In this series, every win against the Dodgers adds to my happiness. Despite my optimism, great joy would follow splitting this four-game series. Looking at the pitching matchups, the Diamondbacks have better winning chances in three of the four games. My prediction is the series is a split. In any case, don’t underestimate the underdog Diamondbacks.
Let’s compare the teams, ignoring that the Dodgers have an advantage in depth of players.
Offense. This season through 29 May, the Dodgers had more runs
scored per game (5.30 vs 4.66).
Runners Left On Base. In games through 29 May, the Diamondbacks had the third lowest runners left on base of 6.38 per game. The Dodgers were average with 6.89 runners left on base per game.
Defense. In games through 29 May, the Dodgers defense was better than the Diamondbacks defense. (19 vs 11 outs above average (OAA), and 34 vs 11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).
Bullpens. In May, the Dodgers bullpen had an amazing streak of scoreless innings per this SB Nation article. Their bullpen allowed zero runs in 11 games played from 13-24 May (36.0 innings pitched). The streak stopped abruptly. In the following four games, their bullpen allowed 7 earned runs in 11 innings pitched.
For the entire season, the Diamondbacks had more shutdown performances by the bullpen (58 vs 39). Very slight edge to the Diamondbacks.
Starting Pitcher Matchups. In May, the Diamondbacks had 17 quality starts (so far). This is the key that is allowing the Diamondbacks offense to drive the Diamondbacks towards the playoffs. For this series, three of the four matchups are advantage Diamondbacks.
Dodger Player to Watch
Shohei Ohtani, future Hall of Famer. Although he won a silver sligger award four times, this season he may fall short of winning (but with batting well above average). His pitching is a career best. He is in contention for his first Cy Young award. In this series, Diamondbacks fans at Chase will likely see him pitch!
“Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani tossed six hitless innings on Wednesday against the Rockies. He also chipped in a leadoff home run for good measure. Ohtani lowered his ERA to 0.82. As ESPN points out, it’s the ninth-lowest ERA heading into June among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings since 1913….” — Charlie Wright, MLBTR
Diamondbacks Player to Watch
On 26 May, Lovullo said yes to a question about whether Pavin Smith would likely return in the Dodgers series. I’m confident that when he rejoins the team, he will show consistent excellent performance.
Pitching Matchups.
Monday, 6:40 PM MST, Korean Heritage Celebration. Eduardo Rodriguez will face Emmet Sheehan. In March/April, Rodriguez had the better ERA (3.03 vs 4.78 ERA). In May, Rodriguez compared even better (1.60 vs 4.62 ERA). In May, Sheehan improved his ratio of strikeouts to walks from 3.11 to 6,20, but his ERA was little changed.
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM MST, Lou Gehrig Day. Michael Soroka will face Eric Lauer. In March/April, Soroka had the better ERA (4.70 vs 6.00 ERA). In May, Soroka compared even better (1.78 vs 5.87 ERA).
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Wednesday, 6:40 PM MST, Japanese Heritage Celebration. Zac Gallen will face Shohei Ohtani. The contrast between these two pitchers is stark. While Gallen is currently the fourth or fifth best pitcher in the Diamondbacks rotation, Ohtani is competing for the Cy Young award. Nevertheless, this season Gallen had two quality starts. This game could be a third quality start, and the Diamondbacks would have winning chances.
This matchup is advantage Dodgers.
Thursday, 6:40 PM MST, Mexican Heritage Night. Ryne Nelson will face Justin Wobleski. In March/April, Wobleski had the better ERA (1.50 vs 7.71 ERA). In May (prior to his start on 30 May), Nelson turned it around, showing he is now the better pitcher (2.36 vs 4.13 ERA). My gut is telling me that Nelson is the better pitcher.
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
