It is game week! There was a little appetizer of football this past weekend and excitement for the season is at peak levels. As usual, we enter the season with a number of questions about this team and just how good they can be. And as usual, the optimism runs high in late August before we see the team on the field. But it all comes down to expectations. What are realistic expectations for this team, and can they achieve them?
Indiana’s remarkable run over the past couple of seasons has simultaneously
given non-helmet schools hope and given their fans reason to develop unrealistic expectations. While I may be fairly optimistic about this season for Minnesota, a run to Indianapolis and a bid in the College Football Playoff is not the standard for which I will hold this team to.
So what is a realistic expectation for this team and what does that mean, tangibly?
We have talked previously about how the floor has been raised for this program. Year Zero was a 5-7 season while they were implementing their culture and dealing with injuries and lack of depth, especially along the offensive line. The COVID season of 2020 was a 3-4 buzzkill following the 2019 season. And then 2023 was a meandering 5-7 regular season with some blowout losses, but they also managed to beat Nebraska and Iowa. The floor has been raised. Every program will have down years and up years; the down years are now expected to be no worse than 5-7, but even that is beginning to feel unlikely in any given year.
The biggest negative on the Fleck resume might be the fact that his teams rarely exceed expectations, with 2019 being the glaring exception. The team finished with 9-4 records in 2021 and 2022, but those were more missed opportunities than they were exceeding expectations. Losing to Bowling Green in 2021, going 0-2 against Iowa in those seasons and just barely missing out on winning the former Big Ten West. Those were talented teams who frankly should have done more.
So the questions for 2026 are: what are baseline expectations, what does a year when we exceed expectations look like and can we achieve those?
I’m not going to get into the nitty-gritty of the schedule; Blake covered the challenging Big Ten schedule. But instead, let’s look at the results. Where do we want the Gophers to end up after the regular season?
The Dream Scenario – CFP & Rose Bowl
Likelihood: extremely unlikely, but not zero
Minnesota manages to finish in the top three or four of the Big Ten and sneaks into the CFP, they win their on-campus game and then are fortunate enough to get to go to the Rose Bowl.
I’m not spending any time on this scenario. Could it happen? Sure. The strength of schedule would be good enough to get in if they manage to get to 10 wins. But this is not a baseline for my expectations this season. This would be a dream season where Drake Lindsey explodes and we are spending the month of December fretting about Fleck taking a better job.
A Very Good Bowl Game – Capital One or Outback
Likelihood: unlikely, even with a good season
This is much more realistic, but would still be a tough hill to climb when you consider the other programs expected to be in the mix for these bowls.
Penn State and Michigan are the teams favored to be in these slots. USC potentially is in this conversation as well. As much as I’d love to see the Gophers in this conversation, the reality is that they would have to clearly finish ahead of two of these teams.
Capital One – Penn State and USC have both not been there in the last four seasons, Minnesota was last there in 2014. Michigan was just there last season, effectively ruling them out of if this year.
Outback – Michigan was just here in 2024. Penn State and USC have not been here in the last four seasons and this was Minnesota’s destination in 2019.
Nashville or Bust – Music City Bowl
Likelihood: chances are OK, but it has to be earned
For my money, this is the most realistic possibility that is also exceeding expectations. The Gophers have not been to Nashville since 2005 and this bowl has only increased in prestige.
Most very early bowl projections have Iowa, Nebraska or Washington going to Nashville. Nebraska is unlikely, after playing there this past postseason. But Iowa and Washington are formidable obstacles to overcome for this destination.
But this destination would be a great achievement for Minnesota this year. The schedule is challenging, which is why I believe this is the most realistic ceiling this season. But when the Dukes Mayo Bowl is the most prestigious bowl you have been to in the last five seasons, Music City would be a significant jump up.
How does this happen? Well, they would need a minimum of eight wins. Last year, Minnesota was 7-5, and they were in the conversation for Music City, but ultimately Iowa was chosen and they went on to beat Vanderbilt.
Eight regular season wins, especially with this strength of schedule, would put them right in the mix for Music City. This is the scenario where they lose to the four teams that are clearly supposed to be better (@Wash, Michigan, @Indiana, @Penn State) and then they win the rest. If you drop a game to Iowa or Mississippi State, you have to make it up with a big upset.
This would be a nice bump for the program and a fantastic bowl destination for fans. If the Rose Bowl isn’t going to happen, this is the game I want to see us earn.
The Rest – Las Vegas Bowl / Alamo / Cactus / Mayo / Pinstripe / First Responder
Likelihood: very good
This group is obviously the most likely scenario. You can eliminate the Cactus Bowl (formerly the Rate Bowl, formerly the Insight Bowl, formerly the Copper Bowl) as we were just there last year. And the Mayo Bowl isn’t out of the question, but unlikely, as we were there in 2024.
Which leaves us with Las Vegas, Alamo, Pinstripe and First Responder.
Las Vegas would be the premier destination of this grouping and I would still consider a trip to Vegas as a good result from this season. It’s warmer than New York and more fun for the players and fans.
The Alamo would first be given to a former Pac-12 school, likely Washington.
The First Responder Bowl is not technically a Big Ten tie-in, but is an option for a Big Ten team lower down the list.
Realistically, I’d be very happy with Music City or above; I’d be pleased with the Las Vegas Bowl and anything below wouldn’t do much for me. A winning season with another bowl game is still nothing to be displeased with, but that season of exceeding expectations would be fun to see.
