Well, that wasn’t a fun week. Let’s try again.
The Buffalo Bills suffered their first loss of the season Sunday night, and losing to the New England Patriots made it hurt a little more. Buffalo is still 3-1 and still very much in control of where this season goes, but the loss did change the rooting-interest game a bit.
For starters, the division tiebreaker no longer belongs to Buffalo. Hopefully, that is temporary. The Bills also dropped from the top spot in the AFC, with Kansas City moving into the No.
1 seed, Jacksonville sitting at No. 2, and Buffalo falling all the way to No. 3.
None of that is particularly concerning five games into a 17-game season, and all of it is reversible. But we have reached the point where simply rooting against the AFC East isn’t enough. Now we need some help knocking down division leaders and thinning out the teams hanging around the AFC playoff picture.
So, the rules are getting a little more complicated. Buffalo wins. The rest of the AFC East loses. AFC division leaders lose, and when two of them meet, we root against the team holding the better seed. Wild-card contenders lose, unless Buffalo needs them to strengthen its schedule — and the AFC East rule always wins that argument. After that, we’ll happily give some wins to the teams hanging around the bottom of the AFC and let them move a little farther away from the top of the draft.
And then there’s the NFC, where things are a little simpler. Buffalo opponents can win for strength of schedule — unless, of course, they’re playing the Bills. We’d also like to knock the NFC division leaders down a little when we can, while letting the teams at the bottom stay there and keep those premium draft picks on the other side of the league.
Got all that? Good. Let’s find Buffalo some help.
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AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
Root for: BILLS
We don’t need to overthink this one. There’s only ever one right answer here, but in case you need a reason, here you go: Buffalo has to take care of its own business before any of the help elsewhere really matters. The Bills get the Monday night stage this week, and a win gets them right back on track after last week’s loss. Go Bills!
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Root for: RAIDERS
Remember when we said the AFC East rule trumps everything else? Here is our first test. Buffalo plays Las Vegas next week, so a Raiders win would give the Bills a little strength-of-schedule boost. More importantly, though, New England just handed Buffalo its first loss and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. We don’t need the Patriots stacking wins while they have that in their pocket, so this one gives us double the benefit: Go Raiders.
Cleveland Browns (3-1) at New York Jets (1-3)
Root for: BROWNS
This one breaks another rule. Cleveland is sitting at the top of the AFC North, which would normally make the Browns exactly the kind of team we want knocked down. But the Jets are the Jets, they live in the AFC East, and the division rule comes first. We’ll deal with Cleveland later. For now, give New York another loss — although at this rate, it won’t be long before the Jets aren’t a factor (I know, I know, but for now we have to let the math do its work), and we will be trying to get them out of draft position. But not quite yet.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (0-4)
Root for: BENGALS
Cincinnati is hanging around the AFC playoff picture, while Miami is still looking for its first win. Normally that would make the Dolphins useful — give a basement team a win, hurt a potential wild-card contender, and call it a day. Nope. Miami is still in the AFC East, and we’re not volunteering to help anybody in the division. Let the Dolphins stay winless for another week.
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REST OF THE AFC
Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Root for: EAGLES
Here’s the big one. Jacksonville has jumped Buffalo in the AFC standings and currently owns the No. 2 seed, so knocking the Jaguars back down is exactly the kind of help we’re looking for now. This one doesn’t require any complicated tiebreaker math or competing rules. We need Jacksonville to lose. Fly Eagles, Fly.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Root for: FALCONS
Baltimore isn’t leading the AFC North right now, but the Ravens are sitting in a wild-card spot at 3-1 and are very much part of the AFC race. Buffalo will get its own shot at Baltimore later this season, but for now we can let an NFC team do some work for us. A Falcons win puts another loss on an AFC contender without giving anything to another AFC team. Yes, there’s the whole strength-of-schedule thing since Buffalo plays Baltimore later, but at some point we have to stop helping good AFC teams win games just because they’re on the Bills’ schedule.
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Root for: STEELERS
Now we get into the games where somebody in the AFC has to win. Neither team currently holds a playoff spot, but Indianapolis is in the AFC South chasing Jacksonville, while Pittsburgh is trying to keep pace in the North. Buffalo already beat Pittsburgh, so if one of these teams has to move to 3-2, we might as well make it the one that helps the Bills’ strength of victory.
Denver Broncos (2-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)
Root for: BRONCOS
Normally we’d be all aboard the 0-4 Chargers finally winning one and moving themselves away from the top of the draft. But Denver is on Buffalo’s schedule, which gives us a reason to keep building the Broncos’ record before the Bills see them later this season. Strength of schedule wins this argument. Go Broncos.
Houston Texans (0-4) at Tennessee Titans (0-4)
Root for: TEXANS
We have been begging Houston to do something for weeks, so how about starting here? The Bills already have a win over the Texans, which means every Houston win from here makes that victory a little more valuable for strength of victory. The fact that it would also pull the Texans away from the top of the draft is just a bonus. Come on, Houston. Surely you can beat somebody.
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NFC
Detroit Lions (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Root for: LIONS
Buffalo already has a win over Detroit, so every Lions win from here makes that victory a little more valuable. That’s enough to make this an easy choice. The Cardinals can keep doing their thing at the bottom of the NFC while Detroit gives Buffalo a little strength-of-victory help.
Chicago Bears (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Root for: BEARS
Chicago is on Buffalo’s schedule later this season, so we’re sticking with the Bears here. Sure, they’re 3-1 and hanging around near the top of the NFC North, but that doesn’t matter nearly as much to Buffalo as a stronger schedule could when the AFC playoff tiebreakers start coming into play. We’ll worry about where Chicago sits in the NFC another time. For now, Bear Down.
San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Root for: SEAHAWKS
This is exactly what our new NFC rules were made for. San Francisco is undefeated and sitting atop the NFC West, so let’s knock the 49ers down a little. Seattle isn’t exactly a basement dweller at 3-1, but somebody has to win this thing. Give the division leader a loss and tighten up the NFC West.
Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Root for: SAINTS
Here’s where two of our NFC rules run into each other. We’d be perfectly happy leaving New Orleans near the bottom and keeping premium draft picks in the NFC, but Minnesota is 4-0 and leading the NFC North. Knocking down the division leader wins out. Give the Vikings their first loss, and we’ll worry about the Saints’ draft position another week. BONUS HINT: Keeping NFC division leaders’ records below their AFC counterparts also helps keep the better draft picks on the other side of the league — and out of the hands of teams like Kansas City and Baltimore. See? There is a method to this madness.
New York Giants (3-1) at Washington Commanders (1-3)
Root for: COMMANDERS
Same problem, same answer. We’d normally be fine letting a 1-3 NFC team keep losing, but the Giants are leading the NFC East. The first priority is knocking down the division leader, so Washington gets our support this week. Hopefully the Commanders can go right back to losing afterward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Root for: COWBOYS
Here’s where our draft-position rule takes over. Tampa Bay is 0-4, and if they’re going to keep losing, we’re perfectly content to let one of the NFC teams occupy a prime spot in next year’s draft. Dallas isn’t leading its division and isn’t particularly important to Buffalo right now, so let the Buccaneers stay right where they are.
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ON A BYE
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0), Carolina Panthers (2-2)
Unfortunately, the AFC’s No. 1 seed gets to sit this one out, so there is no help coming from the Chiefs’ opponent this week. Buffalo can take care of its own business and hope to make up some ground elsewhere in the AFC, but Kansas City is guaranteed to leave Week 5 with that 4-0 record intact.
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We aren’t quite ready to start building our dream AFC standings just yet. Give it a few more weeks, and we’ll start keeping track of exactly how much damage a perfect Sunday could do to the teams around Buffalo.
For now, the assignment is simpler. The Bills need to get back in the win column Monday night, and after last week, a little help around the AFC wouldn’t hurt. Jacksonville can give back that No. 2 spot, New England can give back the division tiebreaker advantage, and a few other AFC contenders can pick up losses along the way.
Last week wasn’t much fun. Let’s see if Week 5 can be a little more cooperative.
