When: Tuesday March 17 – 9:15 PM
Where: Dayton
TV: TruTV
Opponent: Texas Longhorns (SEC)
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 83-82 / NC State 83-82
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 20-13, 10-8
- Rankings: KP #34, BT #38
- NET: 36 (Q1: 5-8, Q2: 6-4, Q3: 5-0, Q4: 4-1) – 7th highest NET in the ACC
Wolfpack Season So Far:
The answer to “how the season has gone” will draw a lot of opinions. Ranging from “Wade hasn’t shown me much”, to “I hate the braggadocio”, to “let LSU have him”, to “he missed on the roster build” all the way to some variation on “the signs are positive, he’s going to be better.” I tend toward the latter.
Coach Wade is not going anywhere, I invite you to join me in the ‘half full’ side of the room.
In his introductory press conference, he promised to finish the season in the top half of the league (he did) and to make the NCAA tournament (he did – barely). But I don’t think anyone, starting with Coach Wade himself, feels like we got what we expected from all the noise last Spring. And when you compare his season with that of the other new ACC coaches, UVA’s Odom (NCAAT 3 seed 29-5), Miami’s Lucas (NCAAT 7 seed 25-8) who were outstanding, and FSU’s Loucks finished the season strong (18-15 with the same 10-8 ACC record as NC State), there is a hint of disappointment in the air.
But a little NCAA tournament success could go a long way toward clearing the air and getting the faithful pumped for the future.
“ … we’re not complaining about being in. We’re in the thing. We got a chance and now it’s on us to play better and to play well.” Coach Wade on being in the NCAA tournment, even though it’s the play-in round.
Opponent Overview:
Sean Miller and Will Wade each took the reins at major conference teams this season. There are some similarities in how their first seasons went:
- Miller prevailed in the first meeting between the two in their new roles, 102-97. But he had to hit 16 3PT shots (you’re welcome!) to do it, the most Texas made all season.
- Sean went 9-9 in the SEC, and Will went 10-8 in the ACC.
- Sean went 6-9 in Q1 games, and Will went 5-8.
- Both have some inexplicable losses, Sean lost a home game to Miss State, Will lost a home game to Georgia Tech.
Texas lost to some big name OOC teams this season, including Duke (-15), UVA (-19), and UConn (-8) and beat one, NC State (+5). More on that one below.
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 18-14, 9-9
- Rankings: KP #37, BT #45
- NET: 42 (Q1: 6-9, Q2: 1-4, Q3: 3-1, Q4: 7-0) – 9th highest NET in the SEC
Their Season So Far:
Player Notes:
Previous game notes:
- Defense was scarce by both teams
- Darrion Williams took a hard foul just before halftime and it slowed him for the rest of this game and several games that followed.
- Texas hit 16 3PT shots (8 in each half), tying the most ever made by an NC State opponent. They shot 50% for the game.
- The Longhorn’s Jordan Pope had the hot hand, 28 points (7-13 from 3PT)
- Copeland had a career high with 28 points; Lubin (23) and McNeil (20) also topped 20
- Williams, Holloman, and Breed fouled out – Texas also had two players foul out
Texas shot 60% / 62% / 90% in the first half and had a 15-point lead with under 2 minutes until the half, but the Wolfpack cut it to a 10-point deficit at the half.
The Wolfpack tightened it up in the second half, tying the game a couple of times and holding a 1-point lead once, but the Longhorns shot 52% / 42% / 83% in the second and kept the Pack at arm’s length.
What to watch for:
- Rebound from Losing Streaks – Both teams have slumped at the end of the season, both losing 5 of the final 6 games. Each lost three of those games to NCAAT teams.
- Offensively oriented – Both teams are rated top 20 in offensive efficiency, NC State is ranked 86th and Texas 112th in defensive efficiency.
- Fouls – That first game was so long ago (11/26) and it was the third game in three days – so there may be nothing to compare. HOWEVER, that game was an ugly foul fest. 48 fouls called. Both teams had 2 starters foul out and another ended the game with 4.
- 3PT Shooting – The 3PT shot should be available. Texas’ opponents are averaging 37.5% in SEC play.
- Williams – DW has not made a 2PT field goal (only 3PT shots) since the Duke game. He needs to get engaged and show us ’Tournament Darrion’ that impressed everyone last season. NC State will not do much in the tournament without that guy. Watch the beginning of the game to see if CWW immediately runs plays to get Darrion going.
- NCST – record watch – McNeil has 102 made 3PT shots. DJ Horne’s record is 105 (88 reg. season, 17 post season) The NC State leaderboard for 3PT shots made in a season is DJ Horne 105, Rodney Monroe/Scott Wood with 104.
- SWAIN watch – Dailyn Swain is currently the only player in a major conference to lead his team in at least five major stat categories: scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and minutes.
Prediction:
The first half of the NC State Revenge Tour 2026 begins in Dayton Tuesday and caravans to Portland Thursday.
- NC State gets revenge for the early season Maui loss in the play-in game against Texas.
- They follow that by getting revenge for last season’s early season 11-point loss in San Diego in the round of 64 against BYU .
- In the round of 32, the Wolfpack ends Kennesaw State’s Cinderella dreams – that shoe has been filled.
- And in the Sweet 16, the Wolfpack meets Miami again to take revenge for the one they gave away at home earlier this season.
- Four down – three to go
It starts with the Longhorns. The Pack tried playing only offense and just fouling in lieu of defense in the first game. This time they’ll add defense. Darrion Williams and Matt Able are difference makers this time and the Wolfpack wins 80-69.
