Missouri State’s coach is the same guy that was coaching them way back in 2008. That season, Counzo Martin led the Bears to a 11-20 record in the Missouri Valley Conference. Counzo Martin is still leading the Bears, but it has been a long trip for both to get here. Missouri St hasn’t made the tournament since. In fact, they haven’t been there this millenia. They also now play in Conference USA, which used to be a serious conference but now is a low-major that Liberty won last year. Counzo Martin has been to the tournament at Tennessee,
Cal, and Missouri proper. He then took three years away from coaching before returning to the school that gave him his start as a college head coach. Both the school and coach have taken quite the route to get here.
Missouri St reads as 4-4 this season, but that’s a little deceiving. They have beaten UT Rio Grande Valley and then three non-D1 opponents: Northeastern State, a D2, Missouri Southern, another D2, and Northwestern Oklahoma, you guessed it, a D2. Their four losses have all been double digit except for a close one against Arkansas St.
Team Fingerprint
In those five games against D1 competition the Bears have not exactly set the world ablaze on offense. They’re 254th in the nation, largely because they can’t shoot three pointers at all and don’t rebound any of their misses. They do get blocked a ton, but it doing so they get fouled enough that their field goal attempt to free throw attempt rate is 12th in the nation. Beyond that, their offense is, as Peyton Manning would say, offensive.
But on defense, oh on defense they really turn things around. There, they are 245th in the nation, which technically makes it their strength. They don’t defend the arc or inside the arc well. They are truly horrendous on the defensive glass. They do tend to make defensive possessions take a long time, but that sort of just delays the inevitable.
These guys aren’t very good, is what I’m trying to say.
Players
Starters
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Trey Williams, Jr. | Point Guard | All Wright |
| Freshman | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’3″”, 180″ | Measurements | “6’3″”, 190″ |
| 9.5/2/2.6 | Game line | 10.8/2.1/2.4 |
| 36.8/33.3/75 | Shooting line | 45.7/47.6/87.5 |
| Against D1 opponents, this guy’s EFG% is an alarming 38.1%, which is awful. He doesn’t shoot much, but you can make an argument he should barely be shooting at all. He’s not much of a distributor, but he also does okay in ball security and is a pesky defender. The fact that he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat really hurts his efficiency. | ||
| Zaxton King | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| “6’3″”, 185″ | Measurements | “6’5″”, 200″ |
| 11.1/3.4/0.9 | Game line | 6.8/3.2/4.3 |
| 47.8/28.1/100 | Shooting line | 30.8/24.2/71.4 |
| Williams, Jr. is probably the worst shooter on Mo State’s roster, and King is statistically the best. A volume guy from deep last year, he’s shooting way more from inside the arc this year and is connecting on 69% of those efforts. He doesn’t really board, defend, or distribute, but he stays on the court pretty much the whole game and is the Bears’ most efficient scorer. | ||
| Kobi Williams | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| “6’4″”, 195″ | Measurements | “6’8″”, 235″ |
| 13/2.3/2.5 | Game line | 17.3/5.6/2.7 |
| 36.7/30.2/83.3 | Shooting line | 48.6/37.5/63.6 |
| He gets to the line well and is pretty good at converting when he does. Other than that, he’s a bit of a volume scorer. He’s not very efficient from anywhere on the floor, but he’s not going to kill you with turnovers. He can be a little foul prone on the defensive end and is functionally absent on the glass. | ||
| Keith Palek III | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
| Senior | Class | Senior |
| “6’9″”, 220″ | Measurements | “6’9″”, 227″ |
| 16.8/6.8/3.5 | Game line | 8.5/7/3.6 |
| 43.6/31.7/68.8 | Shooting line | 47.4/22.2/87.5 |
| A D2 transfer out of Cal University of Pennsylvania, Palek has been the team’s best player so far this year. He crushes the defensive glass and is a surprisingly proficient thief for a big man, though he can be prone to foul trouble. His shooting numbers haven’t been great, but he draws a ton of fouls and is strong enough from the line to make it worthwhile. | ||
| Cameron Boone | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
| Junior | Class | Sophomore |
| “6’10″”, 240″ | Measurements | “6’10″”, 241″ |
| 1.6/1.6/0.4 | Game line | 12.5/3.9/1.2 |
| 50/0/50 | Shooting line | 41.4/42.4/64.3 |
| Boone is a JuCo transfer who averaged 4 and 4 in two seasons at that level. It almost goes without saying that he isn’t the usual starter here, but injuries have forced Coach Martin to shuffle some things around. He has more fouls (9) than points (6), rebounds (4), or assists (2) in D1 play this year. |
Reserves
The Bears are probably going to be without Michael Osei-Bonsu, a man with the listed height of Quentin Goodin (6’4″) and listed weight of Ron Rollerson (280). This mountain of a man averages 13.7/7.1/2.0 per game on a grand total of 1 three point attempt in his career. He’s efficient around the rim, absolutely awful from the line, and extremely prone to foul trouble. He’s listed as out with an injury, but I hope he plays, because you just don’t see fellas with those dimensions on the court too often (insert your own Audi Crooks reference here).
In his stead, sophomore Darrion Sutton has gotten solid minutes. He’s a 6’9″, 205- pound stretch four averaging 8.4/6/1.5 on 56/44.4/63.6 shooting this year. He’s a good defender and strong on the glass at both ends. He’s also second on the team in assist rate at 19.8%.
After that, things get grim. Transfer big man Amar Kuljuhovic put up good numbers in the first two games and hasn’t appeared since. Freshman wing Melakih Cunningham made his career debut last time out against Tulsa, posting 6/4/2 on a shooting line of 2-6/1-3/1-2. Senior guard Logan Epes has been a depth option his entire career and gotten minutes here and there this season; he’s averaging 1.6/2.0/0.6 on 30.8% shooting and probably wouldn’t even merit a mention if the bench situation were less dire. Sophomore wing Tyrique Brooks might also grab some minutes, but he hasn’t made much of a statistical impression to speak of.
Three questions
-Where will Missouri State find their minutes? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Jared Ridder isn’t walking through that door. Missouri State is 343rd in the nation in bench minutes, and they have four active players averaging over 4 fouls per 40 and three averaging over 7. Xavier has been far from elite at getting to the line this year, but you’d figure a high-major playing a buy game at home will have the advantage both physically and in terms of referee favor. If you walked on for Missouri State, you might want to have your folks tuning into this one.
-Is Xavier’s offense changing? The Muskies were buns from inside the arc and basically Steph Curry in team form from deep in their first eight games, but over the last two they’re shooting 52-81 (64.2%) on twos and just 16-60 (26.7%) on threes. Has Tre Carroll finally convinced his teammates that layups are cool, or were those numbers just a function of matchups and – in the case of the Shootout – one man’s spite? I love watching it rain threes, but a slightly more balanced offensive attack would serve Xavier well going forward.
-Can Xavier stay sharp? The Muskies are playing their best ball of the young season right now, but they also haven’t seen a high-major opponent since West Virginia in Charleston. By the time they host Creighton to open Big East play, they’ll have spent three and a half weeks gorging on cupcakes at home. A high level of execution in a game that should effectively be one would portend well for the upcoming Big East slate.
Three keys
-Keep Malik Messina-Moore going. Has he looked like the guy who posted 33 points across the first two games? No. Has he been a vital part of the offense? Yes. Messina-Moore has 18 assists to just 1 turnover in the last three game, coming out to an 18:1 A:TO. He’s a casual 0-7 from deep in that time, but he’s 7-10 from inside the arc and a career 38% shooter beyond it. It doesn’t take too much squinting to see a Malcolm Bernard or Remy Abell type Swiss Army knife player in MMM.
-Play through the bigs. Kobi Williams has to guard someone, which means X will have a dude with 6 inches and/or 40 pounds of advantage on his defender. I’m sure Palek III and Boone are good dudes, but they’re also foul-prone defenders who can be taken out of the game if they’re attacked consistently. Xavier should be able to turn this game into either a layup line or a parade to the free throw stripe.
-Stay out of foul trouble. The one place Missouri State is any good is getting to the line, and they happen to be elite in that regard. Xavier wants to run up possessions, abstain from giving away free points, and keep a solid rhythm heading into Big East play. God forbid they let this one stay close and give Missouri State the same kind of hope we saw Marist and Le Moyne enjoy. I think the only way they can do that is if they’re consistently drawing fouls; avoid that, and this should be smooth sailing.
