It’s not often that you see the No. 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs as an underdog. That’s what Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos were for much of the week.
That shows the respect that Josh Allen has earned in this league. The lazy take is to say that Allen will lose any credibility if the Buffalo Bills don’t win Super Bowl LX because Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow don’t stand in his way. The truth is, this is the worst version of the Bills that Allen has had in the playoffs.
These are two evenly matched teams. They rank 7th and 8th in DVOA. Denver gets the job done defensively, while the Bills lean on their offense. During the second half of the season, it’s been the Broncos’ offense that has thrived, while the defense has taken a step back. But the Broncos should be able to cover the short-handed Bills receiving group.
I think Sean Payton will have some tricks up his sleeve out of the bye week and find a way to manufacture big plays, while the Broncos’ running backs benefit from a soft rush defense.
Denver got embarrassed in the playoffs last year by Buffalo, 31-7. I like the Broncos to get their revenge this afternoon.
Broncos 24, Bills 20.
