Following a loss to Türkiye that was very much an exercise in self-preservation, the USA now looks to face Bosnia & Herzegovina in the Round of 32. But first… there was the Türkiye game and while it was a lot of things – a second pick roster to get the starters some well needed rest, a chance for Christian Pulisic to stretch his legs, and a game with some fight for the hosts – it was also a loss. A loss that was snatched from the jaws of a draw in the last moment to provide the team with an emotional
jolt that they will hopefully remember and feel extra motivated to avoid again in the coming matches.
BiH comes into the match having drawn Canada, losing to Switzerland, and soundly beating Qatar. They needed a win and a draw at least to get out of the group and they find themselves one of the third place teams to advance in the tournament. They follow the tried and true World Cup strategy of being compact and well organized defensively, eschewing possession, and bypassing their opponents’ press in favor of going Route 1 to try and find scoring chances. It’s not beautiful but it is effective, though they do have players that can provide a creative spark like Wisconsin’s Esmir Bajraktarević.
The work for the USMNT is pretty straight forward: break down a defense likely set up in well organized banks of four, be cautious about BiH hitting on the counter, and not let The Dragons pull the press so far down field that the long balls find significant open space to attack. So far, the USA has been able to make their opponents react to them by scoring early. That aggression and desire to get the first goal needs to continue as it sets the tempo for the rest of the match.
As far as roster choices, the only decision that Poch might have is if he wants to give Weston McKennie a break. Wes played in defensive midfield where Tyler Adams will likely start so the question is if he sits for a more attacking option like Sebastian Berhalter who was excellent in the loss to Türkiye. It will also be interesting to see if Poch goes to his bench earlier than he has been in the tournament. Except for Pulisic coming off due to injury against Paraguay and coming on for a little over 30 minutes against Türkiye, he hasn’t gone to the bench before the 71st minute.
Finally, the game is set up for BiH to avoid taking risks, use tactical fouls, and get to a penalty shootout where the playing field is a more in their favor. If it comes to that the USMNT players who might be called on for spot kicks are likely Christian Pulisic who has an 86% conversion rate, Folarin Balogun and/or Ricardo Pepi who have experience taking them, and players with composure and focus like Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, and Brenden Aaronson. Getting them all on the field may also require careful substitution planning and it’s yet to be seen how Poch will approach that. In goal, Matt Freese is the likely starter and his three penalty save performance against Costa Rica in the Gold Cup shows his ability to make tough saves in high pressure situations. That said, Poch may make a change and bring in Matt Turner who has a stellar 48% penalty save rate in his career.
A key player in the game for the USA will be Folarin Balogun. He has the ability to run onto balls played through compact defensive lines and the clever movement to find space in the box to create scoring chances. The forward nearly scored on the break against Australia but his finishing will need to be better in this elimination game. The game is shaping up well for the USA to advance to the Round of 16, but the Americans will need to pick up where they left off against their first two opponents to accomplish that feat.
