Before anyone jumps down my throat about how early in the season we are, Iowa State has already played as many games in Europe as TCU has total while also playing twice as many games in America than the Frogs have. #Analytics aside, the Big 12 doesn’t look anything like most pundits thought it would just a month ago. Preseason predictions have proven preposterous and the conference has taken clearer shape after 3.5 weeks of football. The Frogs are the beneficiaries of another week of not losing while other programs
have halted their media momentum. Now that the sample size is large enough, the “most wide open conference” has narrowed their field to 4 quartiles.
Top Quartile: Ideal Contenders
Iowa State, Utah, Texas Tech, TCU
I know Brett Yormark had a Gael-force exhale when the Cyclones blew past Iowa on a 54-yard field goal with a minute left in regulation. The conference needed a flagship program to tie its success to (a la Clemson in the ACC) and the responsibility fell on Matt Campbell’s shoulders when they knocked off K-State in Week 0. Iowa State could be the real deal this year, the experience they’ve returned looks impactful and Rocco Becht is experienced in this system. Not in the sense that he’s just had time in it, but that he also found success in it to the tune of over 7000 yards, 54 touchdowns, and 21 wins over 2 seasons and counting.
Another real deal is Utah. After pounding UCLA and dismantling Cal Poly, Devon Dampier looks poised for a 1st team all-conference campaign and at least a conference newcomer of the year. The last time Kyle Wittingham’s Utah team went 5-7, they bounced back for a 9-win season (2013-14). With a tested o-line & d-line, dominating the trenches in the Big 12 isn’t a huge ask for a team built for trench warfare like the Utes. With that, I’m highly anticipating their upcoming matchup with Tech to open their conference slate in two weeks.
In their own right, Texas Tech has certainly held their own. The 21st ranked team in the country has scored posted video game numbers against a pair of teams that were probably better off just staying home and playing video games themselves. They really ramp up the schedule against one of the two remaining Pac 12 (I refer to them as the 2Pac now) schools: Oregon State, who has lost to Cal & Fresno State respectively. It’ll be interesting to see the impact of lower competition in games 1-3 and what the product is for, what should be, a titanic matchup between the Red Raiders and Utah in week 4.
Normally a rising tide should raise all ships, so you’d guess that a sinking tide would lower all ships. Fortunately, you guessed wrong! The Frogs are still basking in the glow of defeating Bill Belichick’s UNC squad, regardless of their unimpressive win over Charlotte. Some of the other Big 12 teams would kill for an unimpressive win over a team like Charlotte as opposed to whatever they served up on Saturday. The chatter about TCU’s dark horse contention status has caught fire after week 1 and handling business against ACU this week should fan those flames.
Second Quartile: “Hey, these guys are technically still undefeated”
BYU, Arizona, Houston, UCF
In the world of CFP committees and “strong losses,” it’s not lost on this Frogs O’ War contributor that you take the field with the intention to win and that’s the only thing within the power of these teams each week. Fielding a team that hasn’t conceded a loss garners more merit than losing to a good team and this quartet should be recognized for such. BYU could sneak into the top contending quartile before long, especially after reviving Pac 12 after dark to stomp Stanford 27-3.
Arizona & Houston have the benefit of a talented quarterback leading each of their teams and both look comfortable in their own right. Noah Fifita isn’t having any issues spreading the ball around, despite losing Tet McMillan to the Carolina Panthers in the NFL draft. Connor Wiegman has thrived in a dimmer spotlight and offense that doesn’t directly self-sabotage the quarterback position like A&M tends to. Arizona has the chance to push K-State further down the well of despair at home this weekend and Houston has a prove-it game against Deion and Colorado when they come to H-Town.
Oh yeah, UCF qualifies for this category. I guess we’ll know more after they play UNC, I just can’t get too fired up about Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T. This lack of attention is probably the kind of hubris that allowed them back into the game last year but I’m too old to change.
Third Quartile: The Disappointment Zone
Arizona State, Kansas, Baylor, Colorado
Arizona State is the headliner here for obvious reasons. Blown coverage is an understatement when describing that last series, but Leavitt & Co. looked like a shell of their CFP selves in their visit to Starkville over the weekend. Maybe we’re catching Mississippi State on the front end of a solid bounce back, to give ASU the benefit of the doubt, but playoff teams finish games.
Speaking of finishing strong, Baylor overcame a self-inflicted deficit to SMU by struggling defensively and shining offensively. I had to squint my eyes at Sawyer Robertson because I thought I was watching Bryce Petty or Seth Russell at times. Not because he reminds me of either of them but because of the bygone era I remember of Baylor out-offending their poor defense. Dave Aranda needs to clean up this act, that sunk them against Auburn, before Big 12 play or they could be stuck in the disappointment zone all year.
Kansas doesn’t really belong here, they’ve had 3 solid showings given their circumstances. However, if you’re up 21-3 at any point in any game there should be some level of disappointment when you don’t emerge victorious. Jalon Daniels has played well and the Jayhawks will surely surprise us with a victory or two down the stretch. For now, they’re just fun & flashy.
Fourth Quartile: Freefall
Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
I vacillated back & forth between Colorado and Cincinnati as the last team in free fall, but Cincinnati has less to lose and lower expectations so free fall isn’t a bad place for them to be. Colorado, however, should be disappointed in their standing so their zone is more fitting. I bypassed the rules I self-imposed in this article by addressing them in the final quartile so my credibility may be shot. I’ll use the last few sentences of your attention span to pose this question: what the heck?
A. What the heck does Kansas State do to right their ship? Matt Wells as the solo OC is not benefitting Avery Johnson, he can’t sit in the pocket like they’re asking him to. With as many coordinators as K-State has had hired away, it might be time one was fired away.
B. What the heck does Mike Gundy do for retirement? His deal was reworked to minimize his buyout within the past couple years so greener pastures have to be calling his name. The greater fear is subjecting the team to a year of Head Coach Doug Meacham, an unfathomable prospect. If only the NCAA had truly become the NFL, this team would be ripe for a good tank.
C. What the heck will happen to West Virginia? I feel like they’re going to beat Pitt for some reason but I have no confidence that they’ll find a rhythm this year under Rich Rodriguez. Ultimate chaos time for the mountaineers and there’s no better place for football chaos than Morgantown. Please don’t let TCU fall into that chaos trap in October.
