Yesterday, Mike Homes published an article about Michigan State’s defensive struggles, particularly toward the tail end of the season. Certainly, that article showed a concerning trend and could be enough to make Spartan fans feel pessimistic about our chances of making a run in this year’s tournament. Well, today I am here to try offering some reasons for optimism. I should tell you up front, my arguments are not going to be steeped in data and research like yesterday’s column; Mike is much smarter
than I am. Instead, I am digging deep for reasons to believe more with your heart than your head.
First of all, let me just begin with some more people who are smarter than me and know much more about college basketball. I have scoured the internet for “expert” picks and have found a number of journalists and TV personalities who are picking our Spartans to make it to Indianapolis. Here are some of those:
- Jay Bilas (ESPN)
- Seth Greenberg (ESPN) – Although this one feels like the worst-case scenario
- David Cobb (CBS Sports)
- Blake Toppmeyer & Matt Glenesk (USA Today)
Now let’s get into some actual reasons to believe.
New Opponents
Going back to Mike’s article, yes, MSU’s performance on defense has diminished recently. That said, a lot of that came in games we were playing against familiar opponents. Our final three regular season games and our BTT game were all against teams we have played before. And every Big Ten team is keeping an eye on every other Big Ten team to scout future games. So the coaches in the Big Ten may have found something. But go back and look at the charts in Mike’s article. Those trend lines for our opponents are buoyed by two areas – that four-game lull in February where we lost three of four, and the final three games overall. Beyond that, the majority of the data points fall below or, at worst, just above the trend line.
Now MSU is going to play teams that have not had as much time to scout us, first with North Dakota State and then, if we get a win against the Bison, either Louisville or South Florida. Yes, those teams have all week to prep for a game against the Spartans, but the opposite is also true. And who are you going to trust most to get a team ready for an unfamiliar foe between Tom Izzo, David Richman (NDSU), Pat Kelsey (Louisville), Bryan Hodgson (South Florida)? That’s what I thought.
Rest
There has been much concern expressed in recent TOC comment sections regarding Jordan Scott hitting a freshman wall. Cam Ward, the other freshman, also appears to have been struggling with his inside game, though his scoring fluctuations have been a season-long phenomenon. By the time the Spartans tip off on Thursday, they will have only played in one game over an 11-day span. The regular season finale was on March 8 and the Big Ten Tournament appearance was on March 13. Let’s hope that the team’s trainers, physical therapists, doctors, and nutritionists have all been hard at work getting everyone refreshed and rejuvenated and just overall feeling 100% in order to return this team to the form we saw them in earlier in the season.
Battle-Tested
The Big Ten is sending 9 teams to the Big Dance, 2nd most only to the SEC’s 10. This season, MSU played those other 8 teams in ten games, compiling a 5-5 record against them. In non-conference games, MSU played an additional 4 teams who are tourney-bound in Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Duke. MSU was an impressive 3-1 in those games.
Overall, MSU was 2-1 in games against teams that won their conference tournaments. We defeated Purdue in their place and beat eventual SEC Tourney winner Arkansas at the Breslin. Only Duke, who of course is in our region, bested the Spartans.
Speaking of Duke, there have been three previous times when MSU and the Blue Devils have faced off twice in the same season, with the second game obviously coming in the Tournament. The first was the 1998-99 season, Tom Izzo’s first Final Four appearance; Duke won both matchups. Next was the 2004-05 campaign where MSU fell to Duke in Durham before knocking them off in the Sweet 16. Most recently, was 2014-15; that year, Duke won both contests, first in the Champions Classic and then in the Final Four with both those games being played in Indianapolis. In all three of those previous examples, MSU made the Final Four. So if we do see Duke a 2nd time this year, hopefully the pattern holds and we can pick up the win in the rematch. Hey, I told you there was not going to be much science in this article.
Of 32 games played so far this year, MSU faced off against 14 tourney-bound opponents and came away with 8 wins in those games. If you are a fan of the Quadrants metric, MSU was 9-6 in Q1 games, 5-1 in Q2, and a perfect 11-0 against Q3 and Q4. The Spartans are 16th nationally in strength of schedule. We have faced off against two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds (if you include the UConn exhibition), and were competitive in all of those games. This team should be ready for any opponent the tournament may throw our way.
Experience
Sure, the top of the NBA Draft is always littered with freshmen. But the NCAA Tournament tends to skew toward more experienced teams. And that is something that Tom Izzo’s team has plenty of this year. Seniors Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper are the epitome of everything Coach Izzo believes in – four-year players who stayed with one program and improved each year. Our starters on the interior have gotten better, stronger, and more efficient with each season in a Spartans uniform. They are not perfect and may not be headed for the NBA, but they are built to handle the rigors of this tournament.
Junior Coen Carr, despite his inconsistencies, is certainly a player every coach and every player in the country is aware of. His highlight dunks can come in bunches if you take your eyes off him for even a split second and have the ability to fire up his teammates, bringing an already good team to an even higher ceiling.
Most importantly is Jeremy Fears Jr. The 3rd-year redshirt sophomore led the NCAA in assists this year, finishing at 9.2 and just ahead of conference foe Braden Smith’s 9.1. In addition to being the country’s greatest distributor, Fears also turned into a legitimate scorer this year, as well. After posting scoring averages of 3.5 and 7.2 PPG his first two seasons, the PG recorded 15.7 this year. That number could have been higher if it weren’t for some early-season single-digit performances. Since December 20, he has scored above ten in every game and has gone past 20 points in 9 games including the last four. He is the straw that stirs this drink and is capable of taking over any game with both his scoring and his ball distribution.
After a trip to the Elite 8 last year, this team is looking to take at least one more step. The skill, talent, experience, leadership, and coaching are certainly all there. The question is if they can put it all together and do that consistently for 40 minutes.
In any game, the outcome can come down to who caught fire from deep or who won the turnover/points off turnover battle. We have seen many opponents do the first against us, so hopefully the Spartans made the adjustments needed to make sure another occurrence like our UCLA loss does not repeat itself. The other categories – turnovers, fast break points, rebounding – have been where MSU has consistently been the better team and been the reason we have played so well this year (when we have played well). We are just over 48 hours away from the first round. Right now, my green glass is not just half-full; it is full. Hope yours is too after reading this article.
