MLB’s trade deadline will arrive later today, and the Orioles are expected to be active. The team enters the day at 54-58, just 2.5 games back of the final AL wild card spot. But, the roster has flaws. President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias told the media just a few days ago that the team’s current situation is “complicated,” and that he will look to make moves on a case-by-case basis, not necessarily looking to go all-in on 2026 or punt everything to the future.
Dean Kremer was the first domino
to fall. The veteran right-hander was under team control for 2027, but given how much he had struggled this season it was also possible that he could have been non-tendered in the offseason anyway. Instead, Elias decided to move him to Minnesota and get something for him. That is the type of trade that most fans will be fine with. What comes next is where things will get interesting.
Reporting emerged over the weekend from the New York Post’s Joel Sherman that indicated the Orioles were “at least listening on Adley Rutschman.”
The crux of the report is thus: A lot of good teams are in desperate need for catching help. Rutschman is considered one of the game’s best all-around catchers. And the Orioles are not convinced that their 2026 team is all that good. So, they could be overwhelmed by an offer to the point that they ship off one of their franchise cornerstones, possibly within division.
It’s a touchy subject for Orioles fans. Rutschman, as well as being a good player, is a symbol for the club’s most recent return to relevancy. Elias had torn the organization down to studs right when he arrived while also making Rutschman his very first draft pick. Once the Oregon State product arrived in the big leagues, the entire vibe around the team shifted. Dealing him away would be the end of an era. Sending him to a rival would be something worse.
That said, trading away a key player is not always the wrong choice. So let’s get into the case for trading away Adley Rutschman sometime today.
The Orioles kind of stink with Adley anyway
The team’s overall record in 2026 speaks for itself. They are below average. What about with Rutschman on the field? They are no better. The team is 32-35 with him on the field at all, and they are 30-35 when he starts.
The same was true last year. The Orioles finished 75-87. When Rutschman appeared in a game they went 38-52 overall, and 37-47 when he started. Granted, he had a poor season (90 OPS+) in 2025, but the facts are the facts.
This not a Rutschman-specific problem. The Orioles, as a whole, have been pretty bad since the all-star break in 2024. Many of their best players have seen their numbers take a downturn since then. Rutschman is perhaps the most prominent, but we have seen the same from Gunnar Henderson and others this season. But it becomes difficult to make the argument that an individual player is such a difference maker when the team’s record doesn’t change with him in or out of the lineup.
The Orioles have already made their long-term decision at catcher
While it always seemed far-fetched that Rutschman would sign a long-term deal with the Orioles, those odds got even longer last summer when fellow catcher Samuel Basallo inked his eight-year, $67 million deal that will keep him in Baltimore through the 2033 season at least.
Rutschman and Basallo are very different players. Rutschman is well-rounded, productive in just about every facet of the game. Basallo is a bat-first backstop that has seen his defense improve, but further work is needed. Basallo is also 21 years old. Rutschman will turn 29 this coming offseason. That is significant, particularly if the hope is for either one of them to play most of their innings at catcher moving forward. That doesn’t get easier as you reach age 30.
There are other holes to fill
It’s great to have two stellar catchers. When Rutschman and Basallo are healthy, the Orioles are in the enviable position of never playing an empty bat behind the plate. Many teams have enough trouble finding one catcher that can hit, let alone two.
However, it’s not as if the Orioles are running out a bunch of all-stars at the rest of their positions. Third base has been a problem all season. Right field runs hot and cold. Center field needs to be addressed. And don’t forget about the bullpen, which could use at least one more good arm, probably two.
If the Orioles can take Rutschman and turn him into solutions at a few of those other spots, they probably come out ahead as an overall team. Ensuring they do that, of course, is a different conversation.
Injuries are becoming a problem
It seems like every member of the Orioles roster is required to spend at least a few weeks on the IL per season, but Rutschman is starting to become a more frequent member of the list than others.
Rutschman is on his third IL stint of the 2026 season. He tweaked both of his obliques last year, which cost him two months in total. Then, in 2024, you had the dramatic dip in play that the Orioles swear was not injury related, but internet sleuths deduced that the catcher may have been dealing with a hand issue for half of the season.
Again, if a significant part of Rutschman’s value is tied up in his ability to be an above-average catcher, that is greatly diminished if he is on the IL for a third of the season again.
The Orioles don’t have to make a decision on Rutschman right now. He is under team control for 2027, and the Orioles will be happy to tender him a contract in the offseason to see what happens. They could always trade him then.
At the same time, pushing that decision to the offseason will change the context as well. Other catching solutions will come available, potentially lowering Rutschman’s relative value. Rutschman himself will be down to just one season of control. Again, lowering his worth. And, there is the chance that he suffers another injury. In that case, teams might not be interested until they seem him back on the field. And at that point, why sell him at all unless the Orioles themselves fall out of contention in 2027.
That doesn’t mean Rutschman has to be dealt right now. But if Elias doesn’t believe in his 2026 team, which is a defensible position to hold. Then there isn’t a ton of evidence to suggest that simply holding onto Rutschman is what will transform them back into a contender next summer.
