The Tampa Bay Rays completed two significant trades this afternoon. First, they dealt Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh as part of a three-team deal with the Astros involved as well. Tampa got two prospects back in the deal: Jacob Melton, an outfielder from Houston, who has some major league experience, as well as High-A pitcher Anderson Brito from Houston. They also sent starting pitcher Shane Baz and his three years of control to Baltimore in return for four prospects (Slater de Brun – OF, Caden Bodine
– C, Michael Forret – RHP, and Austin Overn – OF), along with a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick.
It’s hard to ever really know what the Rays are planning. Are they thinking two steps ahead, and this is all lining up for them to move three prospects to bring in an even better, more cost-controlled major leaguer than the ones they sent out? Did they look around the division and see the entire AL East* loading up, realize that they have absolutely no chance of competing in 2026, and therefore punt to 2027?
(*With the exception of the Boston Red Sox. They are not loading up. They have not signed a single free agent yet this offseason. Something that they have in common with only the Colorado Rockies.)
The biggest takeaway from these trades is that the Rays were willing to make a deal within the division with the Baltimore Orioles. Trading a young pitcher in Baz, with three years of control left, is out of the ordinary. If they are of the mind that they don’t have the horses to compete in 2026, then the next player to be on the move should be Yandy Diaz. Diaz is 34-years-old and has one year left on his deal, which pays him $12M but counts for $9 AAV against the competitive balance tax. Diaz would also have a conditional option that vests for 2027 at $13M if he tallies 500 plate appearances this upcoming season.
Let me see here: an affordable right-handed bat, who plays first base, hits the ball hard, rarely strikes out, and doesn’t require a “long-term deal”? I know a team that would be interested in that type of player.
Diaz’s power numbers in 2025 were certainly inflated by playing at Steinbrenner Field, a minor league field that, it should be noted, has the same dimensions as another team in the division’s major league field. 18 of Diaz’s 25 home runs came at home a season ago, so it would be appropriate to taper the expectation back to the 15 home run hitter that he has been for most of his career. However, over the past four years, a sample size that I feel a lot more comfortable with, Diaz has been among the best hitters in baseball with a .301/.379/.461 slash line. He ranked 10th in MLB during that time in wRC+ (min. 1500 PAs). Some of the names behind Diaz in that metric are shocking.
Over those four years from 2022-2025, Diaz’s .301 batting average is 4th in MLB, his .379 OBP is 7th, and with a 10.3 BB% and 14.0 K%, his BB:K ratio is 12th in baseball. For what Diaz lacks in home runs, he makes up for in doubles, tallying 128 doubles in that time. With Fenway Park having the number one park factor for doubles over the past three years, Diaz would be a doubles machine in Boston. He still stings the ball at 34-years-old, showing a 94th percentile Hard Hit% and Average Exit Velocity a season ago with a spray chart that utilized all fields.
Diaz played 114 games at designated hitter for the Rays a year ago and 37 at first base. During those 37 games, he amassed a negative-7 outs above average, which isn’t ideal. However, his right-handedness helps complement some of the other left-handed bats in the DH/1B mix for Boston, and this isn’t a team that has exactly prioritized defense at first base in recent years.
With only one “certain” year remaining on Diaz’s contract, along with a vesting option for a second, it seems feasible that the Sox could get a deal done without needing to include the “best of the best” prospects in return. I wrote last month that there are no excuses for why this team shouldn’t spend past the second luxury tax threshold, but until they prove otherwise, we should not expect them to. According to @RedSoxPayroll today, the team has $38.7M to spend before reaching that threshold, which would allow them to add one bat at a higher cost, and one at a lower one. Diaz would be the perfect fit for that second designation, provided that the other hitter can better contribute in the home run department. Now that we know the Rays will make trades within the division, all the more reason for Craig to pick up the phone.
