Does the Colorado Rockies lineup currently hold the foundation for a playoff-contending team if the pitching were much better, or would it need a major makeover before they would be able to contend?
All previous Rockies playoff teams have been anchored by an MVP candidate or two:
- Larry Walker in 1995
- Matt Holliday in 2007
- Troy Tulowitzki in 2009
- Nolan Arenado in 2017 & 2018
It’s possible that one of the Rockies current crop of core young players hits their 90th-percentile outcome and turns into a superstar, but looking at the data right now, there isn’t anyone the low minors that has that sort
of ceiling.
But do they need an MVP candidate in order to field a competitive team?
First, we need to define what competitive means in the context of MLB.
Since the third wildcard spot was introduced for the 2022 season, the bar for making the playoffs has ranged from 81 wins (2026 Houston Astros) to 89 (2024 Atlanta Braves). Based on that, let’s say that a team with a real shot at fighting for a playoff spot in late September needs to be aiming for around 85 wins.
A team of entirely major league “replacement level” true talent players is estimated as one that would win 48 games.
So, to be a true playoff contending team, the sum of all of your players’ value would need to add up to roughly 37 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
The actual exercise of building a contending team would need to be much more nuanced and in-depth than this oversimplification, but for some quick back-of-napkin math, this will suffice.
With that goal in mind, let’s break down where on the Rockies roster those wins would need to come from
We need to take into account the fact that the pitching talent level in the organization is currently far behind that of the offense. We should not assume they will be able to go from one of the worst pitching teams in the league to that of an average playoff team anytime soon.
Instead, let’s be a bit more realistic and look at the lowest pitching fWAR totals of playoff bound teams in each season since the third wildcard spot was implemented:
- 2022: 12.9 Seattle Mariners
- 2023: 12.9 Arizona Diamondbacks
- 2024: 12.3 Milwaukee Brewers
- 2025: 11.3 Toronto Blue Jays
- 2026: 7.5 Houston Astros
Other than being further proof that the American League West was truly dreadful this season, the list above gives a decent indication about where the minimum bar is for the pitching staff of a potential playoff team.
Until the Rockies can field a pitching staff around the 12-13 WAR mark, it likely won’t matter how good the offense is. If they are able to achieve that mark, though, the lineup would need to reach 24-25 WAR for the team as a whole to have a legitimate chance at the playoffs.
Continuing the oversimplifications: The line for what qualifies an MVP candidate most years starts at around six WAR. All-Stars generally sit around four. Quality starters somewhere around two.
If the Rockies were able to fill all nine of their lineup spots with quality starters they would be sitting at 18 WAR from the lineup… well short of the 24-25 we’ve established as the goal. Without finding an MVP-candidate type of player, they’d need to both fill the lineup with quality starters and get three of them up into that clear All-Star tier.
How far away from that were they this past season?
The 2026 Rockies only had five players reach anywhere near the quality starter benchmark:
- Jake McCarthy at 2.7
- TJ Rumfield at 2.5
- Hunter Goodman at 2.5
- Kyle Karros at 2.0
- Cole Carrigg at 1.7
There were, however, many reasons to believe better days could be ahead for this lineup core.
- Goodman was worth 3.5 fWAR just a season ago.
- Carrigg was on pace for roughly four wins before slumping near the end of the season.
- In short stints for the Major League team, both Adael Amador and Connor Norby were on pace for at least quality starter-worthy full seasons.
- Before he got hurt Mickey Moniak was also on pace to be in that quality starter tier.
- Ezequiel Tovar appeared to break out of his extended slump in the final two months of the season.
- The Rockies still have some potentially impactful hitters at Triple-A including, most notably, Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP).
Without needing to wait for the core of the farm system (which currently resides in the low minors) to be Major-League ready, the Rockies could soon field a full lineup of two-ish win starters with a small handful of four-ish win All-Stars.
That is within the realm of possibility with the current core. However, it would require a lot of things to go right.
The best feature of the Rockies lineup is how many potentially decent options it now contains. The team doesn’t have all of its value concentrated in just one or two superstars. They have nearly a full starting nine of solid starter options.
That depth, however, means that there are fewer spots available to upgrade cheaply. It’s much harder to find an improvement on a two-win player than it is to find one for a “replacement level” one.
Tallying all of that up, if the Rockies upgraded their pitching sufficiently, and everything broke right on the offensive side, they could have a playoff caliber roster without finding or developing a superstar.
The margin for error on that path, however, is incredibly slim. They would need essentially every starter on the roster to perform up to expectations.
The more plausible route back to contention is to develop or acquire a star (or two) that can put up MVP worthy numbers and reduce pressure on every other portion of the roster.
That’s easier said then done.
Sadly, the players in the organization that most realistically have that sort of upside are all down in the lower levels of the minor leagues. The team will need wait to see if any of their high ceiling prospects at Single-A hit the higher end of their projections in order to start planning a stable contention window around them.
In the meantime, a realistic goal at the Major League level is probably just to prove that they can continue to raise the floor and to ensure that when/if they are able to find their next MVP candidate, they have sufficient depth surrounding them on the roster to capitalize on the opportunity.
Join the conversation!
Sign up for a user account and get:
- Fewer ads
- Create community posts
- Comment on articles, community posts
- Rec comments, community posts
- New, improved notifications system!
Download the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.
Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!
