It’s been a bit of a tradition around here to have a Community Bold Predictions post. Last week, Demetrius put a boldest prediction post on our Feed. We got some interesting feedback. Let’s sift through these and have a look at some of the great ones.
Win the whole thing
This is a mainstay of the predictions post. Running the table and going all the way always gets a mention. Is it bold? Sure, I think so. It’s been a minute since the Braves have made a deep playoff run. They haven’t advanced to the NLCS since their World
Series run. Right now, they’re at +1400 to win it all. That suggests around a 7% chance to win it. That seems a tad low to me, considering how fast the Braves got out of the gate. Yankees are have about a 22% chance to make it to the World Series to lose.
This post is how you play. Pro-Braves and around 2-3% chance of happening? Certified bold.
Walt puts the hurt on WWE
If there was a MMA competition for MLB personnel, I would not want to be in Walt’s bracket. A little taekwondo, a little ground and pound. That’s a no from me. I do think Weiss has to be the leading candidate right now for the National League Manager of the Year competition. MOY is basically awarded to the manager of a team that improves the most year-to-year. And Atlanta’s 2026 is the opposite of last year so far.
Weiss is maybe 30% odds for Manager of the Year for me right now. Summer Slam? I’m not telling him no, even if the Braves will be beating down the Nats that weekend. Bold for me.
Luke Williams gets a save
The MLB rules don’t state it exactly but do imply that a player listed as a shortstop cannot get a save. However, ones classified as a two-way player can and pitchers do. He has a career 54 wRC+ and no true position. He has a lifetime 3.27/4.47/5.13 line and a 61 MPH eephus. So you can squint and say he might have more of a MLB job as a pitcher. That route would might start in Single-A Rome though. Maybe not this season, but soon?
Bold? Oh please please please make this happen, baseball gods.
Braves finish with best run differential in baseball
I’m very curious about this one. So let’s dig in. The Dodgers were +48 coming into tonight (and looking like +57 after they’re done with the Rockies). The Cubs are next at +34.
Coming into this season, the Braves were short five starting pitchers, Sean Murphy, Ha-Seong Kim, and Daysbel Hernandez. Spencer Strider will miss at least a month. It hasn’t mattered. The Braves are 16-7 and in first place at +62 in run differential. They’re second in baseball in wRC+, second in wOBA, second in OPS. They’re first in ERA, sixth in FIP, fourth best at walk prevention.
They’re getting big contributions from the 17th to 26th players on the team. Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes have been great. Even Martin Perez and Jorge Mateo have chipped in. The Braves are also taking pitchers that pick up three-inning saves and cutting them or sending them to Gwinnett. That’s seemingly one large benefit of having an open competition for several spots. Guys threw themselves into Spring Training, and that’s continued into the season. Interestingly the only open lineup spot that had a lot of coverage, left field, has not been great outside of super-utility Mauricio Dubon.
Their starters have been great as well. Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson have been on fire. Michael Harris’ Savant page is filled with giant red bars. Chris Sale has been dominant as well. So they’re gonna run away with the run differential title. Eh, maybe? Let’s look at the other side.
Fangraphs Depth Charts isn’t a Braves fan
These are the Fangraphs Depth Charts estimates right now. This has the Braves’ hitters in eighth in WAR, and the pitchers at tenth. WAR isn’t perfect (and neither is projected WAR), but it can give you a good idea because it’s measured in runs above replacement. So it’s a decent proxy for run differential. These get updated throughout the season.
They do a great job at Fangraphs, but I have a couple of issues with it. One issue with Depth Charts is that it is underselling the contributions of the currently injured players and fringe players (or at least fringe coming into the season). Are Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach going to throw fewer than 60 innings each? Is Spencer Strider perma-broken at 120 innings and 2.0 WAR? Bryce Elder is only getting 110 innings, when he already has 30 and led the team last year?
Are the Braves keeping JR Ritchie and Didier Fuentes down on the farm for under 30 MLB innings apiece? JR has a sub 1.00 ERA in Gwinnett right now. Didier is mowing down practically everybody and looks completely bored in Triple-A for my eyes. With Strider coming back, Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach behind him, and two prospects looking to break down the door, the entry to the Braves’ rotation is going to get higher. They have Martin Perez right now, who has been good and someone that the Braves will likely keep as depth. But he’s not long for the rotation, and may not stay through this week. I think the fifth starter in going to be getting 1.5-2.0 WAR per 150 innings pretty soon, and the top end might be closer to 4.
The other issue is that while I don’t doubt their math, the numbers going into 2026 they they were mathing with have been soured by 2025. A lot of those poor numbers was the injury misfortune and results from the hitting approach from last season. Last year the hitting approach forced some aggressive players into worrying about swing rate and cutting down their swing with two strikes. But look at the turnaround that Michael Harris II has made. He’s just concerned with killing the ball now, and that’s it. And it’s handy because he can do that.
These factors along with some weird choices make me doubt the estimates. Drake Baldwin at 2.9? After a 3.1 WAR rookie year while playing zero DH? He’s already at 0.9 WAR now. Mauricio Dubon at 1.1 WAR was always silly to me. He’s already at 0.6. You can see most of the logic being applied, and FG is very good. But if they’re off to the downside as much as they were to the upside last year, the Braves can win the team WAR title and likely the run differential one as well.
The Braves schedule has been light so far
The Braves will play a heavy schedule early (29 in the first 31 days), but the competition will be light. There’s only one 2025 playoff team in that time, and it’s the Phillies. I think Philly will piece it together soon, but right now they’re a train wreck. It’s been the Kansas City Royals, the (don’t call me Sacramento or any city) Athletics, D-backs, Angels, Guardians, Marlins, Nats, and those underperforming Phillies. It hasn’t been murderer’s row. And they are killing them, like any top team should. But let’s pump the brakes a little. They haven’t met the NL West or NL Central. And outside of the Rockies, they’re decent to outstanding. The Guardians look good, but the Braves haven’t met the Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs yet. And those look to be the top teams.
The Dodgers might lap the field
Speaking of the Dodgers, they are punishing the Rockies tonight. (Though along with the White Sox, Colorado is barely in professional baseball.) The Dodgers will field Yamamoto, Glasnow, Sheehan, Snell, Ohtani in the rotation. They have Ohtani, Tucker, Betts, Freeman, Smith, Muncy for hitters and on and on. They’re pegged at 47 WAR this season, far and away the best. It’s almost not fair the wealth of talent and pocketbook.
The TLDR
And yet, the Braves have the Dodgers beaten by 5 runs in the run differential race. Can the Braves outrun the Dodgers, injuries, and a tougher schedule? I’ll put it at around 20 percent. Definitely a bold prediction. Let’s just make sure they can beat the Dodgers in the playoffs when it really counts.
