Barring a catastrophe, the Houston Rockets will make the playoffs in 2026-27.
Making the playoffs is no longer enough.
If they don’t win a series this year, they’ll need major systemic changes. It isn’t even up for debate. It might start with firing Ime Udoka, but that’s actually my next article.
(In the industry, that’s called a plug).
For now, let’s drink a half-full glass of optimism juice. The Rockets certainly have the talent to advance to (at least) the second round. After the San Antonio Spurs
and Oklahoma City Thunder, they should be able to beat anybody in a playoff series (although the newly formed Timberwolves would like a word, and Jokic is still a Nugget…anyway, optimism).
Here are three keys to a successful 2026-27 season
1. Improved Shooting
As was the parlance in the 1990s, no duh.
It’s less about accuracy and more about volume. The Rockets were 10th in three-point percentage in 2025-26 (36.4%), but 28th in threes attempted per game (31.5). If they’d taken one three all year and hit it, they’d have shot a historic 100.0% from three-point range.
Fred VanVleet, who shot 7.7 threes per game in 2024-25, will help. More would be nice. Expanding Reed Sheppard’s role could suffice, but that’s at odds with VanVleet getting his shots up, and with Marcus Smart in the fold…well, we’ll see what happens.
Could Alperen Sengun get one more up per game, and ideally start hitting more? Amen Thompson is too far from a “credible shooter” to even wishcast.
It would be optimal if Kevin Durant would slightly adjust his shooting profile, but that’s unlikely. He’s been the perfect shot creator, in a vacuum, for his entire, illustrious career. He now finds himself on a team that needs fewer mid-range shots and more threes, but he’s a pretty old dog to expect a new trick from.
Wherever the Rockets find more threes, they need more threes.
2. Veteran Health
This one is also obvious.
They’re all obvious, OK? There’s no hidden blade. The Rockets are arguably the best rebounding team ever. They’re a top-end defensive team. They need better shooting; they need luck, and they need one more equally obvious thing that’s going to be the third key.
(In the literary world, that’s what we call poor foreshadowing because everyone knew it was coming anyway).
Last year, Durant was available for a remarkable 78 games. Then, he was largely unavailable in the playoffs when it mattered. That sure was annoying.
VanVleet infamously suited up for 0 contests. Can he play back-to-backs? Can Steven Adams?
Does any of it matter if the young guys can’t step up?
3. A Breakout Season
Sengun still has not put together a season where he maximized his impact on both ends of the floor. As I recently covered, neither has Amen Thompson.
With Thompson’s fresh extension, those two now account for roughly 40% of the team’s cap space. So, they’re the obvious breakout candidates:
But they’re not the only ones.
Some of us have long suspected that Jabari Smith Jr. could be a late bloomer. This would be a good year to bloom. A Reed Sheppard who isn’t wearing a “right this way, gentleman” T-shirt on defense could change the team.
Even Tari Eason has demonstrated more of an ability to get to his midrange jumper than some fans have given him credit for (although, if he could just return to his previous defensive impact, that would be good enough).
Generally speaking, the obvious route would be for one of Thompson or Sengun to step up from “fringe All-Star” to “fringe All-NBA”. If Smith Jr. could make a leap from “fringe starter” to “fringe All-Star”, that would also be impactful, and so forth. The Rockets need their veterans to stay healthy, but they’ll only go as far as the young guys can carry them:
And it had better be past the first round.
