We’re back! It’s that time of year! While we did have some Week 0 action in the Mountain West last weekend, Week 1 of the 2025 season is officially around the corner! That means it’s best bet time!
I know, I know. You’re back to remind me how much the ‘books love me! I’m sorry! Last year for our over-under win totals, we went 0-2-1, though we did nail the Boise State-CFP bet, which was +400. There’s got to be a silver lining somewhere, right?!
Let’s jump right into this year’s slate! Tail me at your
own cost (literally)! Let’s take a look at FanDuel odds on a few key bets.
San Jose State o7.5 wins (+100):
I am not sure how much of a “surprise” this is at this point, but San Jose State is my pick to meet Boise State in the Mountain West Title game. I told you to wager against them last year and I was wrong. Hand up. They had one of the most explosive offenses in the Mountain West, and I think they got better. Walker Get, who threw for 2,504 yards and 13 touchdowns, is back behind center. They lost both Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart at wideout, but Sac State transfer Danny Scudero isn’t a bad replacement. Gaga Faga and Jordan Pollard are back to man the front seven, too. San Jose State also plays one of the easiest schedules in the country and avoids both Boise State and UNLV, so I think they have a very reasonable path to eight wins, barring injury.
Nevada o3.5 wins (-140):
You see that over there?! My bias is showing! Objectively speaking, the Wolf Pack have been one of the nation’s worst teams each of the last three seasons, if you’re solely judging based on W-L; 7-30 is not great, Bob! Nevada went 3-10 last year to kick off the Jeff Choate era. But they played a ridiculously hard schedule, had the fifth-most penalties in the FBS, the worst 3rd down defense with a disastrous special teams unit … and still found a way to play in eight (8!) one-possession games, going just 2-6. Hey, (positive) regression! Yeah, you over there! Even though I have genuine questions behind center — Chubba Purdy is not as good as Brendon Lewis, and has dealt with myriad injuries — I am buying into them securing at least one more win. You hear that, Penn State?!
Hawai’i o6.5 wins (-128):
Is this cheating, since they already played a Week 0 game? This feels like cheating. But as long as FanDuel has it up, then I’m rolling with it! Hawai’i got off to a 1-0 start with a 23-20 win over Stanford! Quarterback Micah Alejado was excellent in his lone start last season and picked up right where he left off, going 27-of-39 for 210 yards and two touchdowns (no turnovers). He did get injured, but is expected to play Week 1 against Arizona. Hawai’i has a very manageable non-conference schedule and I have faith they can finish above .500 in MW play to get to 7-5, at the bare minimum.
Boise State’s O/U Win Total (10.5): Over +154, Under -192
Boise State’s Championship Odds: -170
Boise State To Make College Football Playoffs: +194
Fresh off their College Football Playoff appearance, the Broncos are the favorite to win the Mountain West Championship Game and make the CFP once again. FanDuel thinks they are a good bet to reach 10 or 11 wins during the 2025 regular season. 10 wins seems likely, with the loss to Notre Dame and maybe a slip-up somewhere along the line. On the other hand, Boise State has yet to lose to a MW foe during the Spencer Danielson era. It would be a surprise if they didn’t win the conference championship once again. If they take care of those things, they should reach the CFP again, but it depends on how much one believes in Tulane.
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All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
