This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Buffalo Bills. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
What’s There Left to do but Tank?
Things fell quick, and fast. For many of weeks, I saw a Cleveland Browns team that had that formula of a good defense, but was plagued by bad field position and occasional untimely drives allowed. Special teams has been so far below average most weeks that it is ridiculous. And the offense, which has been bad all season,
gave a glimmer of hope with Shedeur Sanders taking the reigns. Ultimately, those things still combined for a loss more times than not, but at least there was reason to believe the team could pull off an upset.
Not anymore. Last week’s loss to the Bears was lifeless. The combination of a few more injuries, the offensive line being really out of sorts, and facing an actual good team, showed how this team has no shot of playing spoiler at this time of year. If it were earlier in the year, I think you could make the case that the defense holds Josh Allen in check for a decent portion of the game, and then you just hope for the best. Now, though, with the running threat that he and James Cook present, coupled with the fact that the secondary can’t stop anyone, the defense has fallen to below average in my estimation. The offensive line makes it so the ground game just can’t get any traction, and that makes things challenging for the passing game to really get going. And special teams is still horrific.
Why win now, anyway? Like last week, there are two things I’m still cheering for: Sanders to look good at quarterback, and Myles Garrett to get his sack record, however cheap the sacks may come. Those two elements alone aren’t going to beat a team like the Bills, and ultimately, better draft position is what helps the Browns from here on out.
Quick Hitters
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was asked whether injuries are the reason the defense has struggled the past two weeks:
“No, I mean everybody’s got injuries. We don’t look at that. I mean anybody’s on the field; we expect to do their job and be able to play. I think probably the biggest thing, like I said the last couple weeks, has been run game. We held San Fran in pretty good check with Christian McCaffrey. And then we gave up a couple big plays against the Titans. And then last week it wasn’t big plays, it was more the consistency of the run game. And we need to be able to shed blocks a little bit better. We didn’t tackle very well in the Chicago game, particularly out on the perimeter and we paid the price for it. So, when it’s all said and done, defenses are judged by your ability to tackle, your ability to stop drives, and a big part of that is stopping the run. So great challenge this week with Buffalo, they’re the best run offense in the NFL. So if we don’t get it corrected, we won’t stand a chance in this game.”
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees was asked about how to combat the Bills’ second-ranked pass defense:
Yeah, look, they do a lot of good things in coverage. They got veteran players in the back end that have been in that system a long time. Obviously head coach is a defensive back guy by trade and they take a lot of pride, in their ability to have a vary of coverage, to have disguise in their coverages and trying to keep you off balance. They do a really nice job there. They focus on coverage. I think we have to find a balance. We have to find the ability to run the ball. You know, it’s kind of been hot and cold for us throughout the year, and we got to really rely on that and find ways to get Q (Quinshon Judkins) going and allow our offense to be complementary like when you can run the ball well, it really opens up a lot of things and you can stay efficient and it keeps you in better situations on third down. So definitely a huge point of emphasis for us.”
Special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone talked about multiple kickoffs (with the Browns fielding) going for touchbacks to the 20 yard line last week:
“No, not necessarily. I mean, we want to try to field every single ball possible. I will say that there are times where if the ball doesn’t take…like say the ball does hit the ground and you don’t field it clean and it does end up rolling into the end zone, don’t make a bad play worse, because then you can still get the touchback at the 20. But ideally, we want to field every ball if possible and then obviously return it. It does affect the return when the ball gets to the ground, there’s more time that you have to sustain a block, there’s more space for the coverage player to be able to run around. So, the timing of the return doesn’t really match up if the ball is on the ground and you don’t get it clean. Now, if it hits the ground, you get it on, like, one hop, that’s just less time that it’s taking for the return, so everything impacts it. Now, the other thing that hurts, too, is like, when the ball does hit the ground, as a blocker, you don’t really know how long the ball’s on the ground for because you’re not watching the returner pick the ball up. So, as you go back, as you’re seeing the returner, ‘okay, the ball’s on the ground, my eyes go back to my guy – does he field it clean? Does he not?’ So, there’s some gray area there as a blocker, you don’t know how long. So, we give our guys some things that they use in their technique, so.”
Some other notes to look forward to:
- Harold Fannin had 11 targets two weeks ago and 14 targets last week. I’m all for him seeing the ball more, but it did appear as though the Bears keyed in on him more, believing he was the main person Sanders was looking for. It’s an indictment of this Browns receiving group in general. It’d be nice to tell Sanders to spread the ball to everyone, which I think he actually tries to do, but how can you be confident in it when a guy like Jerry Jeudy gifts a touchdown to the opposition last week?
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Chris Pokorny: “It should say something when my optimistic spirit for the season has burned out. We’ve seen this same song-and-dance one too many times.” Bills 31, Browns 10
Jared Mueller: “The Bills lost to the Falcons because of Atlanta’s run game and pass rush. The Browns have a good running back (but not good run blocking) and a great pass rush. Cleveland will give the Bills more trouble than many are expecting, creating a tasty little betting line, and Buffalo could be in position for a trap game.
All that said, the Bills are going to beat the Browns pretty handily.” Bills 24, Browns 13
Curtiss Brown: “I can’t really gauge whether or not the Bills are a legit Super Bowl contender or not. Make no mistake this team is good but the flaws are evident. Defensively, the unit is okay but flawed in some areas (mainly against the run). Offensively, the Bills generate a ton of big plays mainly due to quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook. Tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Khalil Shakir chips in from time to time.
Considering how the Bills were down 24-7 last week and were about to get ran out of Foxboro to come back and outscore the Pats 28-7 in the second half shows the mental fortitude this team has. Cleveland’s offense will struggle but I think the defense will find a way to make Allen work. Again, this Bills team has had questionable losses and they can be prone to it. But not this time because Josh Allen won’t allow it.” Bills 23, Browns 13
Barry Shuck: “A tune-up game for the Bills before the playoffs? Maybe play all their scrubs in the second half? The Browns should be using these final games to see what they have at the backup positions. Get good scouting on guys like Donovan McMillion, Zak Zinter, Jeremiah Byers, Easton Mascarenas-Arnold, Sam Webb, D’Angelo Ross, and both rookie QBs.” Bills 41, Browns 17
Ezweav: “Good guys got rolled by a decent-not-great Bears team last week. Bills might be a legit super bowl contender so this looks like a horror show on paper, which is probably how it will play out. Shedeur struggled but also did show some progress on things last week. But all it took was a sequence of a bad read/throw/pick followed immediately by a real (if lucky) FQB play by Chicago and the lights were turned all the way out. I’d expect about the same this week.
Defense will (once again) show up but this one won’t be close. Myles will get closer to the record but not quite break it.” Bills 28, Browns 7
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
