We already looked at some of the bounce back candidates for the Pittsburgh Penguins during the 2026-27 season, so now it’s time to take a look at some players on the opposite side of that spectrum that could be candidates to regress a little next season.
There were a lot of Penguins players that exceeded expectations, and quite a few that had career years. When that happens you are always at the risk for a little bit of a slide back to reality.
At this point we are only looking at players that are currently
under contract for next season, so somebody like Anthony Mantha (who is definitely a regression candidate next season no matter where he plays) is not going to be included.
So let’s look at some players that are.
Justin Brazeau
Brazeau was one of the Penguins free agent signings last summer, and also one of the bigger surprises from the season with a career-high 17 goals and 34 points.
In some ways, however, his regression kind of already started.
After scoring 12 goals with 20 points in his first 24 games through the end of December, he finished the regular season with just five goals and 14 total points over the final 40 games. He did play through some injuries over the course of the season, but he never really recaptured that early season magic, while there was a noticeable drop in his production.
Brazeau is an interesting player because at every level of his career he’s been a late-bloomer. It’s always taken him a year or two to figure things out, gain his confidence, and then fully break out offensively. Was that the case this season? And was it something he can build on?
He has great size, he plays a physical game and he has sneaky good hands and offensive instincts for a player with his build. He didn’t just score garbage, junk goals this season. He scored on some really talented, skilled plays as well. But even with all of that being the case I’m not really sure there’s another level for him to reach beyond what we saw this year.
Even if he is just a 15-goal, 25-30 point player next season there can still be some value in that as a bottom-six player, but we may have already seen his most productive hockey.
Egor Chinakhov
I am not saying I expect Chinakhov to regress, but I am saying there is at least the potential for it.
Honestly? I think he’s more likely to build on what he did after the in-season trade and continue to blossom into the top-line player the Columbus Blue Jackets always thought he would be. The talent is clearly there, he is in a good environment, and sometimes a player just needs a fresh start with a change of scenery.
But that is also not a guarantee.
The jury is still very much out here, and you do have to at least take into consideration that 17.3 shooting percentage after the trade.
He has never scored on that high of a percentage in his career. That is always a potential red flag no matter the circumstances.
Having said that, that’s not an outrageous number, and it’s not unheard of for a player with his shot quality and his skill to maintain a higher than average shooting percentage. And even if it does regress a little, increased shot volume and more power play time can help make up for that. But the knock on him in Columbus was inconsistency where he would show stretches of top-line ability before following it up with something far less than that.
Basically, we’re in a “wait-and-see” mode here.
The potential for a big year is absolutely there.
But so is the potential for a step backwards.
The jury is out.
Bryan Rust
Rust is a great Penguin, and he should always be held in high regard for what he has helped accomplish here and the career he has put together for himself.
He literally worked his way up from a run-of-the-mill, mid-round draft pick, turned himself into an NHL player, and then consistently built himself up from a depth player to a top-line player. It is a fantastic combination of player development and work ethic coming together and creating one hell of a career.
It is exactly how you want to see the process work. He has also aged like a fine wine and seemingly gotten better every year he has been in the league. Even as he gets into his mid-30s he is still producing like a first-liner and approaching 30 goals.
While there is not really objective evidence to suggest this based on his play the past two seasons, the harsh reality is that he is approaching the age where, eventually, that production is going to slow down. The mid-30s can be really tough years for non-star-level players. Sometimes it is a gradual decline. Sometimes it is rapid. Whatever the case here, we at least have to consider the possibility that a 34-year-old Rust might start to show some signs of slowing down.
Part of this is just a vibe-based opinion, but part of it is also just the reality of the relationship between father time and professional athletes. He might still be useful, but at some point he is going to stop scoring at a 30-goal pace.
