The San Francisco 49ers head to Seattle for the biggest matchup of the season as the two best teams in the NFC are set to do battle. The 49ers are 4-0 following a gritty win over the Denver Broncos, and the Seahawks are 3-1 after dismantling the Chargers. The two teams are far more similar than anyone expected. The margins will be thin, and the team that makes more plays and fewer mistakes will leave with a win. This feels like the rivalry from 2012 with two evenly matched teams.
What are the similarities
between the two teams over four weeks?
Explosive play rate allowed on defense
Now, the 49ers aren’t to be confused with a top-flight defense, but they currently sit at the top of the league with a 2.7% explosive play rate allowed (passes or rushes over 20 yards). How are they doing this? A combination of things, actually. First, the secondary has done a great job keeping everything in front of them. Raheem Morris has dialed up the right calls at the right time, and the offenses they have faced so far aren’t exactly vertical passing attacks.
Miami creates passing explosives diagonally with screens. Arizona has no desire to go downfield with Jacoby Brissett under center, and the same goes for Denver, although I’m sure Sean Payton wants to attack downfield; Bo Nix has no desire to.
Seattle is currently third in explosive play rate allowed at 4.9% and has allowed 2.2% of explosive passes, which is good for third in the NFL. Now, the run defense is seventh in rushing explosives allowed at 8.2%. That is where the 49ers have to take advantage on Sunday.
Coverage percentages
The 49ers have a new defensive coordinator in Morris, but the team has largely kept their zone coverage principles, with 45.8% of their calls being for Cover 4. With 18.7% of the coverage played as Cover 6, the only new real wrinkle is that the 49ers are up to 25% Cover 1 man. Seattle is literally a full-on zone coverage defense. With 34.9% of their coverage being Cover 3, 20.8% is Cover 4, and 24.8% is Cover 6, Seattle’s defense gets home with four and will sit in a suffocating zone if the opposition doesn’t have vertical threats or separators.
The 49ers will have to find the soft spots in the zone and protect up front to beat Seattle through the air on Sunday, but running the football will loosen the depth of the linebackers and safeties.
