The crew at the Daily Norseman is doing its usual stellar job covering the opening days of training camp, including an increasingly intriguing quarterback competition. The same goes for the news that the Vikings brought in safety Jamal Adams and extended offensive tackle Brian O’Neill. We’re so back.
This allows me to vent a little. The topic? The Vikings’ head-scratching over/under of 8.5 wins for the upcoming season.
I’ve noted several times over the past year or so how astute the oddsmakers are.
They tend to know what they’re doing, whether it’s good or bad for the team(s) you root for. This time, I’m truly at a loss.
Take last year, when the over/under was 8.5 wins early in the offseason and 9.5 wins in some places just before Week 1.
Did I agree with it? Nope. Chugging a gallon or 12 of purple Kool-Aid (as always) was a contributing factor. Did I understand it? Absolutely. Rolling with a first-time, unproven starter at quarterback alone was enough to justify a healthy drop from 14 wins the year prior. Known unknowns were there.
And guess what? The oddsmakers were right on, and yours truly was wrong. I had them at 12, while it took a Week 18 home win over a Green Bay Packers team already locked in the 7th seed for the over to hit at 9-8… or not, if you didn’t get in early.
TOO MUCH NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THE UNDER
Fast-forward to now, and the Vikings are again staring at an 8.5 over/under for the 2026 season. That is dead last in the NFC North, behind the Lions at 10.5, the Packers at 9.5, and the Bears at 9.5. Gross.
Unlike last year and most years before it, I can’t get my head around the logic this time.
The Vikings entered the 2025 season with a strength of schedule ranked 4th- to 7th-hardest, depending on the metrics used (e.g., opponents’ prior-year winning percentage vs. projected over/under). This year, it’s ranked 11th to 17th.
As I noted previously, the overall quarterback play in 2025 was the worst since at least 2013, probably 2007. And those offenses were run-first, Adrian Peterson-led units.
The numbers tell the story. Last year, per Statmuse, the McCarthy- (mostly injured) Wentz- Brosmer trifecta managed only 3,200 gross passing yards, about 1,200 fewer than in 2024. Gross is the keyword here. This ranked 30th in passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Vikings ranked 28th in EPA per play.
We went 9-8 and missed the playoffs by ½ game.
For the Vikings to not match that mark and therefore not hit the over for 2026, most, if not all, of the following will need to occur:
QUARTERBACK/OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCE (REGARDLESS OF STARTER)
- Kyler Murray, a former #1 overall pick with over 20,000 career passing yards, a 67% completion percentage, and a 2:1 TD-INT ratio, will need to be so bad in this offense that he gets benched. This would defy historical precedent, given what KOC has done with veterans such as Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens.
- J.J. McCarthy, who was 6-4 as a starter despite the struggles, will have to make zero improvement during an offseason when he made it a priority to do just that. No additional comfort or growth in KOC’s offense in his third year. No progress in mechanics. No development. Zilch. Nada.
- Carson Wentz, if called upon for whatever reason, healthy and with a full offseason in the system, will somehow not be able to reach the level of “passable” when he had little trouble getting the ball to Justin Jefferson when he could actually move last season.
- The best WR trio in the NFL – and the Vikings’ best since Carter-Moss-Reed – will not only fail to live up to the hype but also embrace mediocrity. This says nothing of the depth advantage of having three receivers with experience in the #1 role (Addison in 2023, when Jefferson got hurt; Jauan Jennings on the 49ers in 2024).
- The offensive line will need to regress a year after its best player, Christian Darrisaw, was nowhere near 100% and is now, by all accounts, healthy. Donovan Jackson’s development will need to stall. Will Fries and Brian O’Neill would both need to have subpar seasons. Blake Brandel underperforming as the starting center – despite a full offseason of work – is a far more likely scenario, but nowhere near an insurmountable obstacle. The Vikings have been navigating less-than-stellar center play for years.
DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCE
- Question marks along the defensive line are real. The Vikings could have kept either Jonathan Allen or Javon Hargrave, but the internal calculations clearly led them to pursue the current course. Both Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange will need to make limited contributions, while Jalen Redmond and the established depth will need to perform worse than expected for it to reach crisis level. It could happen, but a slight regression is more likely. Allen and Hargrave didn’t exactly have All-Pro seasons, either.
- Dallas Turner will need to be a far worse and more inconsistent replacement for Jonathan Greenard than expected. I’ve been on record as not favoring the decision to trade Greenard away (especially given the return), and I assume regression. Still, I don’t expect the pass rush to collapse in a way that would dramatically impact overall defensive performance. Brian Flores is adept at finding unique and unpredictable ways to pressure the quarterback. Which leads me to…
- Brian Flores would need to forget how to coach defense. He came here and promptly turned an atrocious defense that ranked 28th in points and 31st in yards into one that ranked 13th and 16th, respectively. The following two seasons brought Top 10 finishes in points (5th and 7th) and defensive DVOA (2nd and 6th). Adding a schematically versatile player like Jamal Adams not only addresses a potential Harrison Smith retirement but also an underwhelming Dallas Turner showing (Adams has 22.5 career sacks). Of course, as we’re the Vikings, there is always precedent for awful things. We watched Mike Zimmer lose his fastball in rapid, dramatic, 2015 Peyton Manning-esque fashion. I could write another 1,000 words on why I don’t think this will happen with Flores, but let’s say it would be… a stretch.
MAKE IT MAKE SENSE
I can’t understand it. Far, far, far more would have to go wrong for the Vikings not to hit the over on 8.5 wins. Can it happen? Definitely. This franchise has watched its stadium roof collapse, missed its first-round draft pick, inadvertently created the 1990s Dallas Cowboys dynasty, and remains the pacesetter for improbable, gut-wrenching, heartbreaking playoff losses. Going 8-9 or worse and missing the playoffs would be nothing for us.
That said, this team is too well-coached and has too much talent. The Vikings have effectively taken out an insurance policy against the only thing that could prevent 9 wins by how they’ve assembled the quarterback room.
Or maybe I’m just delusional.
