In the seven-player trade that sent Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, a young 25-year-old named Randy Vásquez went from being the No. 13 prospect in the Yankees’ system to a backend starter in San Diego.
Now, after achieving surprisingly good results last season, Vásquez is projected to occupy the Padres’ fourth spot in the starting rotation. But what’s his ceiling? Is what we saw from him last year permanent or was it just a flash in the pan?
Early struggles seemed to stay
Vásquez began as a starter in the minor leagues for New
York, but saw minimal starting opportunities with the big-league club, being used more as a reliever who covered multiple innings. That system worked well in 2023, a year that saw him finish with a 2.87 ERA across 37 ⅔ innings.
However, when Vásquez transitioned to a full-time starting role in San Diego he struggled mightily. He had a career high WHIP in 2024 (1.51) and, when his pitches did find the zone, they were crushed (.304 opponent batting average).
The combination of these two factors made it seem like Vásquez would be more of a depth option in 2025 than a regular starter. But when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery in October ‘24, the Padres needed someone to fill innings. They gave the ball to Vásquez and, boy, did he outperform expectations.
A unicorn of a year
2025 was the best year of Vásquez’s career and it’s not even close. He finished with a 3.84 ERA in 26 starts and brought his WHIP down to 1.32 and opponent batting average to (a much more respectable) .247.
Plus, he offered something that San Diego desperately needed down the stretch: durability. Amidst injuries from Michael King and inconsistency from Dylan Cease, Vásquez managed to cover a career-high 133 ⅔ innings for the club.
Strangely enough, that didn’t stop Vásquez from being pulled from games early by former manager Mike Shildt. The club never seemed to trust him to get out of difficult situations, taking him out of more than a few games the moment he encountered trouble.
Hopefully he’ll get a longer leash from new skipper Craig Stammen than he did with Shildt.
So what’s the problem?
All of this sounds great. Why would Vásquez be unable to capitalize on his success? The problem is that his expected stats in ‘25 were all much worse than his actual ones (5.37 xERA compared to 3.84 ERA).
To put it simply, Vásquez was lucky. But he also wasn’t. He had a career-high ground ball percentage of 40.1%, making sure that any contact he allowed resulted in an easy out at first base.
Vásquez’s start to spring
Stammen has publicly stated that Vásquez has a small edge over the competition in the battle for back end rotation spots. But all of that is still dependent on Vásquez’s performance in Cactus League play.
Which brings us to Sunday’s start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the Padres 5-1 loss, Vásquez shined – only giving up a single to Will Smith in the first inning and a walk in the second. He also threw 23 of 31 pitches for strikes across eight batters faced.
Vásquez started to make the case that what he began to unlock in 2025 wasn’t just a fluke, it was building to something more. If he continues to capitalize on that this spring, we could see him blossom into a quality starter the Friars can depend on to go out and dominate each time he takes the mound.
