A lot of this is going to sound negative, so let’s start with the positive. Xavier is 3-0 and mopping the floor with bad teams. Yes, they should be. Yes, so are most other good teams. Yes, that’s what you expect. Still, it’s happening this season and that’s reason to be happy here as a 41 degree rain falls outside. (Late fall in NE Ohio is not Ugg boots and pumpkin patches.) Wash out the preseason numbers and Xavier is 10th in efficiency this year. That’s not in a top 25 filled with no name teams,
either. Only two non-power conference teams remain near the top. The Musketeers have been legit. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that Xavier really cannot shoot the ball right now. Like, 273rd in the nation from behind the arc, 27.5% three point shooting kind of bad. If you’re wondering how that compares to recent tournaments, only one of the 32 teams from the last two Sweet Sixteens shot under 30% behind the arc. So 27.5% is not sustainable nor an indicator of success. I’m guessing you knew that.
Some if this comes from guys who can shoot it not shooting it very well. Ruben Dominguez shot 40% last season in serious volume and has replicated only one of those things this year. Tru Washington shot 35.2% last season and is shooting 12% this year. Filip Borovicanin is an accomplished shooter and was doing ok until a 1-7 dropped him to 25% on the year.
And then there are the guys who just can’t shoot. Chance Westry isn’t a shooter and is 1-5 this season. Mike Nwoko’s 0-2 runs him to a stellar 1-14 on his career. Rolyns Aligbe just keeps churning along as a guy who shoots the ball decently but not a lot. Kalek House? Way too soon to tell with him. Only Jovan Milicevic and Gabriel Pozzato are currently making more than a third of their three point attempts.
Xavier is also not making the shots that every metric loves. From the corners the Musketeers are a combined 7-22. Those are the shots that almost every coach loves. They’re shorter, they usually come from rotation, and they provide a clean look. Xavier hasn’t made them. From above the rim Xavier is better than the national average on the left wing, but 19% on the right wing, and 22% from straight away.
Mississippi St. has a pretty average three point defense. Xavier then plays Cleveland St, who hasn’t been good at much anything, Iowa, Texas A&M, and Virginia. At that point, we will hit December. As depressing as that piece of information is, that will also be a good time to check back on how Xavier is shooting the ball. Iowa is a borderline elite three point defense. None of the other teams are anything special in either direction, really. That to say that if the Musketeers are still somewhere near where they are now, this is just who they are.
Which wouldn’t be good. There is reason for hope, though. Dominguez, Borovicanin, and Washington should all shoot better than they are. Milicevic won’t make 50% this year, but he can shoot it, so can Pozzato. Thus far Xavier has just run and defended teams to death and done it brutally efficiently. Come the grind of late January and February, they are going to need to start knocking down some shots. Whether they can remains to be seen.
