I’ll be honest. I’m not sure what to make of this team yet.
I was pretty sure they’d be good heading into the season, but wasn’t sure how good. I thought they had the talent and depth to contend for a top
four finish in the league. But so far this season they’ve been down three players we figured would have, at least, rotational roles. There have been flashes of brilliance, coupled with long ugly lags of uninspired play. They’ve dominated the glass, and also been bullied, all with the same lineups. I wasn’t sure they’d be a good shooting team, but through 4 games they’ve hit on 44% of their 3s which is as good as any 4 game stretch last year.
I think I expected more consistency and improved play from TO Barrett, and I was expecting more consistency from Jevon Porter. I expected less from Jayden Stone, and didn’t think we’d see this much of Luke Northweather. But through four games, the Dennis Gates Crash Lab™ has been in full effect.
Maybe I’d feel better if all the same game results had occurred but with the full roster and we could have seen what Annor Boateng, Trent Burns, and Trent Pierce look like this season. But as it stands, we’re still waiting on all three.
But what you saw against Minnesota was equal parts exhilarating, and frustrating. Missouri’s jumbo starting lineup was pushed around by the Gophers undersized, but beefy interior group. The first shot defense wasn’t bad, but it doesn’t matter if you don’t collect the boards. Minny only scored 5 points off second chances in the first half, but each of the 11 collected rebounds felt demoralizing. Once the Tigers gave up on the bigger lineups, their speed and shooting began to frustrate Minnesota’s attack, and the began mounting a comeback.
With 8:04 left on the clock, Minnesota led by 9. By the 8:50 mark in the second half, Missouri had flipped their lead all the way to 16. The onslaught finally relented with about 5:43 to go when Barrett slammed home a steal to expand the lead to 22.
TEAM STATS
This is a weird box score. It’s not normal to get smoked on the glass like that and win by that much. The Four Factors exist because they do a pretty good job indicating who won the game. But you also really don’t see a rebounding disadvantage followed by this big of a disparity in shooting. Missouri also really cleaned up the rebounding from one half to the next.
Total rebounds from Half 1 to Half 2: MINN 24-11 vs MIZZ 14-10. Offensive rebounds from half 1 to half 2: MINN 11-0, TIE 3-3. It really came down to: Just stop getting killed on the glass.
- We talk enough about shooting variance, so it’s worth pointing out Minnesota shot really poorly. They’ve been good so far this early in the season, but the shots weren’t falling. Cade Tyson has been the leading scorer and best player and he got loose for some good shots in and around the rim, thanks to Niko Medved’s offensive sets. But he couldn’t get going from deep, and without three point makes, the Gophers couldn’t keep up with the Missouri offense.
- On the flip side, Mizzou shot well! If you even out the three point makes this game looks a lot closer, and probably reflects what the analytics thought this game was going to be. Sometimes you just can’t account for momentum of a big run.
- Missouri never really struggled to get good looks, they just let Minnesota dictate terms early on and the game settled into a slog. The Tigers didn’t want to play a slow paced game, and it barely hit 30 possessions by halftime.
That was that. Play your best guys in their best positions, be competitive on the glass. Once the game began to open up, the Gophers couldn’t keep up.
INDIVIDUAL STATS
Trifecta: Mark Mitchell, Jacob Crews, Jayden Stone
On the season: Mark Mitchell 9, Jayden Stone 6, Anthony Robinson 4, Jacob Crews 4, Shawn Phillips 1
Mea Culpa on Jayden Stone. I’ve been very skeptical on his translation as a high major rotational player, mostly because the defensive evidence was ugly. Through the first two games the numbers reflected what we’d seen on tape, but an important part of playing defense is being active and playing with energy, even D’Moi Hodge can attest to that. Hodge was awful with his on the ball coverage, but his activity made up for a lot of the time. Activity alone can usually get you to being adequate, and we’d seen he was capable of helping offensively. The last two games he’s changed the narrative, so I’m at least hopeful he can continue to get better in that regard.
But the key to this game was Jacob Crews. For one, he rebounded. Shawn Phillips and Jevon Porter combined for one rebound in 24 minutes. Crews had 8 in 27 minutes. So while Luke Northweather was spelling in to give the Tigers some size, he wasn’t a productive rebounder. Missouri really needed someone else to step up, and Crews plus Mitchell, and some physical guards (TO and Stone). Gang rebounding can work!
LOL @ Luke’s line here. 50% of the minutes, 5.7% usage (doesn’t take shots unless it’s an open three), non-existant shot rate, no assist rate, 100% floor rate and a 300 (!!!!!) offensive rating. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything like it for a guy that was on the floor as much as he was.
It was also nice to see Sebastian Mack knock down a few outside shots. I like that he’s still going to take some even if they weren’t falling early in the season. Mack being even a nominal threat makes him a bigger threat to do what he’s good at, which is getting going to the basket and getting to the free throw line.
We haven’t yet even mentioned Mark Mitchell and he was, well, great. Sometime I’ve noticed, and maybe it’s not something that stands out much, but he’s making tougher guarded shots near but not at the rim. A year ago he would move away from body contact, and this year he appears to be absorbing the contact and allowing himself to receive the contact and using it to convert the basket. Some of that is a natural strength progression, but it’s also something you have to work on.
For as important to this team as Anthony Robinson is, it was really nice to see the Tigers snatch this game completely away from Minnesota without him on the floor. Yes, Mitchell is a huge key to the team as well, but to have your guards be TO Barrett, Jayden Stone, and Jacob Crews while you went from about 8 or 10 points up to 20 points up is something that should help this team have confidence in it’s depth moving forward.
We still need to see if Porter and Phillips are able to provide consistent production. But it’s hard to be too mad about how the game went after you beat a decent power conference team by 20+ points.
