- Location: Storrs, CT
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 13th at 10 a.m. MT
- Television: CBS Sports Network
- Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
- Head-to-Head: Air Force and UConn are meeting for the first time.
In back to back weeks, Troy Calhoun and Air Force are going to face off against two of the most surprising programs of 2025. This Saturday, the Falcons will take on UConn, before returning to Colorado
Springs to face New Mexico the following week. There aren’t many coaches, if any, that have done a more impressive job than what Jim Mora (UConn) and Jason Eck (New Mexico) have accomplished already this season. Look ahead at Mountain West foe, New Mexico at your own peril though.
Awaiting the Falcons on the other side of the country is a Connecticut Huskies team that has quietly racked up seven wins, secured bowl eligibility and just one week ago handed an L to ACC Contenders, Duke. Their three losses have come by a combined total of 13 points— all three being in OT. This could be an undefeated UConn team, with just a few bounces going a different direction. As mentioned, this team is one of the best stories in this quickly concluding season.
Now, for the second week in a row, the Falcons have to try and figure out a way to stop one of the nations top offenses. In a spectacular performance from the defense, Air Force grounded San Jose State last week. There is no relief in Storrs though, as the Huskies present once again, one of the best passing attacks. One of the big differences between this week and last week is how Connecticut has protected the ball, despite throwing it all over the place.
UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano has been spectacular all year, compiling stats that would normally land you on a Heisman Trophy list if you play in the B1G, SEC, B12 or the former Pac-12. Unfortunately for Fagnano, his team doesn’t compete in a Conference, and he won’t get the benefit someone wearing a gold helmet, also competing as an Independent would receive, had they been able to accomplish what he has this year. But I digress.
Not only is the UConn offense racking up 37 points per game, but they are doing so with incredible efficiency. Fagnano in particular is averaging 284 yards per game, completing just under 70% of his passes while tossing 25 tudd’s on the year. I’ve not mentioned his interception numbers because he has yet to throw one. Arguably the most impressive season statistic for any individual player in the nation this year.
While not as efficient as Fagnano and this UConn offense, the San Jose State passing attack that Air Force faced last week was putting up as many passing yards as anyone. And in the most surprising Falcon performance of the season, the defense shut down the Spartans, and force three turnovers. It is that kind of spirited performance that will be required once again if they want to enjoy that long flight home from the East Coast.
Keys to an Air Force Victory
EXPLOIT THE UCONN RUN DEFENSE
If there is one thing that Air Force should be counted on for, it’s challenging the an opposing defenses discipline down after down. The Falcons are comfortable cashing in modest three-yard gain after three-yard gain. Although this year’s offense has shown a propensity for the big play under Liam Szarka’s operation. Despite the welcomed introduction of splash pass plays, this is a multiple option rushing attack. A relentless one.
There have been but two themes that have detailed the Air Force rushing attack this year— the occasional TFL or an ill-timed penalty. Penalties are 100% within their control. And while they are statistically one of the most discipline teams in the nation, they have taken a penalties in critical situations that put them behind the sticks, and they couldn’t recover from.
Beyond avoiding those out-of-character penalties, they have got to account for Byrum Parham (14.5 TFL’s and 10.5 sacks) and Oumar Diomande (8 TFL’s and 5 sacks). These two have reeked havok behind the line of scrimmage and account for 186 tackles between them. They cannot be left to clean-up plays, Air Force has got to get these guys “caught in the wash”. As a team, UConn has 68 tackles for loss on the season.
Now that we’ve provided plenty of cautionary tales, let’s not forget that this is a defense that surrenders 174 rush yards per game. That is good enough for 106th nationally. Avoid the negative plays, and there are yards to be had on ground.
NIGHTMARES OF RICE
You may have noticed that one of those three OT losses that the Huskies suffered was against the Rice Owls. Now, there are a lot of people that are quick to deem Rice another option team, which is fair. To a point. But nearly every team in the country runs some variety of option, just maybe not featuring a fullback, or at the repetition of 50 times per game. But it’s undeniable, Rice does operate a run heavy attack that is very multiple in nature, and they did so to the tune of 300 yards on 50 carries, for 37 points in their October win over UConn.
Not that Troy Calhoun needed a blueprint to create a gameplan against UConn. But there is some pretty compelling evidence that should make the Falcons optimistic about their ability to run the ball on Saturday. And that rushing attack will be crucial in not only generating scores, but keeping UConn and their sixth-year signal caller on the sideline for long periods of time.
STOP THE RUN
Last weeks performance from the Air Force defense was encouraging to say the least. They stood tall against a very good pass attack, something they haven’t been able to do against even the most modest of offenses. However, with the ability that UConn has shown to throw the ball with precision and care, you can’t be had by the run game because of the intense focus placed on stopping the pass.
The Huskies rushing numbers aren’t eye-popping. However, much of that may be attributed to the style of offense they run. And frankly, just how good they have been at throwing the ball. Camryn Edwards is quietly headed for a 1,000 rush yards on the season (866 rush yards currently), while he’s already reached the endzone 10 times. He’s their leading rusher with 87 yards per game, and Air Force isn’t careful, he could create a whole other world of problems for their defense.
It would be great if that Falcon secondary could turn in another performance like they did last week. But I think it’s ok to accept there will very likely be some plays surrendered to this pass attack. Don’t let the UConn offense rip off big rushing yards as well.
CONCLUSION
If you’ve been reading our coverage of Air Force, we’ve (like everyone) pointed out the defensive struggles. In particular in the secondary. However, in their wins over Wyoming and San Jose State, that same unit has been every bit as responsible for those victories as any other. Even in the loss to Army, the defense played well enough to win the game, despite the late game breakdowns. In reality, it was the offense that turned the ball over three times that really put them in that position. The following week, this team flipped the script, securing three turnovers of their own.
That is exactly the kind of performance that they need this week. It would be great to record the first interception of Joe Fagnano and the Huskies on the season. But an INT isn’t essential— a fumble or turnover on downs provides the same juice. One thing that cannot happen is for the offense to give that UConn attack extra possessions.
I love the big play potential that guys like Cade Harris, Quinn Smith, Bruin Fleishman and Jonah Dawson now pose in the pass game. But this feels like a game that they should be very particular about if and when they take those shots. Perhaps the mere threat should be enough, because the rushing attack that Air Force deploys should be more than suffice to generate points. If they were playing a proven rush defense, it’s a different story.
But this is a team that has been susceptible to lesser rushing attacks than Air Force. If Szarka and crew hold onto the ball and finish drives, I like their chances. The UConn passing attack worries me. And it should. But so did San Jose State, and the defense turned in far and away their best performance of the year.
Keep that rushing attack rolling behind coach Lobo’s diesels, and I think it does enough to neutralize that UConn offense purely by lack of opportunities. Another great match-up of contrasting playing styles awaits.
Give me Air Force in a tight one: 31-28.
