This team is a study in contradictions. Two 10-game winning streaks (out of the three total 10+ game winning streaks in MLB this year) and a 10-game losing streak. The team has a leaky bullpen and yet it’s something like a quarter of their games that have been won in their last team at-bat. There are the 10 walk-offs but also, this is the third extra-inning win on the road (and eighth overall). I know there was at least one bottom of the eighth winning run scored at home. That’s 14 of 58 wins there.
There was a game in LA that they beat the Dodgers 6-4 with two runs in the ninth. So 15 of 58 wins involved the Cubs scoring in their last time at the plate to win.
It’s totally crazy. The wins against bad starters. The wins against bad bullpens. Those are likely going away when the postseason comes. Well-rested elite starters and the top end of the bullpen throws almost all of the relief innings come postseason. You don’t win as much on depth anymore as top end talent. That’s an easy narrative for this team.
But Jared Jones is the type of guy who starts a playoff game. And he pitched like he belongs there. Yohan Ramirez came in with a 6-2 record, a 3.21 ERA and a whisker shy of 10 strikeouts per nine innings of work. Ramirez is on a one-year deal. If and when the Pirates fall out of contention, teams are going to be calling about Ramirez with the intention of having him work the sixth or seventh inning for their playoff teams.
This isn’t a win that readily falls into the Cub narrative. The Cubs had just seven prior wins with three or fewer runs. In fact, this game does interact with the first paragraph. The Cubs have had three 3-2 walk-off wins this year. Add to that now a road, extra-inning 3-2 win. There’s also a 2-1 walk-off. So five of their eight wins now with 3 or fewer runs are last at-bat winners. The other three are all shutouts. There are no 3-0 or 3-1 wins yet this year.
Let’s not forget the perspective check. Today I start with: That’s 1-0 on this 17-game gauntlet. There are four teams with more wins than the Cubs. There is one team with as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs are currently holding a 2.5 game lead for the first Wild Card spot. The Cubs are on a pace to win 91 games. Fangraphs had them with a record of 7-9-1 for this 17 game stretch at the start of the day. This was not one of the seven, so currently at +1. I’d honestly take the eight if it was offered. I hope I’m selling them short.
A giant hat tip to Matthew Boyd and a smaller hat tip to the Cub defense. They were against the ropes several times, but they never broke. Boyd’s seven innings of one-run ball made this possible. Credit where credit is due, Caleb Thielbar and Gavin Hollowell retired all six batters they faced to close this out, with Hollowell facing the top of the Pirate order. Hollowell is the 11th different Cub with a save. I asked near the end of the first half if more Cubs would have at least one save or more walk-offs. Saves are more likely, but at some point, even Oprah runs out of new people to give a save to.
Eleven different people with saves is already remarkable. I was surprised to learn that just last year the Diamondbacks had 17 different players combine for 42 saves, with 10 being the high. The Cubs have 21 saves among 11 players. Jacob Webb leads with five. Phil Maton and Ethan Roberts, both on the IL, have the most relief innings without registering a save. Tyler Ferguson does not have one yet. Nor did Drew Pomeranz before he was DFA. Aaron Civale was two outs away from one. Maybe a presently rehabbing starter or a deadline acquisition could push the number higher. Curious, if nothing else.
It all adds up to a season not quite like any other. In basketball, this was the kind of team that lived in purgatory. It’s not good enough to win a championship. Nor does it have a chance to win the draft lottery. In baseball, there is little benefit to tanking. Even where there are a few benefits that flow from a bad record, most of them take a long, long time to come to fruition. Almost all of the draft picks and international free agents take years to cultivate. So might as well make the most of it. Maximize your team at the deadline and hope to win two series rather than one in October. One feels like the ceiling. Break the ceiling and hope to catch lightning in a bottle after that.
Three Positives and Pete:
- Matthew Boyd threw seven innings of one run ball.
- Ian Happ, one hit, one very big run, one even bigger outfield assist.
- Gavin Hollowell. Didn’t worry about the ghost runner, got three balls in play and picked up a save.
- Pete had a homer for the first Cub run, doubled, and had a huge intentional walk. I think the old cliche about an unintentional walk after an intentional walk probably disappeared with the automatic walk, but Ramirez walked Seiya Suzuki after walking PCA to load the bases. That pair of walks won this game for the Cubs. It was probably the right (unconventional) strategy there.
Game 103, July 24: Cubs 3, Pirates 2 (58-45)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.300). 7 IP, 29 BF, 7 H, 3 BB, R, 4 K
- Hero: Gavin Hollowell (.209). IP, 3 BF (Sv 1)
- Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.196). 1-4, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.156). 0-5
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.130). 0-3
- Kid: Pedro Ramirez (-.126). 1-4, R
WPA Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson’s RBI single in the 10th inning with Ian Happ’s very close foot-first slide (that I very much thought was going to be overturned). (.304)
Pirates Play of the Game: Yohan Ramirez’ strikeout of Nico Hoerner for the first out of the 10th. (.118)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 102 Winner: Seiya Suzuki received 20 (of 49) votes. Ian Happ received 18.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Michael Busch/Ben Brown +13.5
- Alex Bregman +13
- Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
- Nico Hoerner -13
- Caleb Thielbar -14
- Dansby Swanson -15
Up Next: Game two of the 17-game stretch and of the weekend series in Pittsburgh. Shōta Imanaga (6-8, 3.91) starts for the Cubs. He’s 2-2 over his last seven with a 2.31 ERA (39 IP) and is coming off of a win. He faces Pirates ace Paul Skenes (9-8, 3.43). Skenes is just 3-3 with a 4.58 (39.1) over his last seven. So they are catching him at a good time. Sort of. The three wins? His last three starts (5 ER over 18.1). He’s 2-3 with a 2.77 ERA over eight career starts against the Cubs. He hasn’t been the winning pitcher against them since 2024 and has been the loser three of four starts.
That’s as much optimism as I can muster against one of the best pitchers on the planet. Keep it close and hope to steal it.
