Safe to say, this isn’t the year either of these teams wanted. Before the baseball season began, MLB.com considered Tampa Bay a “strong contender” with playoff aspirations; the Orioles they put in the category of “World Series or bust.” Unfortunately, as of last week, both teams were eliminated from the playoffs.
The Rays ended June just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL East, but after a dreadful July in which they went 7-18, for a .280 win percentage, they were never higher than fourth in the division
again.
Tampa Bay is kind of confounding in its badness this year: they’re a Top 10 pitching staff, and solidly average in hitting. (By comparison, the Orioles are around 21st in offensive metrics and 24th in pitching.) The likely explanation for the Rays’ problems is bullpen trouble: the team has had particularly bad luck in one-run games.
The Rays were sellers at the deadline, although complete teardowns are nothing new for this team: they dealt away infielder José Caballero, veteran catcher Danny Jansen, and starter Zack Littell, among other moves. There are still many recognizable faces, including Yandy Díaz, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and University of Maryland alum Brandon Lowe.
Truly, the most interesting thing going on for either club right now is that just this week, it was announced that Tampa Bay is being sold to an ownership group led by real estate developer Patrick Zalupski for approximately $1.7 billion. Current owner Stu Sternberg who will retain a minority stake. The new regime has a lot of work to do, what with a potential change in city in the works, a new stadium to build, and probably a need to take Tampa Bay out of the bottom-five in team payroll, where it usually ends up.
These two teams are 5-5 against each other. We’re just playing for pride at this point, but … isn’t that worth something?
Game 1: Tuesday, July 23rd, 6:35 pm – MASN2
Dean Kremer (4.39 ERA, 136 K) vs Ryan Pepiot (3.77 ERA, 164 K)
Dean Kremer has put together another season in which durability is a calling card, along with inconsistency and just so-so overall metrics. His stated goal, pre-season, was to give his team 200 innings, and at 164 currently, he won’t hit that—but longevity is not to be sneezed at in this era of pitching. Of 29 starts, Kremer’s had 13 in which he’s allowed four or more runs. He’s also pitched four shutouts of seven innings. Overall, it works out to a 92 ERA+, slightly below average.
The 28-year-old Ryan Pepiot started his career with the Dodgers before coming over to Tampa Bay in a package for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. Thus far, in two seasons he’s got a 3.70 ERA and 110 ERA+ for his new club, less flashy numbers than he posted as a young righthander with LA. Pepiot has faced the Orioles three times this season: he was knocked out in the second inning of an eventual 22-8 Orioles win in June, pitched eight one-run innings with 11 strikeouts that same month, and allowed five runs in six innings in an eventual 5-3 Orioles win.
Game 2: Wednesday, July 24th, 6:35 pm – MASN 2
Shane Baz (4.99 ERA, 173 K) vs Tyler Wells (2.04 ERA, 14 K)
Here are two guys who have both missed a lot of time with elbow injuries. Shane Baz, the 26-year-old righty, has had two elbow surgeries in the last two years, missing 727 days between starts before returning to the mound last July. Baz’s numbers haven’t been great this season: opponents are OPSing .769 against the righty. But he’s been healthy, able to give his team 30 starts.
In the same boat, although much more recently activated, is Tyler Wells. The 6’8” righty also has two reconstructive surgeries under his belt already. But he’s been sparkling in his three starts since a return from UCL surgery on Sept. 2, allowing just four runs in 17.2 innings.
Game 3: Thursday, July 25th, 1:05 pm – MASN2
Drew Rasmussen (2.80 ERA, 124 K) vs Cade Povich (5.06 ERA, 114 K)
Drew Rasmussen is another pitcher who’s missed a lot of time in the last two years. However, unlike Baz he’s been stellar in his return. In 30 starts this year, Rasmussen’s got an impressive 2.80 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. He’s not racking up the K’s (124 in 147 innings), but he is keeping hitters off the bases and limiting hard contact.
As for Cade Povich, unfortunately, the youngster has done nothing to dispel the perception that he’s erratic and inconsistent. Over his last three starts the lefty has allowed four runs to San Diego, two runs in 5.2 innings against a bad Pittsburgh offense, and three runs in five innings against the Yankees. Actually, the real trouble is, his ERA has been pretty consistent, month-to-month: it’s ranged from 4.61 to 5.48. But not consistent in a good way.
