That. Just. Happened.
After decades of heartbreak. After buzzer beaters going against the Hawkeyes. After the shot never falling for Iowa. That. Just. Happened. No dreaming, no pinching yourself – Iowa is headed back to the Sweet Sixteen after Alvaro Folgueiras finally broke the curse of Dr. Tom with the absolute dagger with 4.5 seconds remaining against reigning champs Florida.
While the win was exhilerating enough, the way the Hawkeyes won was perhaps one of the most impressive things we’ve seen
this season. Despite a massive size advantage for the Gators, who are known for their ability to pound the ball inside, stop opponents from getting into the paint and dominating the glass, Sunday night saw Iowa consistently get to the paint, play physical, and make Florida uncomfortable.
The Hawks shot better than 50% from the field for the game and outscored the Gators 32-30 in the paint while matching them with 27 total rebounds. It was pure effort and gameplan and it worked to perfect. Iowa led for the majority of the game and took a series of punches from Florida down the stretch, but bounced back with Folgueiras landing the last, knockout blow.
Chills.
By The Numbers
How Sweet It Is
So here’s the reward for slaying the No. 1 seed: we get Nebraska. Again. For the third time this season. Against former Hawkeye Pryce Sandfort. You genuinely cannot script this stuff.
This isn’t just another game. This is genuinely historic for both programs, and in completely different ways.
For Iowa: We haven’t been to the Sweet 16 since 1999, when Tom Davis’ final team — featuring J.R. Koch (Cooper’s dad), Dean Oliver, and Jess Settles — rode a 5-seed to the regional semis before falling to eventual national champion UConn. That’s 27 years of watching other programs cut down nets in March while Iowa was either home early or home entirely. REDACTED couldn’t get here. Todd Lickliter definitely couldn’t get here. Fran McCaffery, for all those top-25 rankings, couldn’t crack through. Ben McCollum did it in year one. A win Thursday would send Iowa to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1987. Let that one breathe.
For Nebraska: The Huskers have never — and I mean never — been to the Sweet 16 before this year. In nine all-time NCAA Tournament appearances, Nebraska had never won a single tournament game until Thursday when they beat Troy. Then they topped it by edging Vanderbilt 74-72 on a Braden Frager layup with 2.2 seconds left. Fred Hoiberg has built this program from the ground up, and the 28 wins this season are a program record. They started 20-0 and were ranked as high as No. 5 in the country. This is the best Nebraska basketball team ever, full stop. And while, yes, Ben McCollum has more D1 NCAA Tournament wins in two years of coaching at his level than the Huskers have in program history, this is going to be a BATTLE.
The Regular Season Series
Game 1 (Feb. 17, Iowa City): Iowa 57, Nebraska 52. Bennett Stirtz went off for 25 points and Cooper Koch chipped in 10 as Iowa handed then-No. 9 Nebraska just its fourth loss of the season. It was McCollum’s first signature win at Iowa. Defense dominated — both teams shot under 45%, and Iowa forced Nebraska into an uncharacteristically sloppy game.
Game 2 (March 8, Lincoln): Nebraska 84, Iowa 75 (OT). This one hurt. Iowa had four players in double figures — Koch (18), Kael Combs (18), Banks (12), Stirtz (11) — but Nebraska’s bench came alive. Reserve Cale Jacobsen scored 13 of his 15 points after halftime and hit the dagger three in overtime. Iowa actually forced OT on a Combs three with two seconds left, but ran out of gas in the extra frame as Nebraska outscored us 14-5.
Ironically, if Iowa wins this one, perhaps they don’t land on the 9-line and end up in this position to knock off the Gators and come back for round three against the Huskers. But alas, it’s 1-1. Rubber match. Sweet 16. Rivalry game. Both teams playing for history.
The Bottom Line
Nebraska opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and honestly? That feels about right. They’re the higher seed, they have the better record, and they have a guy who used to wear the black and gold and has been on an absolute tear. But Iowa has something Nebraska doesn’t: the experience of already pulling off a massive upset this tournament. This team has been forged in fire over the last 72 hours.
We split the regular season. We know their tendencies. They know ours. This is going to come down to execution, composure, and who makes the big plays in the final five minutes. I like our chances.
Here are the details for Thursday’s matchup in Houston.
Matchup: #9 Iowa Hawkeyes (23-12, 10-10) vs #4 Nebraska Cornhuskers (28-6, 15-5)
Date: Thursday, March 26
Tip Time: 6:30PM CT
TV: TBS/truTV
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
FanDuel Opening Spread: Nebraska -2.5, O/U 134.5 (Nebraska -140/Iowa +116)
Let’s keep dancing until the clock strikes midnight!
