Game five of the Air Force season is at our doorstep, and this weeks matchup features the Northern Illinois Huskies. NIU had many memorable seasons while competing in the MAC, featuring some dynamic quarterbacks, including Heisman Finalist Jordan Lynch. Those successful season seem a distant memory. The Huskies now find themselves in very uncharted territories, as first time members in the Mountain West Conference.
The start of the 2026 season has been unkind to first year head coach Bob Harley, who
finds his team in an 0-4 hole to start the year. The schedule hasn’t done the Huskies any favors, with losses to Iowa, Arizona, Illinois State and Georgia State. It’s of no consolation to NIU, but really the only bad loss on their resume is a 21 point loss to Georgia State. Don’t be fooled by the FCS loss to Illinois State, this is a team that was a few short yards from winning the FCS National Championship last year. And one of the teams they disposed of enroute to the title game was the mighty Bison of North Dakota State.
Air Force is entering this game from a little different path. The Falcons finally got back to their winning ways over bitter rivals from the Naval Academy last week. And the week prior saw a thrilling, albeit concerning double overtime victory over Nevada. Whilst resulting in two wins, each of those contests left Troy Calhoun’s squad with a variety of concerns as they enter back into Conference play.
Sunk Navy (14-9)
You can’t overstate how important a win against Navy was for this Air Force team. They found themselves eliminated from contention for the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy far too early in the season the previous two years, while the CiC has eluded them broadly since 2022. For a team that once dominated this series dating back to 1972, the Falcons have really fallen behind their Military Brethren Army and Navy. Air Force once led the series 18 – 12 (Navy) – 6 (Army) up to 2011.
They have since won the series outright just twice in the last decade. And just three times since 2011. Ask anyone associated with this proud round-robin rivalry and they will tell you that is unacceptable. They’ve overcome the first hurdle to getting things back on track in this series, though the largest hurdle looms ahead in West Point. We will take a closer look at Army in November.
Collecting a win against Navy doesn’t do anything for their Mountain West aspirations, but it does wonders for this team otherwise. The defense which had looked shaky at best the previous two weeks was the main reason Air Force got back in the win column versus the Midshipmen. Granted, this was not the same superstar decorated offense Navy had the previous years, it was still a great showing from the defensive unit. If nothing else, you leave that game affirmed of what should have been suspected; Air Force has elite linebacker play. And believe me, as a Penn State graduate that has seen the highest of highs at the position, to the lowest of lows last week, the Falcon linebackers are playing as good as any in the country. Blake Fletcher is that due.
Next Man Up
It wasn’t all roses in Colorado Springs after beating Navy. Sometimes a big win comes at an equally large cost. In this case, it was do-it-all quarterback Liam Szarka. Late in the fourth quarter Szarka limped off the field for a play, but went right back in. Unfortunately his return to the game was not a positive indicator of health. It was since announced that the Mountain West’s leader in rush yards per game, and touchdowns will miss the remainder of the season with a “lower leg injury”. This is a devastating blow to say the least.
As unfortunate as this circumstance is, it’s one the Falcon’s have found themselves in many times over again. Rarely does an Air Force quarterback make it through a season unscathed. For Szarka, this is the second time in as many years he has suffered a season ending injury. Just brutal for one of college footballs more dynamic dual threat quarterbacks.
If you have been watching Air Force play, then you know Troy Calhoun and OC Mike Thiessen have been preparing for such a scenario. Sophomore quarterback Evan Medders has seen playing time in meaningful situations every week. Much of this wasn’t just due to injury potential, but because of the ability Medders has displayed. The Falcon offense is now under his operation. You’ll also see a healthy dose of Kemper Hodges as well I’m sure. He’s been getting carries from under center and fullback all year. I suspect they’ll lean a little more on the near 250 pound thumper as Medders eases into the full playbook.
Quarterback isn’t the only position on the depth chart being taxed. Cornerback, a position already exposed, is working without Ehimen Oyamendan, who did not play against Navy and is out this week, as well as Jordan Elie-Stuart who doesn’t appear available for the trip to DeKalb. Look for Mikhail Seiken to play opposite Korey Johnson and collect a majority of snaps. Seiken has a lot of experience starting multiple times in the past two seasons, but Oyamendan and Stuart are guys that Troy Calhoun was looking at to bolster the secondaries play in coverage.
First Time Matchup
For the second time this year, Air Force will be a Mountain West newcomers greeter. In week two, the Falcons hosted North Dakota State in a losing effort. Now, they will travel to DeKalb for a matchup with the Northern Illinois Huskies. While the road to Conference play hasn’t been a kind one for NIU, the slate of competition as mentioned earlier, hasn’t helped matters. Which leads to a general statement I am about to make.
The Huskies are currently bottom dwellers in nearly all statistical categories. Again, much of that is thanks to playing some very good teams. However, they do feature the conferences leader in receptions, DeAree Rogers (31 catches/251 yards/2 touchdowns). They also feature Mountain West co-leader in interceptions, in cornerback Yassine Falke. One of the many transfers on Bob Harley’s roster.
Keeping with the secondaries, both team’s leader sacker comes by way of a defensive back. Max Mustell leads Air Force with just two sacks, as does Avery Jones for Northern Illinois. This is something we mentioned numerous times this year, questioning how would the Falcons generate pressure on the opposing offense. The supplemental TFL from a defensive back is nice, but they need more from the front seven. In particular more disruption from the defensive line. The same should be remarked of the Huskies.
More concerning for NIU has to be the offense. Averaging just under 14 points per game, it’s going to be incredibly difficult to win games in any conference. Taron “Tyger” Dickens averages over 200 yard per game through the air, but has just three touchdowns on the year compared to one interception. They still feature the Mountain West’s third ranked passing offense though, which is going against what I would still deem an in-progress pass defense for Air Force. This matchup will be key in deciding the outcome of this game. The Falcons feature multiple standout safeties, but how will the corners hold up when isolated in coverage? NIU has been anemic in the run game (10th in the MWC), don’t expect Fletcher, Dailey and crew to make things any easier. That really puts the Northern Illinois pass game vs. the Air Force secondary in the spotlight.
Offensively, look for a relentless ground attack from Air Force. To date, I don’t feel like the supporting cast around Szarka have been fully leveraged, especially the fullbacks. Owen Allen in particular should see a lot more carries going forward. What will be very interesting is seeing how aggressive they are allowing Medders to throw the ball. The big play threat through the air takes the Falcon offense to another level. Jonah Dawson has been a spark plug every time the ball heads in his direction, and they were working Kibbee into the gameplan at tight end. It will be important to have some of those elements still in play for this offense to flourish.
Welcome to the Mountain West Northern Illinois, make the most of your 10 minutes of ball posession.
