turnover economy in the series.
Dealing with pace
In this first round of the playoffs, the Celtics will face the type of players they have had the most difficulty dealing with over the past few years: small, quick guards.
Hard not to think back to the season opener against the Sixers in October 2025 when looking at the numbers above. Both Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe went off and made the Celtics’ defense collapse. The two combined for 74 points and added 9 assists. What stood out from that game was the Celtics’ inability to deal with their speed.
The speed was even more noticeable when the Sixers went small without Joël Embiid. That night, the Sixers won by one despite losing the Embiid minutes by 16. It might sound counterintuitive, but Embiid’s injury could be more problematic for the Celtics than for the Sixers. The pace increased without the former MVP, and that is exactly what the Celtics struggled with against Maxey and Edgecombe.
The return of Paul George will have a similar impact to what Jayson Tatum brings to the Celtics. The Sixers now have a wing who can stabilize the rebounding, help on drives, and protect the rim while they play small-ball.
When PG is on the court without Embiid, the Sixers still post a positive net rating, while it drops to -3.8 when both are off. The Celtics will have to maximize those minutes and try to contain the high speed of both Maxey and Edgecombe.
The Celtics might not have the personnel to stop them individually, but collectively, they have shown this season that their defensive shell rarely breaks. How will it hold against the Sixers’ high-speed backcourt? Game 1 on Sunday will give us a first answer.
