Well, here we are again.
Sigh.
Kansas football has, for the second year in a row, spent most of the season finding increasingly creative ways to lose games they probably should have won. Last Saturday, the Jayhawks overcame a 19-point deficit, drove 95 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:06 remaining, and still lost.
You really can’t make this stuff up.
Now KU is 3-6, needs three consecutive victories to become bowl eligible, and is heading to Morgantown to face a West Virginia team that has also
apparently decided defense is optional.
That’s actually a serious statement! Consider, Western Virginia is allowing 7.1 yards per play, has surrendered 70 plays of 20 yards or more — that’s nearly 2 per quarter! — and rank near the bottom of the country in just about every defensive category you can imagine.
Unfortunately, they also have one of the most productive offenses in college football. Who do they think they are, the 2003 Chiefs?
WVU is 5-4 this season under Rich Rodriguez, with a rushing attack featuring two players who have combined for nearly 2,000 yards on the ground. The Mountaineers are averaging 6.4 yards per play offensively, while Kansas is averaging 6.1.
I’m thinking this may have the potential to turn into a ridiculous offensive shootout. Of course, this being Kansas football, there’s also the possibility that KU gains 500 yards but can’t find the end zone because they commit four turnovers and lose 70-28.
That’s not hyperbole — my pain is real, please don’t minimize it.
PREGAME
Kansas and West Virginia have met 14 times, with the Mountaineers holding an 11-3 advantage in the series. WVU is 7-1 against the Jayhawks in Morgantown.
However, Kansas has won two of the last three meetings, including a convincing 41-10 victory in Lawrence last season. KU’s only victory in Morgantown came in 2022, when KU won a rather entertaining 55-42 overtime game.
West Virginia enters Saturday at 5-4 overall and 2-4 in Big 12 play. The Mountaineers have been involved in some absolutely ridiculous games this season, including a 45-42 victory over Cincinnati, a 45-42 loss to Iowa State, and last week’s 53-48 defeat at Texas Tech.
Rich Rodriguez is back for his second stint in Morgantown, and his offense is producing the kind of numbers that made his first tenure so successful. His defense, meanwhile, appears to have gone full Turner Gill/Vic Shealy.
Kansas enters at 3-6 overall and 1-5 in conference play. The Jayhawks have lost three of their last four games, with the lone victory coming against Baylor. All three losses came in games in which Kansas had opportunities to win in the fourth quarter.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Central on ESPNU.
West Virginia opened as approximately a three-point favorite.
FIRST DOWN
Can Kansas exploit West Virginia’s historically bad defense?
Again, I’m not exaggerating.
The Mountaineers have allowed 4,509 yards on 632 plays this season, an average of 7.1 yards per play. Opponents are averaging 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and an extraordinary 10.1 yards per pass attempt.
That’s an insane stat, by the way. For perspective, Kansas is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt, which is respectable. Against the Mountaineers, opposing quarterbacks have completed nearly 68% of their passes while throwing 23 touchdowns. West Virginia has also surrendered 70 offensive plays of at least 20 yards and 35 of at least 30 yards. According to WVU’s own athletic department, both figures lead the nation.
So yes, there should be plenty of opportunities for Kansas to move the football.
The Jayhawks have produced 54 plays of 20 yards or more themselves, ranking ninth nationally. (This actually surprised me.) Nahzae Cox has emerged as a particularly dangerous deep threat, with 446 receiving yards on just 16 receptions. That’s an absurd 27.9 yards per catch. Nik McMillan has added 497 yards and five touchdowns, while Cam Pickett has caught a team-leading 36 passes.
And then there’s Isaiah Marshall. Marshall has thrown for 1,716 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 528 rushing yards. After an absolutely miserable first half against UCF, he accounted for 335 combined yards and two rushing touchdowns, nearly bringing Kansas back from a 19-point deficit.
The question is whether the offense that showed up in the second half against UCF can make an appearance before halftime this week. Kansas gained just 61 yards on 26 plays in the first half against the Knights. After halftime, the Jayhawks gained 343 yards on 45 plays. That’s a difference between 2.3 and 7.6 yards per play against the same defense.
Lance Leipold indicated afterward that KU simplified its offensive approach and increased its tempo. Whatever the adjustments were, they worked. Against a West Virginia defense that has struggled so badly against explosive plays, Kansas shouldn’t need to assemble one 15-play drive after another to score. The opportunities should be available downfield, particularly if Marshall’s running ability forces WVU to devote additional attention to the quarterback.
Of course, identifying an opponent’s weakness and exploiting it have been two very different things for Kansas this season.
SECOND DOWN
Can Kansas stop the Mountaineers’ rushing attack?
This is where things get considerably more concerning. West Virginia has rushed for 2,372 yards and 31 touchdowns on 493 attempts already this season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. That’s particularly impressive considering how frequently the Mountaineers run the football and how little mystery there is about what Rodriguez wants to accomplish. Running back Cam Cook has accumulated 1,072 yards on 209 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns.
And he’s not even the most interesting player in the backfield. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has rushed for 924 yards and 19 touchdowns. Those 19 rushing touchdowns are a West Virginia single-season record, surpassing the previous mark held by Amos Zereoue and Pat White.
Hawkins has also thrown for 1,901 yards and 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions. His completion percentage of 57.7% isn’t particularly impressive, but his ability to produce explosive plays and threaten the defense with his legs makes him considerably more dangerous than those passing numbers suggest. Hawkins is just 76 rushing yards and 99 passing yards away from becoming the first quarterback in West Virginia history to reach 1,000 rushing yards and 2,000 passing yards in the same season.
Kansas would presumably prefer he wait another week, but let’s be honest, he’s going to have that before the second quarter starts. The Jayhawks have allowed 4.3 yards per rushing attempt this season, which isn’t terrible, but it’s considerably less impressive than their pass defense. Kansas is allowing just 6.8 yards per opposing pass attempt, and believe it or not, the secondary has generally been one of the team’s strengths.
However, West Virginia isn’t particularly interested in building its offense around throwing the football 40 times. The challenge for KU is dealing with two legitimate rushing threats on the same play. Against a traditional rushing offense, defenders can focus on stopping the running back and trust that the quarterback will hand off the football. Rodriguez’s offense doesn’t offer that luxury.
This is the dualist of dual-threats. Defensive discipline will be critical. The Jayhawks need to account for Hawkins on designed runs, avoid losing contain when passing plays break down, and tackle effectively when Cook gets opportunities between the tackles.
Trey Lathan, KU’s leading tackler with 62 stops, will be particularly important in this matchup. So will the defensive line, which produced one of its better performances of the season against UCF.
There is some potentially encouraging injury news for Kansas. Although Grady Seyfert remains out, the latest availability report does not list defensive end David Santiago, who was questionable entering last week’s game but ultimately played and was highly productive.
West Virginia, meanwhile, has offensive linemen Amare Grayson and Lamarcus Dillard listed as out. That could provide opportunities for Kansas to create penetration and disrupt the timing of the Mountaineers’ run game.
But against a quarterback like Hawkins, getting into the backfield doesn’t necessarily mean making a defensive play. Lose containment, and what looks like a tackle for loss can suddenly turn into a 25-yard gain.
And if West Virginia is consistently gaining eight yards on first down, Kansas will have a very long afternoon. (Thank you, Captain Obvious.)
THIRD DOWN
Can the Kansas defensive line make enough big plays?
One of the more encouraging developments against UCF was the performance of the Kansas defensive front. Leroy Harris III recorded three sacks and forced a fumble. Blake Herold had four tackles for loss and another forced fumble. David Santiago contributed 2.5 tackles for loss, a sack, and a fumble recovery. That’s a pretty productive afternoon.
Harris now has 6.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss on the season. Those 14 TFL rank seventh nationally, according to KU’s athletic department, and he has become one of the most disruptive defensive players in the Big 12. Kansas has recorded 17 sacks as a team, which isn’t a particularly impressive total, but the Jayhawks have shown the ability to generate pressure without relying heavily on blitzes.
Well, except for during UCF’s final drive last week but it’ll be fine, I’ll get over it, I’m fine, it’s fine, I’m over it. (I’m not over it.)
Anyway — where was I — oh yes, generating pressure without blitzing. That could be important against West Virginia. Hawkins is dangerous enough running designed plays without Kansas creating additional running lanes by sending extra defenders after him. If Harris, Santiago, and Herold can disrupt the backfield while the linebackers maintain their assignments, KU may be able to force the Mountaineers into passing situations.
And while West Virginia’s passing attack is capable of generating explosive plays, it’s also relatively dependent on those big gains. DJ Epps has 564 receiving yards on just 23 catches, averaging 24.5 yards per reception. TaRon Francis caught three passes for 169 yards against Texas Tech last week, including two receptions of more than 70 yards.
So although the Mountaineers run the football frequently, Kansas cannot simply crowd the line of scrimmage and assume the secondary will take care of itself. The good news is that Kansas has been relatively effective at limiting passing efficiency. Opponents are completing just 56.3% of their passes, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, and have thrown only 11 touchdowns against the Jayhawks.
The bad news?
West Virginia doesn’t need Hawkins to complete 25 passes to make the passing game dangerous. A few successful downfield throws, combined with an effective rushing attack, could be enough to turn this into a very difficult defensive matchup.
Kansas needs to create negative plays, get West Virginia behind the chains, and avoid surrendering the explosive gains that make Rodriguez’s offense so dangerous. That’s easier said than done, obviously. But after watching the Jayhawk defensive line against UCF, there’s at least reason to believe they can make the Mountaineers uncomfortable.
FOURTH DOWN
Can Kansas finally finish a football game?
You knew we were going to get here eventually. After all, I just told you I wasn’t over it.
Kansas is 3-10 in one-score games since the beginning of the 2024 season. The Jayhawks have repeatedly found ways to waste productive offensive performances, strong defensive efforts, and favorable fourth-quarter situations. Last week was simply the latest example.
KU scored the go-ahead touchdown against UCF with 1:06 remaining, then allowed the Knights to drive 73 yards and score their own TD with one second left. The defense forced UCF into a third-and-10 and a third-and-11 on that final possession. Both times, the Knights converted.
Against TCU, Kansas led 13-0 at halftime, outgained the Horned Frogs 451-286, and lost 22-16. Against Arizona State, KU outgained the Sun Devils 414-228 and lost 24-17.
It’s tempting to look at those numbers and conclude that Kansas has simply been unlucky. But there’s a difference between occasionally losing a game you deserve to win and repeatedly failing to capitalize on opportunities.
The Jayhawks have a minus-five turnover margin this season. They’ve converted 49 of 133 third downs, just 36.8%, despite averaging 6.1 yards per offensive play. And while Kansas has generally moved the ball effectively, there have been too many drives that produce yards without producing points. Meanwhile, West Virginia has its own collection of frustrating losses, although the Mountaineers have generally approached the problem from the opposite direction.
Kansas has frequently played reasonably well defensively, only to surrender a critical late drive. West Virginia has spent much of the season allowing opponents to move the football almost at will. Last week against Texas Tech, the Mountaineers scored 48 points, took a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter, and lost 53-48.
Sounds pretty familiar, doesn’t it?
Both teams have demonstrated that they can produce enough offense to win games. Both have also demonstrated that producing enough offense doesn’t necessarily mean winning.
The question may not be which team gains more yards Saturday. It may be which team does a better job of converting those yards into points, protecting the football, and making a defensive stop when it actually matters.
Unfortunately, Kansas hasn’t exactly inspired confidence in those departments.
PREDICTION
There are plenty of reasons to believe Kansas can win this game.
West Virginia’s defense is among the worst in college football, particularly against the pass. Kansas has the offensive personnel to exploit those weaknesses, and Isaiah Marshall’s ability to run should create additional problems for a defense that already struggles to contain explosive plays.
The Jayhawks also have the better defense statistically, and the recent performances of Leroy Harris, Blake Herold, and David Santiago provide some encouragement against a West Virginia offensive line dealing with injuries.
But the Mountaineers have significant advantages of their own. Michael Hawkins and Cam Cook are a formidable rushing combination, and Kansas has struggled against physical rushing attacks. West Virginia is also playing at home, where the Jayhawks have won just once in eight previous visits.
And then there’s the small matter of Kansas repeatedly finding ways to lose close games.
I expect both teams to move the football. Kansas should have success throwing against the Mountaineers, while West Virginia will probably find plenty of opportunities to run the football. Even if one team or the other finds itself down by multiple scores at some point, I’d be hesitant to call ballgame. This game should remain competitive well into the fourth quarter.
And that’s where things get interesting. Because after everything we’ve watched this season, predicting Kansas to win another close game requires a rather substantial leap of faith. Still, West Virginia’s defense is bad enough that the Jayhawks might not need to be particularly efficient on every possession to score. And if Kansas can avoid turnovers, I like their chances.
But I had too much kool-aid last week. I’m taking the Over, but…
West Virginia 45, Kansas 42
EXTRA POINT
The last time Kansas won in Morgantown, the Jayhawks scored 55 points in a 55-42 overtime victory in 2022. Well that’s weird, you might say. How did KU win by two scores with college overtime rules?
KU went on offense first in overtime. Jalon Daniels threw a four-yard touchdown pass to Quentin Skinner, and then Cobee Bryant intercepted JT Daniels and returned it for another touchdown to end the game. The extra point wasn’t attempted after the defensive score.
Something similar has only happened three times in FBS history:
1996 USC at Arizona State, 1998 Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan, and 2022 KU at West Virginia.
Kinda cool to be on the right side of history, isn’t it?
