Where does the Seattle Seahawks’ Super Bowl champion quarterback fit in the NFL’s landscape? A lot higher than he used to be.
The Athletic’s Mike Sando compiles an annual survey of 50 coaches and executives to rank the starting quarterbacks (plus would-be young starters and lingering veterans who are borderline starters/backups) by tiers. A Tier 1 quarterback is the best of the best, whereas a Tier 5 quarterback is is anywhere from an unknown to not a viable starter.
Sam Darnold has had to take the
difficult road to work his way up the rankings. From purgatory with the New York Jets to the Lombardi Trophy with Seattle, Darnold has moved up a tier for a third consecutive year. His aggregate ranking is 14th, tied with Baker Mayfield.
Check out some of the quotes:
Darnold’s climb over the past three seasons is rare for an established starter in the 13-year history of QB Tiers.
“Sam played his ass off the last two years,” a head coach said.
Darnold’s improvement from 4.00 to 2.36 is a full tier better than runner-up Daniel Jones among the 19 quarterbacks who appeared in all three surveys and had debuted before 2024.
[…]
“There are so many factors that determine a quarterback’s success, and Darnold’s the best example of it,” an exec said. “To get him into the right system, with the right coaches, and you have a game-breaking receiver, and a good defense. It’s a lot easier.”
[…]
“Sam is at his best when you run the ball, play defense and then he’s not in position to turn the ball over,” an exec said, “but when his number is called, he can make big plays. If they don’t start running the football, they probably don’t win the Super Bowl.”
For more context, a Tier 2 quarterback, “carries his team sometimes,” “handles pure-passing situations in doses or has other dimensions that elevate him above Tier 3,” and “has a hole or two in his game.” The Tier 2 range starts with Lamar Jackson at No. 5 and cuts off at Jalen Hurts at No. 17. The Tier 3 “Legit starter but needs better running game or defense to win” quarterback starts with Bo Nix and ends with the 2026 version of Kirk Cousins. The only Tier 1 QBs are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow.
The one sort of critical remark re Darnold is not completely unfounded. Sando noted that Darnold has had the best support from his defense and special teams over the past two seasons, which means he’s been in one of the more optimal environments for a quarterback to succeed. The good news? He’s succeeding instead of dragging a talented team down. In many respects, this is not too dissimilar from Russell Wilson getting to benefit from an elite defense and special teams unit at the start of his career. It’s almost as if being good to great in all of the most important areas of football is extremely valuable, and putting everything on the QB’s plate is not optimal!
I have no issue with Darnold’s tier ranking even if I’d separate the tie and put Darnold above Mayfield. I’d also rank him above No. 11 Caleb Williams, who’s being over-stated in my opinion and we should probably wait a little bit to see if he can build on 2025 by not having to rely on so many improbable fourth quarter comebacks. Brock Purdy is still in Tier 2, which is totally fine when you consider he was an MVP finalist in 2023 and played well under difficult circumstances in 2025. Every Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB except Justin Herbert has at least won a playoff start, while 12 out of 17 have made a Conference Championship, and eight have reached a Super Bowl. These are the two tiers you want your QB to be in, otherwise you have functionally no shot at a championship run.
Seattle is fortunate to have another Tier 1-2 quarterback to build around, and even if you think Darnold should individually be ranked higher within that specific tier, that he keeps improving his ranking is a sign of respect and acknowledgement of improvement from the league’s evaluators.
In case you’re wondering, former Seahawks starter Geno Smith has plunged all the day down to Tier 4 (“Veteran who ideally would not be a full-season starter”) at No.30.
Make your voice heard in the comments as far as Darnold’s ranking!
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