The Bundesliga returns this weekend, after a long and eventful international break, with Borussia Dortmund hosting Werder Bremen on Friday evening.
After a torrid time in the Bundesliga last season, barely surviving relegation, Werder Bremen got off to a good start before the break, picking up seven points from their first four games. Wins over RB Leipzig and Augsburg and a draw with FC Köln have helped Die Werderaner climb to eighth in the Bundesliga. They will be looking to extend their good start to the season by
picking up points against BVB tomorrow.
Borussia Dortmund will have other ideas. BVB are the only team with a 100% record in the Bundesliga and currently sit pretty at the top of the table. Three points against Werder Bremen on Friday would extend their lead over Bayern Munich to five points and help build momentum on their own terrific start to the season.
Player to Watch: Niclas Füllkrug
There were a few players I could have chose from for this. Werder Bremen’s success this season has been a team effort. But the primary goal threat is a familiar face for Dortmund fans.
Niclas Füllkrug spent last season on loan at AC Milan following a tough couple of seasons at West Ham, but he returned to Germany in the summer, rejoining his old club Werder Bremen on loan for the season. Since returning home things have looked much brighter for the 33-year old striker. Füllkrug has bagged three goals in his first four games for Werder Bremen, helping them get off to a strong start to the season.
Still, Die Werderaner’s are very much a team. Eren Dinkçi provides secondary goal threat from the right-hand side of the pitch, while a lot of Bremen’s creative focus comes from the left flank, with Marco Grüll linking up with Chuki to create chances for Füllkrug.
Though Werder Bremen’s offense has started fast this season, some of that looks like Ball Go Net, having scored eight goals off just 5.4 xG (which ranks fourth-lowest in the Bundesliga). Werder Bremen’s defense looks to be where their real strength lies, with their xGA ranked eighth overall and Predicting Ball rating them as the sixth best defense in the league. Hopefully BVB can knock their rating down a bit tomorrow night.
Predicted Lineup
Dortmund are dealing with a few injuries and illnesses from the international break, so there is plenty of uncertainty about the lineup. Nico Schlotterbeck and Julian Ryerson are both doubts. I’ve opted for Schlotterbeck to sit it out but not Ryerson, simply because it’s harderto come up with a lineup that makes sense without Ryerson. That’s how this works, right?
It’s always unclear what things will look like after the international break, but a break this long and with several fitness issues is a cat among the pigeons. The starting eleven against Werder Bremen on Friday could look absolutely nothing like this. Who knows!
Score Prediction
Werder Bremen have started the season well but I think this is a mirage owing to a light schedule. Predicting Ball gives Dortmund a 63% win probability, while Bremen only have a 14.5% probability of coming away with all three points. I tend to agree. BVB should have enough to get the job done, even with several players missing.
Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Werder Bremen
Your Thoughts?
What is your prediction for Dortmund’s return tomorrow night? Let us know in the comments.
