It wasn’t long ago that Sean McVay expressed that Puka Nacua had to prove himself as a reliable person before the L.A. Rams would consider extending him like an irreplaceable player, but three weeks into the season it has become apparent that McVay and Matthew Stafford probably need Puka more than he needs them. Puka Nacua will be a number one receiver no matter where he goes and there will be no shortage of teams ready to backup the Brinks for him as a free agent, so it appears that no amount of bad
behavior could change the fact that star players have all the leverage.
Even when Nacua isn’t on the field he’s making an impact. It’s more apparent than ever that the Rams are just not a good enough team without him, that Stafford’s deep shots aren’t threatening to any defense, so will the front office commit to him now or risk losing him forever? Could his absence even be related to his lack of a commitment?
ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio, for all his flaws, addressed the elephant in the room that nobody else seems to want to talk about: Even if Nacua is legitimately injured, it behooves him to wait this out as long as possible because the Rams haven’t given him a contract extension.
“Yes, Nacua’s contract has been delayed by his off-field issues. But with no financial security beyond this year, Nacua surely doesn’t want to risk aggravating the injury and missing even more time. Likewise, he doesn’t want to perform in a way that will reduce the perception that he deserves to be paid among the best in the league at the position.”
Because if Nacua plays zero more games this season but is a free agent with a clean bill of health in 2027, it has been proven over and over again that teams will ignore the red flags and pay up like he’s as good as ever. If Nacua could sign with another team today, there’s no question that there are teams out there willing to pay him as the highest-paid receiver in the NFL.
That would be at least $42.2 million per season.
It doesn’t sound like a very good investment for a player who already had an injury history before and is now set to probably miss his third game in a row, if he even avoids surgery that would keep him out a minimum of six weeks.
However, what if Nacua would rather sit out and have surgery BECAUSE the Rams are paying him $5 million instead of $45 million? Wouldn’t you err on the side of caution if playing might cost you $40 million?
Or $100 million?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba got a $120 million guaranteed from the Seattle Seahawks. Nacua is looking for at least that much and he would deserve it too because some team out there will pay it. They just will.
If the Rams don’t pay it, somebody will. If the Rams don’t pay it now, Nacua is motivated to not play for the Rams, knowing that another team is waiting for him when his contract is over.
And he knows it.
Puka Nacua knows that the Rams have invested in the 2026 season as if it’s their last:
- Trade for Myles Garrett
- Trade for Trent McDuffie
- Bring back Aaron Donald
- Sign Jaylen Watson
He knows that being 1-2 is an embarrassment for the Rams and he knows that L.A. needs him more than ever. How bad would it look if the Rams did all this work only to upset their biggest star and finish 10-7?
And don’t get it twisted: Nacua IS the Rams’ current biggest star. For all his faults, his self-inflicted wounds, and his inability to play right now, Nacua is bigger than the reigning MVP, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and Aaron Donald. He’s bigger than all of them.
This felt especially true on Sunday night, as Stafford struggled for the second time in three games, often launching “Puka balls” up the sidelines or on one of his classic crossing routes, only to find no Puka there to catch it. (I know we’re going to talk about numbers for Davante Adams and Konata Mumpfield, but I’m not talking about just pure receiving yards.)
Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams have averaged a full yard per play more when Nacua is on the field compared to when he isn’t. An entire yard PER PLAY.
Stafford completed just 54% of his attempts against the Broncos and needed 55 throws to get to 390 yards.
On passes of 20 or more yards this season, Stafford is 4-of-12 for 162 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Last year, Stafford had 10 touchdowns and only one interception on those throws.
His passer rating on deep passes is 70, compared to 122 during his MVP campaign, and is anyone going to argue that Nacua has nothing to do with that? Or McVay’s reputation as one of the NFL’s best offensive coaches, a label that got significantly better again after Nacua was drafted in 2023? Running 13 personnel is a lot easier to do when you have the NFL’s best receiver.
And Adams is not the NFL’s best receiver, nor is he 25.
Yes, Adams 166 yards per game without Nacua. Mumpfield almost had 100 last night. That’s a far cry from Nacua’s impact of changing how a defense plans for your offense like he does, and the Rams still only scored 26 points (only 10 in the second half, only one drive went longer than 63 yards, and only 2/12 drives resulted in a touchdown) despite all those YARDS.
Yes, the Rams beat up the Giants in Week 2 without Puka, but L.A.‘s schedule is only getting harder from there. The Rams have yet to play the Seahawks, have another game against the 49ers, plus Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, and so on. Puka looks at that schedule and knows how thin the margins have become after starting 1-2.
The Rams can’t expect to go into another playoffs as a wild card and emerge on the other end as Super Bowl winners. Winning three road playoff games in a row is nearly impossible.
That would mean L.A. needs to go 13-1 over the rest of the season to match or come close to the same record that the Seahawks had last year. Maybe 12-2 is just good enough, but any worse than that could be pushing it.
So who needs who more right now?
Puka Nacua, who — even if he doesn’t take another snap this season — could get $45 million per season from multiple teams as a free agent in 2027.
Or…
The Rams, who need to rebound from losing to both of the only two good teams they’ve faced so far this season, and the MVP, who launched 166 passes in 2025 to Nacua because that’s how much confidence he has in him?
A lot of people tried to play off Nacua as “replaceable” because he does have red flags, both in how he has conducted himself off of the field and how his physical playing style puts him in danger on the field. However, one thing cannot go unsaid:
The healthy version of Nacua is more important to the Rams than the unhealthy version of the Rams is important to Nacua.
