The Miami Hurricanes (6-1) are finally leaving the state of Florida in the 2025 season to face the SMU Mustangs (5-3) on Saturday, November 1st at noon on ESPN.
The Hurricanes have a 70% win expectancy
over SMU per ESPN and are double-digit favorites (be afraid) on the road over the Mustangs.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly and the SP+ the Hurricanes are 11th in the country while SMU is 42nd. Miami is 16th on offense, 14th on defense and 13th in kicking. SMU is 44th on offense, 44th on defense and 87th in kicking.
Miami is 25th in FBS as the ‘Canes convert on 42% of their 3rd downs. The ‘Canes are 32nd on 4th down with a 64% conversion rating. SMU is 97th in FBS on 3rd down with 36% conversion percentage while they’re 12th in FBS on 4th down converting 71% of the time.
On defense, Miami is 17th in FBS on 3rd down holding teams to under 32% on their conversion attempts. The Mustangs defense is 40th on 3rd down with a 36% rate on the money down.
Miami is 34th in turnover margin per game at +0.5 while SMU is 14th at +1.0. SMU turns the ball over a lot (see: Kevin Jennings) but also takes the ball away.
Miami is 91st in penalty yards per game while being flagged for 60 yards per contest. SMU is 102nd in the country at just under 62 yards per game.
SMU has missed two PAT’s and are 10-of-17 on field goals this season. SMU is good but not great on kick returns (20 yards per).
The Film
The similar opponent for Miami and SMU just turns out to be Stanford. The Mustangs beat the Cardinal 34-10 on October 11th. SMU entered the game as 20 point favorites and covered the spread, much like Miami did this past weekend.
SMU won the game while finishing only 5-of-13 on money downs while Stanford went 7-of-19 on combined 3rd and 4th downs. Stanford turned the ball over twice while SMU avoided a turnover.
The flags were flying as SMU was flagged for 53 yards in penalties and Stanford was hit for 95 yards. Both teams made all of their field goals and PAT’s and nothing stood out in the punt or return games.
SMU OFFENSE
QB Kevin Jennings averaged 8.2 yards per attempt against SU with two TD’s, zero turnovers- but it wasn’t a big game on the ground for him.
Chris Johnson Jr. averaged 19.2 yards per carry with two touchdowns and an 87-yard long on the ground, and caught a 42-yard touchdown pass as well. TJ Harden averaged only 3.3 yards per carry as the thumper on the ground.
SMU’s QB hit seven different targets with four going for double-digit yards per catch vs. SU. So they’re going to spread it around and hit on some more explosive plays.
The SMU O-Line did allow two sacks and three TFL’s to Stanford.
Above– Jennings is absolutely a sackable mobile QB. He mixes in being oblivious with doing too much and can be brought down. Keionte Scott flying off the edge on a zone blitz could be the medicine for bringing him down.
Above- “WHEEL!“ No one has their eyes on the back and he’s running the deadly wheel route. SMU runs a post-fin combo to drag the CB down and in while the RB slips out to the numbers.
Above– The defenders finally notice the wheel but it’s too late, the ball is in his hands and he’s got a head of steam off his re-acceleration.
Above– Jennings can hit a pretty back shoulder fade route and SMU has all types of WR’s to utilize from tall and rangy to short and quick.
Above– Zone backs need to bang it in, bounce off one cut or bend it back on a one cut move. He ran into the ‘bang’ and step cut and took off (below).
Above– Pursuit angles have been an “Achilles heel” for Miami. You can’t get out leveraged by Chris Johnson. Well, you can, just try not to.
Above– Jennings is SHIFTY and shakes off this sack before a wild play that’ll be pictured below. You can’t leave your feet against him: come to balance, stay on his outside hip, track his hip, wrap his thighs.
Above– And then after a dump off in the flat Johnson shakes every and dives into the end zone. Pursuit, vice tackling… gotta have him bottled up with leverage.
SMU DEFENSE
The Stangs defense held Stanford to 10 points while Miami held them to seven. SMU also allowed one TD pass from Ben Gulbranson, and picked him once with a 96-yard TD return.
SMU allowed Cole Tabb to rush for 6.9 yards per carry while Micah Ford added 3.3 per rush as well. The Stangs defense did come up with six sacks, eight TFL’s and six PBU’s vs. the Cards.
The Mustangs let CJ Williams go off on them with 15.6 yards per catch and one TD. Five different Cardinal receivers hit the double-digit yards per catch mark vs. SMU.
SMU’s defense is tied for 10th in FBS with over three sacks per game, and they’re tied for 23rd in TFL’s with 6.9 per game. 6-4, 250 pound DE Cameron Robertson could be an issue for Miami’s OL as he has five sacks this year.
Above– If Miami can start to use TE’s or WR’s to stalk inside on the 2nd level defenders (LBers). This springs an explosive run for Stanford. I like it. This way the C-Gap runs can possibly hit.
Above– SMU can really get after the QB and you can see the RT getting beat on a speed rush here and the QB isn’t mobile as we know and is a sitting duck off play-action.
Above– One area of concern is that the SMU interior DL are 310+ pounds and nasty. James Brockermeyer, the Miami center, has to get himself off of skates and drive his legs. This could be a make or break game for Brockermeyer and faith in Miami to develop a center.
Above– “What’s open vs SMU?” Maybe a throwback to the TE in the flat off of PA? This could be a nice play for UM against an aggressive defense and a quick hitter to get Elija Lofton going.
Above– Two SMU defenders give up a deep middle shot to Stanford. I don’t want Carson Beck to take those shots but if he does it could work… COULD (please don’t take that shot).
Above– SU hits the glance for a TD against SMU right over that LB’s head and under the CB. Another risky hole shot by the Cardinal vs. SMU. Another shot I’m staying away from as Shanon Dawson with Beck at QB.
Above– SMU with a back side run blitz for a huge TFL. I’m surprised more teams don’t try to aggressively send someone from the weak side (away from TE) knowing Miami loves Duo to the TE and jet sweep (you’d run right into Toney) weak.
Above– This time SMU makes them pay. The DE runs blitz peel and his peel off makes for an easy pick.
The Forecast
The main theme for the Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami over SMU this summer was a Cadillac of Games moment and I don’t disagree now that it’s time to play the game. The individual keys for Miami will be:
1- Make Jennings bust not boom. If any defense can allegedly do it it’s supposed to be Miami’s. Jennings is a high risk high reward player (ACC leading eight INT’s already in ‘25), but he also leads the ACC in TD passes (17). If Miami can force him into risky plays this could get ugly for SMU. Then again if he emerges turnover free it could be bust for Miami instead.
2- Slow down CJJ. Chris Johnson Jr. averages 7.5 yards per carry and 12.5 yards per catch with four scrimmage TD’s on the season. The former Hurricane will be looking for a huge game against his old squad
3- Protect the football. Carson Beck absolutely cannot self-destruct against SMU. They are too explosive when they aren’t busy turning the football over. SMU is 2nd in FBS in takeaways with 2.4 per game.
Prediction: SMU by 1. While I think Miami is the better team with more talent and a better offense and defense… something about this feels like a potential upset. SMU is on a bounce-back after losing to Wake Forest and Miami has stumbled around for seven of the last nine quarters.
It’s Miami’s first out-of-state road test and it’s at 11am in Dallas instead of a night game in Florida. Everything spells whacky game with Rhett Lashlee as a Riverboat Rhett type that’ll run flea flickers if he sees the shot, potentially fake punts and onside kicks as well.
