Last week, I shared how the hitting prospects in the system were doing. Wasn’t really planning for it to be a weeklong thing, it’s just that the Cardinals seem to have that many prospects worth monitoring. And I definitely didn’t cover everyone too. This week, I’ll cover the pitching prospects. Let’s get started.
Memphis
Quinn Mathews, LHP – 25 (VEB’s #4 prospect)
Stats: 8 GS, 28 K%, 18.2 BB%, 40.3 GB%, .250 BABIP, 5.23 ERA/6.59 FIP/5.28 xFIP
Maybe it’s because he got to Memphis so fast, but I am truly confused
as to how long it is taking Mathews to adjust to AAA. Maybe it’s the ball and he’s uniquely affected. Maybe it’s just that some pitchers need more development time at some level. Whatever it is, I really wish he could get his walk rate to a level where I would feel comfortable promoting him to the big leagues. 18% is a nonstarter and it’s not like his other stats are good right now either.
Tink Hence, RHP – 23 (VEB’s #10 prospect)
Stats: 8 G, 8.1 IP, 15.6 K%, 20 BB%, 57.1 GB%, .333 BABIP, 8.64 ERA/7.00 FIP/6.79 xFIP
I am suddenly not concerned about Mathews at all after seeing how Hence has pitched this year. He is not currently in Memphis to the best of my knowledge, being sent to the complex league to work out whatever exactly is affecting him right now. The talent is still there. Either the mechanics or the health isn’t however. Hopefully, it works out as well as the Joshua Baez experience.
Tekoah Roby, RHP – 24 (VEB’s #11 prospect)
Underwent Tommy John surgery on July 28th last season. If he pitches at all this year, I doubt he’ll have much time to do more than be a multi-inning relief pitcher.
Brycen Mautz, LHP – 24 (VEB’s #13 prospect)
Stats: 8 GS, 23.8 K%, 13.8 BB%, 40.4 GB%, .250 BABIP, 2.97 ERA/5.01 FIP/5.43 xFIP
Mautz hasn’t really had a walk problem before this season, so there really does seem to be something to having to adjust to pitching with a different ball. And of course harder competition. I’m not worried about Mautz only because he wasn’t really ever on my radar to pitch at the big league level this season except maybe a spot start later in the season. Would have surprised me more if he was immediately good in Memphis.
Ixan Henderson, LHP – 24 (VEB’s #17 prospect)
Henderson was shut down due to a flexor strain in his elbow and was slated to miss at least the first two months of the season. I haven’t heard any updates since spring training.
Hunter Dobbins, RHP – 26 (acquired in the Sonny Gray trade)
Stats: 7 GS, 33.1 IP, 16.3 K%, 8.5 BB%, 52.5 GB%, .290 BABIP, 3.78 ERA/4.66 FIP/5.06 xFIP
Dobbins is currently a bit of a confusing pitcher. His Memphis stats suggest we basically have another Andre Pallante waiting in the wings. Which… actually it’s support by his lone MLB start too. He got a ton of groundballs, but couldn’t locate the zone. Pallante, despite lacking control, walks less than you would think. I don’t think Dobbins is exactly kicking down the door with his performance, though it’s good enough that he’s the clear choice if you need a starter.
Richard Fitts, RHP – 26 (acquired in the Willson Contreras trade)
Stats: 3 GS, 15.1 IP, 17.7 K%, 9.7 BB%, 41.9 GB%, .295 BABIP, 1.76 ERA/3.46 FIP/5.04 xFIP
After three not especially impressive starts – yes I know ERA-wise it was – Fitts suffered an injury to his right lat and will miss the entire season.
Bruce Zimmermann, LHP – 31
Stats: 9 GS, 45.1 IP, 29.4 K%, 5.2 BB%, 41.6 GB%, .333 BABIP, 4.76 ERA/4.64+ FIP/3.65 xFIP
I understand that Zimmermann is this year’s version of Curtis Taylor. I kind of want to see what he’s like in relief though. His K/BB numbers are excellent and it’s clear he can’t start at the MLB level – he’s just too homer-prone. He allowed three homers in yesterday’s game so that FIP is going to get way worse. He had a 6:1 K/BB so that xFIP won’t be hit that badly. Anyway, he was a reliever for 7 total games at the MLB level and he had a 14:0 K/BB ratio. I see more potential in him than Jared Shuster.
Pete Hansen, LHP – 25
Stats: 5 GS, 19.2 IP, 20.5 K%, 9.1 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .328 BABIP, 5.49 ERA/3.06 FIP/4.39 xFIP
Hansen began the year injured, but has worked his way back to full heath at this point. If you focus on his batters faced, they have steadily increased to a season high of 22 in his most recent start, even though he only went 4.1 IP and he managed 5 innings in a previous start. It got momentarily derailed when he got rocked in a start where he lasted just 1.2 IP, hence the high ERA. It’s going pretty well for Hansen so far though. Would like to have another viable player to call up if needed in the Memphis rotation. It’s pretty much just Dobbins right now.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 24
Robberse underwent Tommy John surgery on May 14th of last season, so it’s entirely possible he could be starting rehab in the near future. Very far from being an MLB impact of course.
Hancel Rincon, RHP – 24
Stats: 10 G (3 GS), 20.2 IP, 27.6 K%, 11.3 BB%, 45.6 GB%, .396 BABIP, 6.23 ERA/5.80 FIP/4.19 xFIP
The Cardinals are kind of playing the in-between game with Rincon, where he’s not a starting pitcher, but he’s a little more than a reliever. He has started 3 games, but not been asked to face more than 15 batters in any appearance. I’m not sure if his innings are being limited or if he’s truly not a starter anymore, but I do find it a bit strange they seem to have given up on him as a starter.
Max Rajcic, RHP – 24
Stats: 15 G (1 GS), 28.2 K%, 7.3 BB%, 50 GB%, .288 BABIP, 1.95 ERA/3.41 FIP/3.69 xFIP
His lone start wasn’t a real start, Rajcic is a full-blown reliever. Just wanted to put that out there. Jake Wood has been a big advocate to consider promoting him to the big league and it’s easy enough to see why. Probably not future as a starter and excelling as a reliever at the moment.
Cade Winquest, RHP – 26
Stats: 3 G, 3 IP, 25 K%, 6.3 BB%, 37.5 GB%, .429 BABIP, 12.00 ERA/9.19 ERA/6.72 xFIP
Winquest somehow has three hit by pitches in his three innings of work which do factor into his overall stats. It’s a similar negative penalty to a walk. Despite a solid K%, he hasn’t actually had a good appearance in Memphis yet – he’s allowed a run in each one. He had 2 Ks and no walks or HBPs in one appearance, but also allowed a homer. He is also now injured with an undisclosed injury. So much for bullpen help here.
Ryan Murphy, RHP – 26
Stats (AA): 6 G, 8.2 IP, 37.5 K%, 0 BB%, 36.8 GB%, .222 BABIP, 3.12 ERA/3.95 FIP/3.00 xFIP
AAA: 5 G, 8 IP, 25.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .391 BABIP, 7.88 ERA/5.77 FIP/3.22 xFIP
For a minor league Rule 5 pickup, this is as good of a start as you can ask for. Yes, I know his ERA and FIP are ugly in Memphis. And it’s unfortunate he’s already allowed four homers this year. But he proved to be too good in AA pretty much immediately which is encouraging for a guy who spent last year pitching only rehab innings essentially.
Ryan Fernandez, RHP – 28
Stats: 12 G, 12.2 IP, 26 K%, 6 BB%, 41.2 GB%, .242 BABIP, 2.84 ERA/3.21 FIP/3.51 xFIP
Ryan Fernandez went from someone they couldn’t send down because he needed to work out his issues at the MLB level to a guy who can’t get called up even if he’s pitching well in Memphis (and a brief time at the MLB level) despite the Cardinals having a bad bullpen pretty quickly honestly. It is nice to have someone who I think deserves to get called up if a spot is needed at least.
Chris Roycroft, RHP – 29
Stats: 14 G, 15 IP, 15.1 K%, 6.8 BB%, 58.9 GB%, .421 BABIP, 7.88 ERA/3.05 FIP/4.55 xFIP
I mean… Roycroft has to be getting close to entering DFA territory if a 40 man spot is needed. In his last four appearances, including last night, he’s allowed 10 earned runs in 4.1 IP. He may have been the punching bag on May 9th because innings were needed and he faced 13 batters, which is 5 batters more than he’s faced in any other appearance. He allowed six runs in that appearance.
Luis Gastelum, RHP – 24
Stats: 18 G, 21.1 IP, 19.8 K%, 12.5 BB%, 44.6 GB%, .255 BABIP, 4.64 ERA/5.39 FIP/5.49 xFIP
People have suggested Gastelum for the MLB bullpen. He doesn’t appear that close to being MLB ready to me. It does not help his case that he is not on the 40 man roster. Typically if you are on the outside looking in with regards to the 40 man, you need to have great stats to get the call-up. He does not have that.
Skylar Hales, RHP – 24
Stats: 15 G, 16.2 IP, 24.1 K%, 16.9 BB%, 54.2 GB%, .348 BABIP, 5.94 ERA/5.76 FIP/4.81 xFIP
Good news. I can adjust many stats based upon how a pitcher pitched the night I’m writing this, but FIP and xFIP are not those stats. And Hales pitched a great inning yesterday and his FIP and xFIP will both drop. He struck out 2 in a scoreless innings with no walks and only a hit allowed. The bad news is that his BB% only dropped to 16.9%, so that’s going to need to fall a lot farther down before you consider a promotion.
Scott Blewett, RHP – 30
Stats: 15 G (GS), 24 IP, 29.4 K%, 9.8 BB%, 46.7 GB%, .362 BABIP, 4.13 ERA/4.02 FIP/3.64 xFIP
Okay we at least have two relief pitchers worth promoting if they are needed. Obviously Blewett is a bit more complicated, not being on the 40 man and not having any options if promoted. The team BABIP in Memphis must be .330 because I am seeing a lot of high BABIPs.
Springfield
Liam Doyle, LHP – 22 (VEB’s #2 prospect)
Stats: 7 GS, 25.1 IP, 29.7 K%, 8.1 BB%, 30.9 GB%, .394 BABIP, 6.04 ERA/3.72 FIP/4.28 xFIP
In Doyle’s last three starts, he has a 37 K% and 5.6 BB%, so I think he’s at the right level. His advanced stats for the whole season are solid, though nothing special and I would expect a higher GB% at some point. But yeah if you were concerned about his first few starts, his last few starts make me think he’ll see Memphis sooner rather than later.
Jurrangelo Cjintje, RHP – 23
Stats: 8 GS, 35.2 IP, 28 K%, 12.2 BB%, 38.7 GB%, .310 BABIP, 6.06 ERA/5.71 FIP/5.09 xFIP
Not the most impressive stats, and you can really see the value in not walking guys when comparing him and Doyle. Doyle doesn’t have a particularly low BB%, and yet he has a significantly lower xFIP than Cjintje pretty much just because of walks. Cjintje also has four HBPs and man I really wish HBPs wasn’t playing such a big role in some of these pitching lines, because a 12.2 BB% is high, but I found it weird how bad his xFIP was. If you add the HBPs to the walks, it’s a 14.6 BB/HBP% which is really bad. He did strike out 10 in his most recent appearance so clearly there’s a lot of potential here.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 25 (VEB’s #15 prospect)
Hjerpe underwent Tommy John surgery on April 15th last season. I haven’t seen any updates on his rehab, but he should probably pitch this season and I wouldn’t be opposed to seeing him in the MLB bullpen in September.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP – 24
Stats: 7 G (5 GS), 27.1 IP, 31.5 K%, 12.1 BB%, 44.6 GB%, .359 BABIP, 3.95 ERA/3.90 FIP/4.32 xFIP
Everyone raise your hand if you thought Lin was going to outpitch Cjintje after a month and half of play. Now stop lying because you guys did not vote him onto the top 20 prospect list this past season. He’s still walking too many batters, but at least he’s striking out nearly a third of hitters and his walks are in a better place than last season certainly. Let’s hope he keeps this up.
Mason Molina, LHP – 22
Stats: 7 GS, 29.2 IP, 29 K%, 12.2 BB%, 34.2 GB%, .324 BABIP, 3.94 ERA/3.75 FIP/4.74 xFIP
Molina is now in his third organization and at least two of them have been pretty aggressive in promoting Molina, which is interesting because he was a 7th round pick. He’s advanced like a Day One pick. He started 11 games at Low A for the Rangers before they promoted him, and 12 total games at High A before the Cardinals put him in AA. Because the dude can miss bats.
Braden Davis, LHP – 23
Stats: 8 GS, 31.2 IP, 24.7 K%, 13 BB%, 43.8 GB%, 7.18 ERA/5.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP
If I wrote this before yesterday’s start happened, there’d be a lot more reason for optimism about Davis, but he had a horrendous start yesterday, walking five and only striking out two while giving up 5 runs. His FIP is going to be a lot worse and so will his xFIP. So that one’s a bummer. I also felt they were particularly aggressive with Davis, as he made just 8 starts at High A last year.
Brandt Thompson, RHP – 23
Stats: 7 G (4 GS), 28.1 IP, 26.6 K%, 8.1 BB%, 47.4 GB%, .303 BABIP, 3.81 ERA/4.03 FIP/3.91 xFIP
I can’t be the only one whose first instinct on seeing this guy and his stats and thought: “Who’s this guy?” Honestly, there wasn’t much reason before this year to pay attention. He was a 17th rounder in 2024 and spent most of 2025 in A ball, only striking out 19.8% of hitters in Low A. He struck out 39% of batters in High A, but it was just 15 innings. But he also was promoted to Springfield as well, and had a 1.00 ERA, albeit with a 15% K rate. Clearly that 39% K rate told us more than I think I would have guessed at the time as well as his permanent promotion to Springfield. These are great stats. This is a late round gem, even if he ends up hitting a wall. He’s not even old for his level. Score one for the scouting department on this one.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 23
Stats: 11 G, 15.2 IP, 32.9 K%, 16.4 BB%, 51.4 GB%, .444 BABIP, 6.89 ERA/3.37 FIP/4.59 xFIP
Saladin appears to be a full-time reliever, which is a bummer after his 2024 season, but appears to be the right choice. He didn’t have a great 2025, he would have started being old for his level if they kept him at High A, so they both promoted him and moved him to the bullpen. He’s been wild. Hasn’t allowed a homer, but a crazy high BABIP. Yesterday he threw a scoreless inning with two strikeouts, so his FIP and xFIP will see some improvement. Just needs to control the walks.
Austin Love, RHP – 27
Stats: 13 G, 18 IP, 27.7 K%, 13.3 BB%, 48 GB%, .289 BABIP, 5.21 ERA/4.99 FIP/4.14 xFIP
Okay, well the Cardinals know more than me. News at eleven. Love has been pretty bad lately, and in fact gave up four runs in a relief appearance yesterday. I don’t know if he’s working on something, I don’t know if he’s fighting through an injury, but the Love I wanted to promote has exited the building.
Michael Watson, LHP – 24
Stats: 13 G, 18.1 IP, 37.5 K%, 12.5 BB%, 43.6 GB%, .343 BABIP, 4.42 ERA/5.08 FIP/3.54 xFIP
Most of you probably know this – hell most of you probably don’t pay attention to this – but when I list the age of a player, I am listing the age they are considered for that year. Which can lead to thinks like me calling Watson 24-years-old despite not turning 24 until June. If he was born a month later, he’d be considered 23. That’s just the way it works. Anyway, he actually allowed three of his four homers in his last appearance, which really dragged down his numbers.
Jack Findlay, LHP – 23
Stats (High A): 7 G, 6.2 IP, 30 K%, 6.7 BB%, 55.6 GB%, .389 BABIP, 4.05 ERA/2.56 FIP/3.80 xFIP
AA: 6 G, 8.2 IP, 25 K%, 9.4 BB%, 57.1 GB%, .238 BABIP, 2.08 ERA/2.91 FIP/4.08 xFIP
Oh hey I made a good call. In a post earlier this year, I said Love should be promoted to Memphis. That has not aged well, I also said Findlay should be promoted to Springfield. It happened less than a week later. And Findlay has rewarded that promotion so far.
Mason Burns, RHP – 24
Stats: 13 G, 19.1 IP, 29.1 K%, 12.7 BB%, 62.8 GB%, .209 BABIP, 1.40 ERA/4.39 FIP/3.86 xFIP
Again, let’s give a hand to the scouting department. Burns was drafted in the 14th round of the 2024 draft. Granted, if you told me a later round draft pick had made it to AA, I wouldn’t be that shocked if it was a reliever. Thompson is shocking to me because he’s a starting pitcher. That’s taking nothing away from Burns however, who has been a three true outcomes guy: strikeout, groundball, or walk. He’s allowed two homers in 19.1 IP and has been supremely unlucky to do so since 25% of his flyballs allowed have been homers (average is 12%)
Randal Clemente, RHP – 24
Stats: 10 G, 13.1 IP, 43.1 K%, 18.5 BB%, 44 GB%, .667 BABIP, 10.13 ERA/3.19 FIP/2.96 xFIP
Uhhhh, what in the hell? How is this line even possible? This is legitimately an unbelievable line. I don’t know what to do with this. He has allowed 24 balls in play, which is a crazy low number considering he’s thrown 13.1 IP. Out of those 24, 16 have been hits. Does he occasionally just want to make things hard and just yell “I’m throwing three fastballs right down the middle” because how can you be this unhittable and have a .667 BABIP against. I want to write 2,000 words about this.
Anyway, that’s a good place to end. Hunter Hayes does not have stats worth sharing but he did strike out four and walk none a 2.1 inning relief appearance yesterday, so hopefully that means he turned a corner.
