It may not have been what everyone was expecting, but around 4 o’clock yesterday, West Virginia won their second Big 12 game, moving into thirteenth place and keeping their slim but real bowl chances alive.
This game featured a significant number of plays and chances but never felt as if West Virginia was in danger of losing the game. Now, the Mountaineers have to manage expectations while understanding that the goal of the season is within grasp, but focus and intensity can’t lapse over these next two weeks.
Is Scotty Fox The Guy?
That is the question that fans and media are asking. Fox, making his fourth consecutive start, didn’t light up the box score like he did a few weeks ago but his steady play has given the offense the calmness and effectiveness it needs. He finished 17-for-28 with 202 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He also carried the ball 17 times for 58 yards. On the season he has completed 52 passes in 88 attempts (59%) with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is now the leading passer on the team with 823 yards and closing in on second on the team in rushing yards.
Without the threat of being pulled, Fox has done what you want a quarterback to do — make you have this conversation. You can see that the offense is moving and picking up first downs, chewing clock and putting points on the board. In Fox’s four starts, the offense has scored: 13, 17, 38, and 29 points. They have won the last two games and averaged 330 yards of offense in the four games including 400+ against Houston.
I think you need a quarterback in the portal, potentially one who can do things better than Fox, but I don’t think you have to force a quarterback, which allows you to spend more on positions of need: another wide receiver, potentially another running back, offensive line and defensive help. If a quarterback becomes available and you can allow Fox to learn without having to be thrown into the fire, great, if not, ride with Fox.
Defense
Four weeks ago against UCF, the Mountaineers defense reached rock bottom. It allowed 500+ yards and 40+ points to a quarterback who we weren’t sure could throw and the defense looked like it was checking out of the season. They recorded two interceptions and one sack but to be honest, they looked inept. The entire team looked inept that week. Since then, the defense has found its footing and defensive coordinator Zac Alley has turned up the pressure, registering 11 sacks in the past three games. The defense again looks disruptive and playmakers are making plays.
Against Colorado, the defense came to play, registering 7 sacks and 15 tackles for loss. College football is weird in that it counts sacks against the rushing total and therefore the Mountaineers allowed only 51 yards rushing on 38 carries for a paltry 1.3 yards per carry. This now puts the Mountaineers 58th nationally in RYPG at 141 yards but 36th nationally in average allowing only 3.66 yards per carry.
At home, the defense has been a treat for fans, allowing only 24 points per game and only 21 in wins. The defense ranks 30th in 3rd down percentage, but SIXTH in the Big 12 in 3rd down conversion rate (34.25%). Who says the Big 12 can’t play defense?
When I talk about defense, I look at havoc plays and plays that cause turnovers / stops / change of possession. It is the single biggest way for a defense to affect games. Having a defense that is great against the run but unable to stop the pass is not going to win games. Having a defense that doesn’t give up YAC yards but can’t defend a pass is not going to win games. Having a defense that can and will knock down passes and get turnovers will win you games. Having a defense that can and will stop teams on third down will win you games. Having a defense that turns 2nd and 4 into 3rd and 10 will win you games. Stopping the opposing team from being able to convert, getting your offense shorter fields and getting the offense back on the field will win you games. This is what has been missing the last six years and what is now happening in Morgantown. The defense will allow big plays, it is the nature of football and what happens when you have an aggressive defense. Players will be out of position, they will go for a play and miss and it will turn into big plays, however the reward is greater than the risk and it is now paying off.
No More Glimmers
We’ve now moved past the glimmer stage when looking at this team. Several weeks ago we were resigned that this team wasn’t going to make a bowl game, now we can actively talk about the possibility. Weeks ago we were hoping the offense might just get a first down, we are now past that, actively looking for touchdowns.
The Mountaineers have found their quarterback of 2025, they have found their running backs for 2025 and they have found their identity on defense. The team can now point to what works, what doesn’t and how to improve week to week. We are still in the Win Small stage, but winning >>> losing any day of the week.
Is this team perfect – not by a long shot, but no longer do we look slow and plodding. No longer do we look like we are running fast with no direction, no longer does the defense look unmotivated, being asked to play perfect and hoping to keep a game close. Players are playing within their units, units are playing together and helping each other and the scheme, culture and system are beginning to see solid footing. You can now peek into the oven and see and anticipate what is you hoped would be something is forming. They say “Its the Hope That Kills You” but honestly, this fanbase has needed some hope. For the first time in a long time, you went in expecting a win and came out with that win. It wasn’t perfect but no longer were you just trying to convince yourself that this team would be good down the road, now you can see the summation of those parts and see why this player or that player was brought in.
Bowl Game Bound?
Three weeks ago I was resigned to say we weren’t making a bowl game and the possibility still exists that West Virginia will not be playing in December, but now, for the first time I’m not dreading a bowl game because it will extend the head coach, and I’m not dreading a game where we might win 21-17 and look completely awful and inept for 3.5 quarters doing so.
Next week is no gimme, but it also isn’t a foregone conclusion that West Virginia is going to lose. Arizona State isn’t a world beater and has their own flaws. At the beginning of the season, if I told you that with two weeks to go, West Virginia with 80+ new players would be in the running for a bowl game, with a freshman quarterback and freshman running back and a defense that was generating turnovers, you likely would have said “I’ll take it”.
Currently only Colorado and Oklahoma State are eliminated from bowl contention in the Big 12. UCF at 4-5, has games against Texas Tech and BYU left on its schedule and likely will be eliminated. Kansas, at 5-5, must win against either Iowa State or Utah to gain eligibility. Kansas State has Colorado and Oklahoma State on its schedule and likely will be eligible. Baylor has Houston, Utah and Arizona on its schedule – the 3, 4, and 6th teams in the Big 12. Not guaranteed, but not impossible either. 9 teams are currently eligible, and potentially 13 teams could be eligible if everything shakes out.
The question at hand is where would West Virginia slot in if it does become eligible and how many teams will make the College Football Playoffs. I would love it, if the Big 12 could get 2 teams into the Big 12, especially two teams in the 5-8 slots, allowing them to host home games. Each team that makes the playoffs nets the conference $4 million, so getting two teams, with a chance to host at home, only helps the conference. If the conference can place three teams in the playoffs and New Years 6 bowls, that is $12 million for the conference. 10 more teams in bowl games only increases the total bowl payout for the conference, something the conference and specifically the Mountaineers need.
For West Virginia, getting to 6-6, getting an extra week or two to practice and then potentially getting to the Celebration Bowl on December 13 in Atlanta in the Mercedes Benz Stadium against a MAC team to potentially finish 7-6 is a real possibility we can talk about. We have seen in the past when a team has the chance to practice after the season and win their bowl game, just how much better they are the next season. That is on the horizon now, not guaranteed but not out of sight.
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