Holy scheiße! The Detroit Lions’ first overseas game in over a decade, dating back to the early Jim Caldwell era, is finally here, and the Motor City militia is ready to make some noise in Munich, Germany.
While it’s still one of the more compelling European games this season, the buildup is different than expected. The Lions are coming off an emotional week that ended in a low-scoring affair in Miami, while the Patriots were bombarded by Green Bay at home. New England’s season has had its ups and downs,
highlighted by a road win in Buffalo, but the team hasn’t found its mojo since the Super Bowl, aside from its head coach this offseason.
Interestingly, the game pits two tough-minded, former-player, CEO-type head coaches against each other. The Lions are looking to extend their four-game winning streak, thanks in large part to their defensive improvements, with their sights set on containing reigning MVP runner-up Drake Maye. They’ll also hope for a much better offensive performance than last time they faced the Patriots, when Bailey Zappe was the quarterback on the other side of the ball, and they got skunked.
So tap the keg and crack a few eggs, as this week’s preview will examine six key stats and matchups Detroit needs to handle to keep the winning streak train on the tracks and let you enjoy your Sunday morning kickoff.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
Pop Goes The Weasel
The Patriots’ offense heads to Germany with a bit of a MASH unit, as they’ll be down to backup offensive guards Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor. Sending my best regards to those two as they face Alim McNeill and Tyleik Williams. They’ll also be without skill-position players Romeo Doubs and TreVeyon Henderson, while A.J. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson (161 rushing yards vs. the Lions in 2021) are questionable.
Lions fans know not to take a team lightly, even one ravaged by injuries; they only need to look back at Carolina scoring 32 points against them while missing numerous key offensive pieces. Detroit’s defense will still need to shut down the areas opposing offenses plan to attack.
Following Maye’s early-season struggles, which included a 58.6 passer rating, six interceptions, and nine sacks in the first three weeks, he has leaned into fourth-year slot receiver DeMario “Pop” Douglas, despite injuries to Brown and Doubs. Since Week 5, Douglas has recorded 22 receptions for 352 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. His receiving yards rank 11th among all players, just two yards fewer than Amon-Ra St. Brown in that span, while his four touchdowns are tied for third. Douglas is a career 11-yards-per-reception player, but he’s averaging 16 yards per reception over that stretch. Douglas has spent a league-leading 81.3% of his snaps in the slot during that span, with the next-closest player at just 72.5%. His 11 receiving first downs from the slot also lead the league over that stretch.
Stopping Douglas will be no easy task for the Lions’ improving defense, as Detroit allows a league-worst +0.59 EPA/pass on targets to the slot. The Lions have faced 101 slot targets (2nd), allowing 8.7 yards/pass (24th), a 10.7-yard average depth of target (30th), seven passing touchdowns (t-28th), and a 60.2% passing success rate on throws to the slot. They’ve also allowed the second-fastest average time to throw on those passes at just 2.45 seconds, nullifying much of the disruption that Aidan Hutchinson, McNeill, and any blitzes can generate.
Stopping Pop Douglas will require a dedicated effort in Kelvin Sheppard’s game plan, with Roger McCreary likely seeing plenty of time trying to burst his bubble, along with help from the linebackers and safeties. Perhaps Brian Branch will see some dedicated time against the small, shifty, but explosive Douglas. If the Lions can keep Pop bottled up in Munich, they’ll go a long way toward cutting off the Patriots’ offensive tap.
The Munich Meat Grinder
The last time the Patriots and Lions faced off, early in Dan Campbell’s second season and potentially a low point of his coaching tenure in Detroit before the team grabbed the rope and started climbing, Rhamondre Stevenson was a problem, particularly running up the middle. He recorded 11 carries for 86 rushing yards (7.8 yards per carry), including a startling 7.8 yards before contact per carry. However, things might be a little different this time around. Whether it’s Stevenson or the more diminutive Corey Kiner attempting to run up the middle against the Lions’ defense, with the aforementioned McNeill and Williams, especially without beefy guards Mike Onwenu and Alijah Vera-Tucker, they might get pounded into schnitzel.
Since Week 5, the Detroit Lions’ defense has allowed a league-best 23.3% rushing success rate on runs up the middle. That also includes just three first downs and zero rushing touchdowns allowed on 30 rushing attempts up the middle. Much like airplanes in America, they’re grounding rushing attacks up the middle.
The Patriots’ offense prefers to run up the gut, with the third-most such carries (96) this season. However, they rank outside the top 10 in yards per rushing attempt (4.1) and just 19th in both EPA/rush (-0.093) and rushing success rate (39.6%). While they rely heavily on running between the tackles, they haven’t been overly successful.
If the Lions can close down the Autobahn up the middle, they’ll force Maye to take the scenic route on third down, where Detroit’s pass rush will be waiting.
The Bavarian Bootleg
Often, when the Patriots run up the middle, they operate from under center, and their 41.5% under-center rate ranks 12th in the league. However, they struggle when Maye is crouched behind second-year pivot Jared Wilson, ranking 27th in the NFL with -0.173 EPA/play from under center. It doesn’t get much better when they use play-action from under center, either.
This season, the Patriots’ under-center play-action passing metrics have been a little startling, as they’re averaging -0.359 EPA/dropback (30th), a 12.7% turnover rate (32nd), a 61.2% completion percentage (22nd), and a 43.6% pressure rate (20th) — despite allowing only one sack.
Longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels hasn’t been able to help unlock Drake Maye and the under-center play-action passing attack, and that’s music to Lions fans’ ears as Detroit continues to adjust to a linebacker corps of Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez (possibly getting more Mike linebacker reps), and Trevor Nowaske, while also acclimating Brian Branch and newly acquired Andre Cisco into the equation. One of those Lions defenders coming up with a turnover, given that Maye has been handing out footballs like beer steins at Oktoberfest with seven turnovers on just 55 under-center play-action dropbacks, would be a welcome gift for Detroit’s overseas success.
Maye-day Parade
Where the Patriots’ offense has been buttering its bread, err, putting the bratwurst in its bun, has been from shotgun, particularly with 11-personnel.
Whether it’s operating from the ‘gun and airing it out to the likes of DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism II, Mack Hollins, and Hunter Henry, or Eli Raridon, Maye has been in an aggressive zone.
From shotgun in 11-personnel, the Patriots’ passing offense has averaged +0.176 EPA/dropback (4th), a 46.7% passing success rate (8th), 8.81 yards per attempt (2nd), an 11.66-yard average depth of target (1st), and a 12.5% explosive pass rate (4th). They’ve also managed to manufacture plenty of time to throw, averaging 3.07 seconds (1st), despite Maye still facing a 49.2% pressure rate (30th) in these situations, similar to Jordan Love at times.
While the Lions’ pass defense has struggled overall against shotgun 11-personnel, allowing +0.084 EPA/dropback (25th) and an 11.6% explosive pass rate (32nd), some metrics have been surprisingly positive. As the defense continues to improve and find itself, Detroit can take confidence in having held opposing offenses to a 42.0% passing success rate (14th), while generating a 45.4% pressure rate (3rd), a 9.0% sack rate (6th), and a 2.2% interception rate (13th) against shotgun 11-personnel passing attacks.
The game could be a lot closer than the Lions would like if Maye gets comfortable spreading the ball around from shotgun with three wide receivers in the formation. But if Detroit can limit the explosive passes and force some negative plays, it might not take 99 red balloons to send the Patriots’ offense into a panic in Munich.
Deutschland’s Favorite Sun (God)
It’s pretty surreal to see Amon-Ra St. Brown in the much-deserved spotlight this week, essentially serving as the Lions’ ambassador to Germany given his heritage. While he’s been disparagingly called a “slot merchant” by lesser talking heads in the past, St. Brown is seeing a career-low slot snap rate of 45.8% this season but has still been feasting when given opportunities from the slot.
On 73 targets to the slot this season, the Patriots have allowed 55 receptions for 690 receiving yards and five touchdowns. They’ve allowed a 75.3% catch rate (30th), 9.45 yards per target (27th), +0.455 EPA/target (27th), a 57.5% passing success rate, and a 16.4% explosive pass rate (29th).
St. Brown is due for a trip to the end zone, having gone five straight games without a touchdown (the referees robbed him of one against the Vikings), and he’ll have an opportunity to shine from the slot against a Patriots defense that has had few answers for opposing slot receivers. With Marcus Jones manning the nickel spot for New England, St. Brown could carve him up in coverage like a finely crafted German wooden nutcracker. Luckily, St. Brown mentioned on Friday that he still has two days to come up with his touchdown celebration.
Achtung! It’s a Pass!
Everyone who’s made it to this portion of the article knows that Jared Goff and the Lions’ offense rip play-action passes like the best of them. And I hate to be the bearer of bad news for the Patriots, but they haven’t been able to stop early-down play-action all season. It’s also a perfect opportunity for Goff to exorcise some lingering Super Bowl demons and exact a little revenge.
The Patriots’ defense has faced 7.9 early-down play-action passes per game, the fifth-most in the league, as opposing offenses have recognized their weakness and are attacking it. On 79 early-down play-action dropbacks, the Patriots’ defense, which will be without Carlton Davis III and features a post-injury-slumping Christian Gonzalez at cornerback, has allowed 51 completions on 71 attempts (71.8% completion percentage, 28th), 10.1 yards per attempt (30th), four passing touchdowns (29th), a league-worst +0.408 EPA/dropback, a 54.9% success rate (25th), and a 16.9% explosive pass rate (29th). Any way you slice it, the Patriots’ defense has been getting diced up on play-action passes.
You can fully expect Drew Petzing to lean into early-down play-action, putting linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss, along with strong safety Craig Woodson, in a bind while helping mitigate New England’s pass rush. That should create layups for Goff over the middle to his playmakers and potentially loosen up the running lanes for Jahmyr Gibbs, keeping defenders on their heels and in a tizzy early.
