Two major subtexts have dominated the Portland Trail Blazers’ 2025-26 season. The rise of Deni Avdija to an All-Star, maybe All-League, level has been the primary story. The spate of injuries the Blazers have suffered
has followed close on its heels.
The last injury report for Portland’s game against Sacramento on Sunday looked like this:
Jrue Holiday, Jerami Grant, Robert Williams III, Scoot Henderson, Damian Lillard, Kris Murray, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley
You could practically build a whole new team out of that portion of the roster, with Holiday, Lillard, and Henderson forming a mean three-guard combo, Jerami Grant and Robert Williams darting all over the place in the big spots. You even have reserve wings and yet another point guard in the offing!
The Blazers need some of these players back. That’s clear. This isn’t the team that was envisioned at the start of the season. Holding a 22-22 record with many of the above players in street clothes is quite the feat.
Many Blazers fans—in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag and on site—are salivating at the prospect of a fully-armed and operational version of their squad. If they win half their games with an injured roster, how many can they take when everyone is healthy?
There’s wisdom to this. Portland needs to be deeper. The Blazers need more consistency and more shooting. Their injured players embody those qualities.
We need to be careful, however. A return to health isn’t the only factor that matters in the growth cycle of an NBA franchise. In particular, those who say, “All we have to do is wait this out…” may be in for a rude awakening.
First, one has to ask the obvious question: WILL it get better? Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard are in their mid-30’s, nearing the end of their careers. They have miles left, but marathons are probably behind them. Lillard, in particular, is coming off of a serious injury. Forecasting either of them playing starter’s minutes for an entire season might be optimistic. Then there’s Williams, who can’t seem to stay on the floor under any circumstances. Thybulle has been injured for the last year as well. Given their contract status and health history, either or both might be gone after the season.
All of these players will return at different stages. Will all of them ever be healthy, in game shape, and productive at the same time? That’s an unknown at this point.
Then we have to ask what the team looks like with these players in uniform. A deeper roster is better than shallow, but adding more players—even good ones—doesn’t automatically lead to more success over the long haul.
The Golden State Warriors just lost Jimmy Butler for the season. It’s a huge blow to their aspirations. Much empathy towards them. But there was another story brewing in Golden State already. They acquired Butler at last year’s trade deadline. After that, when all three of their main players were healthy, they won about 75% of their games. That boded well for this season. If you do that well for 40% of the year, surely that’s indicative of future performance, right?
Except the Warriors haven’t won 75% of their games this year. More like 57%. That’s not bad at all, but it’s only been good for 8th in the Western Conference, not the Top 4 positioning they were hoping for. Before Butler’s injury last night, they were rumored to be looking for another major addition to boost their chances.
In the Warriors we have a veteran team, former championship winners, who have come claim to being models of consistency. Even for them, a half-season does not eternal success make. Play vacillates. Teams go up and down. Things can look great for a while, then fall.
That’s not to suggest that the Blazers would be better off without their injured players. Far from it! But the play of the Blazers in the first half of this season does not automatically equate to that same level of play in the second half, or next year. This is particularly true of a young team that hasn’t experienced the same reps, or success, as a team like the Warriors.
That may seem like an obvious statement, but it comes into play when looking at the trade deadline, the draft, and future moves this summer and beyond. The Blazers can’t just assume that they’re going to welcome back a player or two and automatically build on whatever they’ve shown so far. They have to keep showing, keep growing. That probably means doing what the Warriors did, continuing to add to the roster every chance they get regardless of who’s on the injury list or not. Staying the same as they were and adding back injured players isn’t likely to be enough. They need to get better, then add targeted players back from injury in the right spots with the right roles.
That latter part is tricky. One of the realities of Portland’s early season is that they’ve lost almost all their point guards. Avdija, earlier mentioned as the story of the year, has stepped into that gap and flourished. What happens when one of those point guards comes back, let alone all of them?
Of the injured players, Holiday and Grant are least likely to tip the boat. Both are veterans, multifaceted, and understand their roles. There’s no real downside to having either in the lineup alongside Avdija. It’s just more defense and more ball-sharing. Seldom will either get in Deni’s way.
But when we start talking about Scoot Henderson or the Damian Lillard people want to see, that’s a different story. These are major additions, Henderson in touches, Lillard in touches and style. I don’t believe either would impede Avdija directly, but that doesn’t mean that fit and flourishing would be automatic for either guard. Likely both would come off the bench at first. Whether they’d ever grow (or regrow) into their full potential in that role is up to debate.
Good news: the Blazers do have minutes and shots to distribute. One could argue that Lillard, Henderson, Holiday, and Grant could occupy space that Sidy Cissoko and Caleb Love have been holding down, allowing the younger players to grow in a more natural progression instead of being thrust into the fire. There’s probably a late-game Toumani Camara possession or two that could go into other people’s hands as well. But do you replace the speed of the younger players or Camara’s ubiquitous defense with returning injury-list guys? Those questions are harder to answer.
Those unknowns are the rocks on which the “1. Get Healthy 2. ???? 3. Profit!” plan founders. It’ll be a good and interesting problem to have, but it’s still a problem to solve. This isn’t Golden State, where they have a Jimmy-Butler-shaped hole waiting for Jimmy Butler to return. This is a roster that, practically speaking, has never played together, that’s still finding its way, and that desperately needs some things but doesn’t quite know what yet.
This is not to put a damper on anybody’s hopes. It’s possible that the organization sails on free and easy from here, adding back injured players and prospering at each step. But like we said above, the strait through which they need to sail in order to make that happen is narrower than it looks. My gut tells me, honestly, that being active at the trade deadline and/or in the coming summer will be as viable of a strategy as pinning hopes on Holiday, Lillard, and the re-integration of Henderson. One or two of those players—or Grant or somebody else off the bench—might be the answer. All of them, though? That’s unlikely.
I’m guessing the Blazers need to get healthier, more proven, and more in their prime players in order to bolster Avdija and take a real step forward. Getting healthy is likely to make them a better version of what they are now: a team still trailing the Warriors, looking to leapfrog them into the lower echelons of the playoffs bracket. If they want to be more, they need to do more. Marginal gains, likely coupled with marginal losses, isn’t going to do it.
For those reasons, I’m not going to argue if the Blazers move pieces off of this roster before they’re even tried fully, be that in February or June. This experiment is still evolving. The real way forward is probably something we haven’t envisioned yet, not someone waiting in the wings.
