It’s August, which means it’s time for the annual statistical doppelgänger series.
Refresher: over the next few weeks, I’ll be running Wizards players through an algorithm built atop a database of every player season from 1977-78 to present. The algorithm compares players across 14 statistical categories and determines which player seasons from NBA history are most similar. The system is dubbed: The Statistical Doppelgänger Machine.
The Machine was borne from the desire to do something other than the eyeball
comps, which often relied on superficial similarities like skin color, height, and perceived style. Mileage may vary, but I personally got tired of hearing about the next Magic, next Larry, or next Jordan.
Results from The Machine have been interesting through the years, at least to me. While position isn’t one of the factors, it weirdly tends to produce comps from the same general grouping. The outputs are sometimes surprising — different styles and perceived player types producing similar results.
This year’s Wizards produced one result so on the nose it kinda pisses me off, which you’ll see below. One comp (that I’ll be writing about in a few days) was so startling that I went back and double-checked to make sure I’d run the process correctly.
Enough preamble. Today, let’s talk the non-rookie player most likely to become a bona fide NBA star: Alex Sarr.
The second overall pick in 2024 (he’d go No. 1 in a re-draft, in my opinion), Sarr improved markedly in his second season. At least when he could stay on the floor. Last season, he managed just 48 games and 1,300 minutes. As a rookie, he made it 67 games and 1,800 minutes. For those who don’t feel like doing the math, that means he missed about 30% of the team’s games his first two seasons.
My guess is that he would have played more if the Wizards had been trying to win, but it’s impossible to know for sure. It’s similarly difficult to know how seriously to take aspects of his performance. When I analyzed his performance ekg in May, I noted the decline in his production as the season wore on. Was that decline indicative of his true abilities or a symptom of a team committed to losing?
That’s impossible to know and is one of the perils of prolonged tanking.
To the doppelgängers:
- Kristaps Porzingis | 2015-16 | New York Knicks | Age: 20 — This comp is perfectly annoyingly infuriating, mainly because it just might fit too well considering Sarr’s history of missed games and the fact that he’s dealing with a fractured right foot this summer. Porzingis was an enormously talented big man (7-3) whose career has been pocked with an array of leg and foot injuries. This comp season was Porzingis’ rookie year. He played 72 games, which was his career high.
- Jared Sullinger | 2014-15 | Boston Celtics | Age: 22 — This comp is less worrisome, primarily because it’s more easily dismissed. This was first of consecutive good seasons from Sullinger. His career cratered when his weight ballooned. That seems unlikely to be an issue with Sarr.
- Bobby Portis | 2017-18 | Chicago Bulls | Age: 22 — The production per possession was eerily similar between the two, though Sarr’s overall performance grades out better in my PPA metric. One major difference: Portis was one of the worst defenders I’ve ever seen who actually tried, and Sarr was a very good defender when he was trying.
- Marvin Bagley III | 2020-21 and 2021-22 | Sacramento Kings and Detroit Pistons | Ages: 21 and 22 — Like Sarr, a second overall pick in his draft. Unlike Sarr, he went ahead of generational stars like Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It’s arguable that Stephon Castle could go No. 1 in a redraft, but Sarr would still land second. I want to dismiss this comp, though I’m not sure we should. Some key differences: defense (Bagley wasn’t a rim protector and was weak defending in space), and playmaking (Sarr averaged more than twice as many assists on a per possession basis). You might want to say “shooting,” but Bagley shot 34.3% from deep in the first of these two comp years on 4.7 attempts per 100 team possessions and then his shot got worse. And Bagley’s health has been a major issue throughout his career.
- Chet Holmgren | 2023-24 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Age: 21 — Hey great, another injury-prone big man. This was Holmgren’s rookie year because he missed what should have been his first season with a broken foot. He played all 82 games, missed 50 games the following season with a hip fracture, and appeared in 69 regular season games last season. He’s been a terrific defender and versatile offensive threat, who’s been good enough to merit a maximum contract extension that starts this season.
If you’re not happy with these comps, well…the names don’t get a whole lot better, in part because the next few are different seasons from the same names — Sullinger, Bagley, Holmgren each have other seasons in the top 10 “similar” seasons. One fairly promising name lanes ninth: Jaren Jackson Jr.
I qualified “promising” because while Jackson has sublime defensive abilities (he was Defensive Player of the Year in 2023), I also think he’s gotten overrated overall. His high usage and below average offensive efficiency puts a drag on the team’s offense, and his rampant fouling undercuts his defensive value. Sarr doesn’t foul nearly so much.
One way I’ve looked at doppelgänger results is to see how long it takes to get to a Hall of Famer. In Sarr’s case, it’s a while — a Chris Webber season from his time with the Bullets shows up in the 190s. But seasons from Thomas Bryant and Andray Blatche show up sooner.
If you’re not worried enough by the presence of Porzingis and Bagley in the top five, the extended list is chock full of talented players who had disappointing careers due to injuries, attitude, or limitations. At the risk of sending all you readers off to stare into the abyss, the list includes names like Jabari Parker, Jahlil Okafor, and Michael Beasley — in addition to Bryant and Blatche. sigh
Okay, that’s enough on Sarr and his comps. The next player through the machine has some bizarre and wildly encouraging comps.
