We’ve already had one top-25 upset this week, with #20 Louisville falling to Clemson on Friday night. The ACC is currently in absolute chaos, as each of Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU, Pittsburgh and Duke
all have only one loss at the top of the conference. Yes, 5-4 Duke is 4-1 in the ACC. There’s a slim chance that the ACC is left out of the playoff entirely in 2025.
Beyond just the ACC, though, there should be some good games on the college football slate this week. Below are the top-25 matchups on Saturday.
#9 Notre Dame @ #22 Pittsburgh (11 am CT, ABC)
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Notre Dame is the two-loss team with the best chance of making the college football playoff with a 57.5 percent chance. Their two losses to start the season were against the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies, both top-15 teams, and the combined margin was just 4 points in those games. Since then, the Fighting Irish have won every other game they’ve played this year by at least 10 points.
Obviously, a loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers would be brutal for the Irish’s playoff odds, as this is the last hurdle for Notre Dame to clear. They end the season against Syracuse and Stanford, one of the worst programs in the Power 4 in 2025, after this matchup.
But the Panthers have stakes in this game, too, as they sit at 7-2 and 5-1 in conference play. With the Louisville Cardinals on Friday, their chances of getting to go to Charlotte for the ACC Championship will shoot through the roof if they can beat Notre Dame in this one.
#11 Oklahoma @ #4 Alabama (2:30 pm CT, ABC)
The Oklahoma Sooners are fighting for their playoff lives. Currently, even though they’re 7-2, they only have a 23.6 percent chance of making the playoff, which ranks 17th in the FBS this year. Some of that is probably factoring in a likely loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide this week, plus the fact that Oklahoma ends the season against the Missouri Tigers, who have been in and out of the top-25 this year, and the LSU Tigers.
Speaking of Alabama, they’ve basically punched in their card for the postseason dance. They have a 95.7 percent chance of making the playoff, third best behind just Ohio State and Indiana. ESPN gives them a better than 50 percent chance of winning the SEC, more than double the credit that they’re giving Texas A&M, which is currently undefeated at 9-0.
Alabama gets the FCS’s Eastern Illinois next week, a 3-7 team, before playing Auburn, which has already fired its head coach and is 1-6 in SEC play, to end the regular season. If the Tide wins out, that probably means that we’re going to see an A&M-Bama matchup in Atlanta for the SEC title.
#21 Iowa @ #17 USC (2:30 pm CT, Big Ten Network)
Both of these teams are on the brink of elimination going into this game. The Iowa Hawkeyes dropped two losses to the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks, who are currently ranked in the top eight, but the loss that is really killing them right now is their in-state loss to Iowa State, a program that is just 6-4 this season.
USC only has two losses this year, but they get to play back-to-back ranked games against Iowa and Oregon before they play their rival, UCLA. The Trojans probably can’t add another loss to their resume and feel safe about their playoff chances.
FPI currently has Iowa with a 4.1 percent chance to make the playoff and USC with a 16.6 percent chance. Both are just fighting for survival.
#10 Texas @ #5 Georgia (6:30 pm CT, ABC)
Some people believe the Texas Longhorns have turned a leaf since losing to Ohio State 14-7 in the season-opener and 29-21 to the Florida Gators in their SEC opener this season. A lot of that is off the back of beating Oklahoma, currently the 11th-ranked college program, 23-6 in the Red River Rivalry. It’s worth remembering that Sooners quarterback John Mateer had only recently come back from a hand surgery in the loss.
Since Texas’ signature win over Oklahoma, they’ve won by a touchdown or less against unranked Kentucky, unranked Mississippi State and 14th-ranked Vanderbilt. If you’re the Longhorns, it’s time to put up or shut up.
For Texas to avoid its third loss of the season, it’ll have to not only make it through Georgia but also undefeated Texas A&M, its final matchup of the regular season.
Despite the likelihood of Texas going at least 9-3 in the regular season, FPI still gives the Longhorns a 49.2 percent chance of making the playoff. For perspective, the next-best team that FPI expects at least three losses from, from a playoff odds perspective, is Oklahoma at 23.6 percent.
Meanwhile, Georgia is 8-1, but on the outside looking in for the SEC race, considering that both Alabama (who beat the Bulldogs head-to-head) and A&M are undefeated in conference. If Georgia can win this and Texas can beat A&M to end the year, though, they’ll have a good chance of making it to Atlanta.
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Feel free to talk about college football or the NFL draft in the comment section on Saturday.
