Wow, what a World Series Game 7. I can’t believe the guy threw that pitch and the other guy hit it!
I don’t actually know what happened in Game 7 at time of writing, but I know what will happen after it. Contracts lapse the day after the World Series, and teams have five days to exclusively negotiate with their respective crops of new free agents. After that, it’s an open auction for all 30 teams to make their case to anyone in the winter’s class. The Yankees have a couple club options to decide on —
I think they’ll keep Tim Hill for $3 million, and let veteran Jonathan Loáisiga walk over his $5 mil contract. Cody Bellinger, meanwhile, will almost certainly opt out of the last year of his deal, and there’s where we’ll start a look at the auction block.
Hitters
Usurpingly, the Yankees got more offense out of their outfield than anyone else in baseball. You’ve always traditionally stuck your thumpers in a corner outfield slot, and while Aaron Judge at worst will be MVP runner up off another historic season, Bellinger did about as good a job at replacing Juan Soto than we could have hoped for. Turning 30 midway through the season, Belli managed a 125 wRC+, 29 home runs and virtually a five-win season while seeing time in all three outfield spots and at first base.
RBI are a difficult thing to assign individual value to, but Bellinger’s 98 was the second-highest mark of his career, and represented the second straight year where the Yankees seemed to solve the Judge Question — this guy gets on base 43 percent of the time, but who behind him can drive him in? Bellinger’s success by that metric owes a lot to how good Judge is, but Cody still got those hits.
Bellinger’s leaving $26.25 million on the table by declining his option, and while I’m not sure he’s going to match that AAV, his 2025 will mean he most likely nets far more than that in total compensation. I’m sure he’s seeking something in the $125-150 million range, over five, six, or even seven years to bring down that AAV for CBT-conscious teams. I’m not sure I love Bellinger for more than four years, but then compared to the next guy on the list….
Trent Grisham had one of the more surprising seasons by any Yankee, with 34 home runs and a three-plus win season. It’s always hard to handle a player that has a breakout season this late, in a contract year at that, and I think the Yankees would prefer some other team paying The Big Sleep for what he’s already done. His center field defense took a major step back in 2025 too, so unless there are multiple 30-home run seasons coming, there’s a lot of risk in that profile.
Lastly, Paul Goldschmidt is a very easy decision were I in a GM’s chair. He helped raise the floor at first base, a position the Yankees have watched become a bigger and bigger liability, to something just above league average. You get more out of not being stupid than you get being smart, and Goldy was a big part of that, say, B- first base production. The emergence of Ben Rice makes Goldschmidt fairly redundant, and the veteran looked run down toward the end of the year — a .283 OBP, .338 SLG, and just two home runs. Thanks for the efforts, and any wisdom you lent to the kids on the roster, we wish you the best.
Pitchers
We’ve already discussed the cases of Hill and Loáisiga, and the next two up boast similar cases. Perhaps the only relief pitcher who cost himself more money over his market value at the end of 2024 than Luke Weaver was Devin Williams, as the nominal eighth and ninth inning guys struggled to find consistency all year. Williams was regarded as perhaps the best reliever in baseball prior to his trade to the Yankees, and in fairness his ERA was two full runs higher than his FIP.
That’s rather basic analysis at this point in the SABR world, but paired with his previous excellence in Milwaukee, I think some team will still take a flier. Should he have to settle for a pillow deal and prove that ERA/FIP misalignment will correct itself, I’d be game for the Yankees to delve into that world, but we’ve seen this club get stung too often on too-big deals to late inning relievers to want more than that.
Weaver was the darling of the 2024 playoff run before finally running out of gas in the final innings of the World Series, but couldn’t quite find that form this season. There were certainly moments, but whether it’s the random vagaries of relief pitching or a hangover from a hamstring injury that he returned awful quickly from, Weaver may find himself looking pretty far for a representative MLB deal. That the righty is reportedly seeking time in a starting rotation makes him an even tougher sell.
Ryan Yarbrough finds himself on the market as well, and provided some valuable swingman depth for the Yankees. He strikes me as the type to sign two-year contracts until he’s 41, and if one came from the Yankees, I’d be fine with that.
