It looks as though the NBA is getting serious about adding two teams to their 30-team private club in the near future.
The reports have focused on Las Vegas and Seattle as the likeliest destinations for new teams to bring the NBA to 32 members.
What does that mean for the Atlanta Hawks? Well, during the offseason of the new franchises’ entry to the league, an expansion draft will be held. This means certain players will be at risk of being taken from the roster in a one-way transaction.
That begs the
question: which players should the Hawks protect in the event of an expansion draft?
What are the rules of an NBA expansion draft?
For this exercise, we are going to pretend the expansion draft is happening this upcoming offseason and not farther into the future when the teams would actually join the NBA.
Why? Well for one, I have no idea who will be on the roster by then.
And two, we’re just having fun here.
The rules for this section largely comes from the ever-helpful explainer of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) written by Larry Coon.
The simplified version is that the two expansion teams will fill out the majority of their rosters by selecting unprotected contracted players from the other 30 rosters. The two teams will alternate picks in a draft format. A maximum of one player from each of the 30 existing teams can be selected, but teams can also negotiate trades with the expansion teams to avoid having a player selected, for example.
Unrestricted free agents can neither be protected by the prior team nor selected by the expansion team(s). That rules out the following four current Atlanta Hawks players:
- CJ McCollum (expiring standard contract)
- Gabe Vincent (expiring standard contract)
- Jock Landale (expiring standard contract)
- Caleb Houstan (expiring standard contract)
Anyone else can either be protected or left unprotected, including two-way players (most of which are considered restricted free agents if they’ve been in the league for three or fewer years). The Hawks along with the 29 other existing teams would then protect eight players who cannot be selected, leaving everyone vulnerable to be taken from the roster.
Let’s dive in.
Locks to be protected
This section is self-explanatory. There are some players that are simply going nowhere given their age, production and contract status. These three are central core members to the future of the Atlanta Hawks.
The “well duhs”:
- Jalen Johnson
- Dyson Daniels
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Everyone else
It gets a bit tricky here.
Certainly, you don’t want to lose any players for free, but sometimes teams will leave players unprotected if their contracts outpace their production. So, the expansion draft can be a useful gambit to get an onerous contract off your books — or simply free up a roster spot.
I’ll go through the remaining 11 players here before deciding which five to add to the core three above as the eight total protected players.
Main remaining rotation players:
The last remaining unmentioned starter, Onyeka Okongwu, has become one of the premier stretch big men in the league. After beginning the season coming off the bench, he has logged 52 starts and ranks in the top 40 in the NBA in minutes to this point.
You can nitpick his true standing on defense among the league’s starting centers, but he just turned 25 and is signed for two more years at $16.5 million per year. Even if his best role is as a backup 4 and 5, his contract and age profile is still very valuable.
Zaccharie Risacher hasn’t quite taken the leap forward we envisioned at the end of last season. But he has yet to turn 21, still provides hustle and shooting off the bench, and plays a position of value (I mean, did you see how many picks Mikal Bridges and Desmond Bane went for recently?).
I don’t think there’s much of a counter argument here.
Jonathan Kuminga is a recent acquisition, but his upside has been easily apparent. For next season, the Hawks own a $24.3 million team option on his contract meaning he would be eligible to be selected (giving the expansion team ownership of that option).
But with the Hawks reportedly already mulling extension possibilities, you simply can’t let an expansion team pluck him from you at this moment.
It’s a mixed bag with Corey Kispert, who is an inconsistent shooter (just 34% shooting from deep with the Hawks) and finisher near the rim. Additionally, his defense is anywhere between bad and actively problematic.
But if you squint, you can see a dribble-pass-shoot player archetype that Quin Snyder prefers.
He’s owed $27 million total over the next two years on his contract — $13.5 million annually — with a team option just north of $13 million in 2028-29. This might be a good example of dangling an overpaid player by leaving him unprotected and hoping a new team with salary space to fill takes a flier on him.
The Buddy Hield tier:
Buddy Hield just Wednesday checked into the game with a huge smile on his face for only his second appearance in a Hawks jersey. In his short time in Atlanta, he’s become a vibes commander veteran in the locker room.
It does seem that his best on-court days are behind him, however, having fallen out of favor in Golden State before this stop. He has a partial guarantee worth $3 million for next season, so that amount (or a portion guaranteed up to his roughly $10.1 million salary next season) could be useful in a future trade.
Young, promising, but still developing talent:
The Hawks used the 23rd overall pick last draft on Asa Newell, who has flashed potential as a stretch big man who can rebound and finish near the rim. The 20-year-old Georgia native has a bright future ahead of him, even as most of his playing time of late comes by way of the College Park Skyhawks.
Mouhamed Gueye is already a freakishly good defender seeing fairly regular minutes as the team’s fourth big man after Johnson, Okongwu, and Landale. He has his struggles scoring the ball, but with a team option worth around $2.4 million for next year in an extension-eligible season, that value should give the Hawks pause about considering leaving him unprotected.
Two-way players with three or fewer service years and recent two-way converts:
I’ll be quick here.
The four players that fit this tier — Keaton Wallace, Christian Koloko, RayJ Dennis, and Keshon Gilbert — all have varying levels of real NBA promise, but it’s unlikely that any of them become regular rotation players in Atlanta. All are signed to a minimum level contract or two-way deal but are seeing no playing time with the senior franchise, and so the Hawks shouldn’t go out of their way to protect them in an expansion draft.
Who rounds out the eight protected players group?
Here it is. The moment of truth.
The final verdict of who gets protected. I have them listed here after taking account of age, projection, and current value around the league in order of easiest call to hardest call:
- Jalen Johnson
- Dyson Daniels
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
- Onyeka Okongwu
- Jonathan Kuminga
- Asa Newell
- Zaccharie Risacher
- Mouhamed Gueye
For the record, my hardest cut would be Buddy Hield with his mostly unguaranteed deal (optionality!) followed by Corey Kispert.
Which eight players would you protect if the expansion draft were held this summer? Please let me know in the comments below.
