Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 25 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Huskie Stadium — DeKalb, IL
- Spread: Northern Illinois (-6.5)
- Over/under: 41.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 25-25-2
- Last meeting: Ball State 25, Northern Illinois 23 — October 26, 2024
- Current streak: Ball State, 3 (2022-24)
Setting the scene
Another rivalry trophy is shelved for the foreseeable future. Ball State and Northern Illinois first met in 1941, and in 2008, Reneé Bemis sculpted the Bronze Stalk Trophy for the two midwest schools to
compete for. Ball State remains in the MAC, but Northern Illinois is off to the Mountain West this summer to separate the longstanding rivalry.
The Cardinals have the Huskies’ number as of late, winning five of the last six since the 2009-18 stretch where NIU rattled off 10-straight victories. One important feature about the Bronze Stalk is it always comes down to the wire. The 2023 and 2024 meetings were decided on Jackson Courville game-winning field goals. The 2022 was settled in double-overtime. The Huskies’ last win in 2021 was on a John Richardson buzzer-beating field goal. Each of the last seven installments dating back to 2018 were decided by one score.
The all-time series is deadlocked at 25-25-2, so the winner of Saturday’s affair in DeKalb receives bragging rights until the day the programs schedule each other in non-conference action.
Ball State Cardinals outlook
Ball State (3-4, 2-1 MAC) already matched last season’s win total. While the Mike Uremovich era was off to a rocky start in non-conference play, the Cardinals have righted the ship with a pair of MAC wins. Most notably, Ball State knocked off reigning champion Ohio, storming back from a 14-0 second half deficit to stun the Bobcats.
Last week the Cardinals handled Akron in a 42-28 shootout in their best offensive showing under Uremovich. However, sandwiched between the Ohio and Akron wins is a futile 42-0 defeat to Western Michigan. Thus, Ball State is still searching for consistency, especially on the road. The Cardinals are 0-4 away from Muncie, and they’ll look to change that fortune in DeKalb.
Ball State is 128th in scoring offense at 17.7 points per game and 131st in yards, but the Cardinals found a groove last week in the run game. Qua Ashley attained a season-high 143 rushing yards while mobile quarterback Kiael Kelly added 58. Ashley has proven a reliable first option, collecting 5.3 yards per carry on the season. Kelly’s agility and shiftiness make him a viable runner too, but Ball State has allowed 24 sacks — tied for the fifth-most in the FBS — largely offsetting Kelly’s rushing numbers.
Kelly has 13 starts as a Cardinal, but his career-high in passing is 201. He averages 20.7 attempts per game and his impact is primarily felt in the run game. However, he can create the occasional big play with his arm — hitting Qian Magwood down the sideline for a 43-yard touchdown to upset Ohio.
The Cardinal defense is also showing inconsistency. At its best, the unit shut down Ohio’s explosive offense and limited the Bobcats to 14 first half points. The capability is there, but that needs to be the standard performance. Ball State ranks 116th in scoring defense and permits 422 yards per game, ranking below 100th in containing both the air and ground.
The star of the unit is defensive end Nathan Voorhis, who ranks second in the FBS and first in the MAC with 9.0 sacks. Voorhis is a determinant of how the defense performs. In three wins, he’s tallied seven sacks. In four losses, he only has two. Although Ball State generates pressure at the line of scrimmage, it hasn’t translated to the turnover battle. The Cardinals have just five takeaways on the season, but the defense is finding other ways to thrive. One involves a lack of penalties, and Ball State ranks first in the MAC in the category.
Northern Illinois Huskies outlook
Northern Illinois (1-6, 0-3 MAC) is not enjoying its swan song in the MAC. The Huskies ride a 6-game losing streak, looking for a sign of life as they sit on the fringe of missing their first bowl game in three years.
Almost all of NIU’s problems can be traced to the offense. The Huskies no longer field the nation’s last-ranked scoring offense after dropping a season-high 21 points on Ohio. But they’re second-to-last at 12.3 points per game and also check in at second-to-last in total yardage. NIU produced three touchdowns against the Bobcats, receiving a necessary offensive boost from quarterback Josh Holst and the run game. Holst became the first Huskie quarterback to eclipse 140 yards this year in a 161-yard outing, connecting on 21-of-29 passes with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Holst also produced a season-high by a Huskie quarterback in the ground game, adding 48 yards to supplement a solid performance by feature back Telly Johnson Jr. NIU has always been ground-first under head coach Thomas Hammock (and really, dating back to the Jordan Lynch days). Johnson averages 6.2 yards per carry and sometimes rattles off the big one — scoring 74 and 80-yard breakaway touchdowns this year. Secondary back Lazaro Rogers also scored from 76 this year, but NIU needs a more consistent run game outside of the occasional explosive.
Only option attacks Army and Rice average fewer passing yards per game than the Huskies. When dropping back, NIU almost always targets DeAree Rogers. The standout Division II transfer has 35 receptions for 396 yards and two touchdowns. However, NIU needs another receiver to establish himself as a valid No. 2 option. No other Huskie (running backs and tight ends included) has more than 12 receptions or 99 receiving yards in 2025.
Despite wielding a 1-6 record, Northern Illinois’ defense is a dominant force. The offense has placed the defense in tough positions with turnovers and comprising field position battles, yet the Huskies stood strong — outside of last week’s Ohio game. NIU allowed 538 yards and 48 points, yielding 40+ in a game for the first time since the 2022 regular season finale. Otherwise, the unit’s been phenomenal, limiting Maryland to 20 and San Diego State to 6 while mucking up games at the line of scrimmage.
Middle linebacker Quinn Urwiler is second in the FBS with 83 tackles after recording double-digit tackles in six starts, and he has 5.0 tackles for loss in a likely All-MAC season. Filip Maciorowski also shines from the linebacker corps with 52 tackles. With only six takeaways, NIU doesn’t have the most significant turnover output, but safeties Muhammed Jammeh and Jasper Beeler combine for three interceptions and a forced fumble.
Prediction
It’s the final Bronze Stalk, and the last seven meetings suggest this one will come down to the wire — with a possible game-winning field goal at the end. Thus, it’s important to keep tabs on the kickers Andrew Glass (Northern Illinois, 6-of-8 on the year) and Carson Holmer (Ball State, 3-of-6 on the year) because they may be called upon for late-game heroics.
This one will unquestionably be low-scoring given Northern Illinois’ consistency on defense and Ball State’s usual lack of offensive output — although both trends deviated last week. With both defenses recording routine stops, this one is likely decided by a turnover at an inopportune time, setting the opposing offense up for a scoring opportunity.
Prediction: Ball State 13, Northern Illinois 10
