That’s a wrap on the regular season. The NFL Playoffs are set, a bunch of Wild Card teams are better than two division winners, and Aaron Rodgers has bamboozled Baltimore once again.
I knew from a few weeks
back the Seattle Seahawks had done something impressive in terms of beating current playoff-caliber teams. That curiosity turned into the following. A three-piece window into all 14 teams. Total record, point differential, and how many wins each team secured against one of their 2025 postseason brethren. This was fun and informative, and most importantly I now know who will be in the Super Bowl.
AFC
- Denver Broncos | 14-3 overall, 90 point differential, 4 wins over playoff teams
- New England Patriots | 14-3 overall, 170 point differential, 2 wins over playoff teams
- Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 overall, 138 point differential, 5 wins over playoff teams
- Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-7 overall, 10 point differential, exactly 1 win over a playoff team; it was the Patriots
- Houston Texans | 12-5 overall, 109 point differential, 4 wins over playoff teams
- Buffalo Bills | 12-5 overall, 116 point differential, 3 wins over playoff teams
- Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 overall, 28 point differential, 3 wins over playoff teams
Two nuggets from the AFC. First, the Steelers are hilarious, man. Congratulations on possibly not getting Mike Tomlin fired, but they have not been the better team than almost anyone all season.
Second, those Jacksonville Jaguars really put it together. There’s an artificial 34-point bump from beating the meaningless Tennessee Titans in the final game of the season. Cut that in half against a real team: they’re still the second-best point differential in the conference. And they did beat a bunch of real teams, unlike the Patriots.
Good at defense, and with a strong-armed, long-haired quarterback you say?
We now turn our attention to our own conference.
NFC
- Seattle Seahawks | 14-3 overall, 191 point differential, 6 wins over playoff teams
- Chicago Bears | 11-6 overall, 26 point differential, 3 wins over playoff teams
- Philadelphia Eagles | 11-6 overall, 54 point differential, 3 wins over playoff teams
- Carolina Panthers | 8-9 overall, -69 point differential(!!!), 2 wins over playoff teams
- Los Angeles Rams | 12-5 overall, 172 point differential, 4 wins over playoff teams
- San Francisco 49ers | 12-5 overall, 66 point differential, 4 wins over playoff teams
- Green Bay Packers | 9-7-1 overall, 31 point differential, 2 wins over playoff teams
Two nuggets again. The Panthers are the worst playoff team in a decade. Maybe even a decade and a half, as the artificially intelligent Google search will say they’re the worst team since someone called the 2010 Seattle Seahawks.
Second, what the Seahawks did is special. They not only blew teams out, but they played a bunch of good ones along the way. Of their three losses, one was to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that was 4-1 and looking like a playoff lock. The other two were to the second and third-best records in the NFC.
So while this has nothing to do with matchup strength, turnover margin, or EPA per dropback, I found it a pretty decent overview of what the ‘25 journey has been like for these teams.
Therefore, with all the accolades and home field beside, I’m riding with Seattle to the Super Bowl. On the other side, I’d been saying Denver for a while, but I’m now submitting Jacksonville as the hottest team in the AFC. They also happened to end the season with an 8-game win streak, one better than the Hawks. 138 points better than a schedule of 5 playoff teams just feels far meatier than being 170 points better than a schedule of 4th place finishers and 2 playoff teams. Sorry Patriot fans. I believe, but I believe in the Jags more.
So using nothing but my new, nerd-free analysis, it’s Seahawks vs. Jaguars in a month.
