Hawkeye football is back with Iowa poised to open their 2025 season on Saturday evening as they play host to the Albany Great Danes. While the matchup is not an exhilarating one, getting back to Kinnick and seeing the Hawks back on your TV screen is certainly a welcome change.
Ahead of that first game, we’re taking our final look at season-long expectations. Earlier this week, we revealed the results of our community poll, which showed the fanbase expecting Iowa to go 9-3 on the season with losses
to Penn State, Oregon and USC.
That’s more optimistic than Vegas, where FanDuel Sportsbook has Iowa over/under 7.5 total wins this season. They also have the Hawkeyes 7th in odds to win the Big Ten at +3300, behind OSU +190, PSU +220, Oregon +460, Michigan +950, USC +1800, Nebraska +3000 and tied with Illinois.
* For those truly optimistic individuals, FanDuel has Iowa at +710 to make the College Football Playoff and +15000 to win the National Championship, tied for 28th nationally. *
Here at The Pants, we’re feeling pretty similar to the community. On the whole, we’re calling for Iowa to finish 9-3, good for 5th in the Big Ten. But there is certainly some variability in those projections. Our most optimistic staffers are calling for double digit wins and a run at the College Football Playoff.
On the flip side, our most pessimistic writers are looking for another 8-4 type of season with a middle of the pack finish in the conference. All of us are calling for a loss to #2 Penn State with Oregon and USC the other two most commonly expected losses for the season.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for the 2025 season.
Staff Predictions
JPinIC
Record: 9-3
Big Ten Finish: 6th
Wins: Albany, ISU, UMass, @Rutgers, IU, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, MSU, @Nebraska
Losses: PSU, Oregon, @USC
I am really trying to hold back my optimism about the offense with year two of the Tim Lester experience and not just a competent, but a good QB1. I really wanted to throw 10-2 out there and if not for the schedule, I certainly would have. But Iowa is facing off against a pair of top-ten teams at home in conference play, has an early season road trip to a top-25 rival and gets the dreaded trip across two time zones out to LA to face USC.
So to me, that spells 9-3 as the most likely outcome. I think 8-4 is a very plausible scenario, as is 10-2. There’s no feasible path to 11-1 in my view, but I also don’t see a world where this team drops to 7-5 outside of the defense just totally falling off a cliff. Betting against Phil Parker seems like a poor life choice.
Jerry Scherwin
Record: 10-2
Big Ten Finish: 3rd
Wins: Albany, ISU, UMass, @Rutgers, IU, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, @USC, MSU
Losses: PSU, @Nebraska
Yes, yes, Iowa can be 7-5 or 11-1 and everything in between. On paper, this should be one of the best Iowa TEAMS under Kirk Ferentz that still somehow only wins eight games because of schedule that could be a gauntlet (a la 2010). Nothing truly will surprise me in terms of outcome outside of Iowa not being competitive and in every single one of these games.
What I’m banking on is the sheer fact that Cap’n Kirk feels smitten about this team and its leadership and the work they have been putting in during the off season and the fact that despite losing some KEY pieces to the defense, Phil Parker can jump out of bed and hold teams to 21 points or less. Throw in LeVar Woods and his special teams unit that never disappoints (70-yard punts at Kids Day REMEMBER ME!) and all three phases of Iowa Football should be and WILL be better and way more consistent in 2025. Iowa is due for some injury luck at the signal caller position. They have weapons for the signal caller to utilize and we have offensive minds in charge of all of those pieces.
It’s playoff time. Book it
GingerHawk
Record: 8-4
Big Ten Finish: 6th
Wins: Albany, UMass, @ Rutgers, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, @ USC, Michigan State
Losses: @ Iowa State, Indiana, Penn State, @ Nebraska
I want to believe this team turns out like 2009 but I can’t shake the pessimistic devil on my shoulder that we’ll end up getting 2010. I think Iowa is more talented than last year and that talent is capable of going 10-2 but this schedule is just brutal. Outside of Albany and UMass there are no gimmes this year. I do think the Hawks can win double digits, and I will happily eat the plate of crow you put before me if that happens. I think they’ll be close in a lot of those games but be on the wrong side of close games. I do think Iowa finally gets another upset win inside Kinnick, this time over Oregon as well as finally winning a game on the west coast, but it’ll be cold comfort after another season of what could have been.
Greg Hollingsworth
Record: 8-4
Big Ten Finish: 6th
Wins: Albany, ISU, UMass, @Rutgers, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan State, @Nebraska
Losses: Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, @USC
Much like GingerHawk and JP, I’m trying to stem my optimism, because I’ve been here before as an Iowa fan and it’s hard to tell my inner-cynic to go spend some time in the corner. Regardless of the improvement at QB, there’s just not much that tells me we can beat Oregon or PSU under all but the most unlikely circumstances and games west of the Rocky Mountains have rarely been good for Kirk Ferentz’s teams. You could likely swap the loss to Indiana with any other game on the schedule (Cignetti won’t get IU back to the playoffs, but I have a feeling they’re going to be better than the Sharps are predicting). I can see 7-5 and, if Iowa catches every single break every single time, maybe 10-2, but Penn State looks like a steamroller and I just don’t think we have the athletes to hang with Oregon yet. I really, really, hope to be having a heaping helping of crow come dinnertime on Black Friday.
Matt Reisener
Record: 8-4
Big Ten Finish: 6th
Wins: Albany, UMass, @Rutgers, IU, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, MSU, @Nebraska
Losses: @ISU, PSU, Oregon, @USC
It’s tough to remember an Iowa team with as high a floor or low a ceiling as the 2025 squad. On one hand, Iowa’s offense has the potential to be considerably better in Year II under offensive coordinator Tim Lester. The Hawkeyes have a proven winner at quarterback in Mark Gronowski and as deep a stable of running backs and wide receivers as the program has boasted in quite some time. With Phil Parker running the defense and one of the best special teams units in college football, that sounds like a recipe for a successful season.
On the other hand, Iowa has one of the most difficult schedules in the country this year. Penn State, Oregon, and Indiana will all be tough outs at home, Iowa has to play three rivalry games on the road this season (including against an Iowa State team in Week 2 that will have the benefit of having played twice as many games as the Iowa by virtue of their Week 0 game against K State in Dublin), and the Hawkeyes haven’t won a regular season road game played in the Western time zone since 1987, making the prospect of escaping USC with a win particularly daunting. Add in the fact that Iowa is replacing seven starters on defense and the program’s long history of offensive futility, and one could talk themselves into thinking Iowa is more likely to go .500 this season than they are to be in the running for a playoff spot.
8-4 seems like the most likely record. The 2025 squad may end up being be the most talented team Kirk Ferentz has put on the field in recent memory, even if the record doesn’t necessarily reflect it. Still, if the Hawkeyes can protect their homefield advantage and steal a few rivalry games on the road, this team certainly has the potential to make some real noise this season.
Graeme Hollingsworth
Record: 11-1
Big Ten Finish: 3rd
Wins: Albany, ISU, UMass, @Rutgers, Indiana, @Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, @USC, MSU, @Nebraska
Losses: PSU
Ever the optimist, I’ve always had incredibly high expectations for Iowa football. I expected Iowa to finish with a 10-2 record last year, and was consistently let down by a middling offense with a statue at QB complimented by a defense that had regressed heavily from 2023. With multiple senior stars on defense having left for the pros and the offense relying on an FCS QB with a WR core made up of transfers and transplants, this team doesn’t exactly seem playoff caliber. All of these negatives are only worsened by a grueling schedule with two playoff teams from 2024 and only a couple of tune-up games. With this in mind, I am fully confident when I say that Iowa will surpass expectations this year and make the playoffs.
This is the best offense Iowa has seen since the 2015 unit led by CJ Beathard. Flat out. Although Gronowski is an FCS transfer, he has the added benefit of being one of the best FCS QB prospects in years. He’s rubbed shoulders with some of the best QBs the FCS has ever produced, like Trey Lance, Chris Oladokun, Cam Miller, Tommy Mellott, and Chris Streveler. Not to mention he won the Walter Payton over most of these guys, while also producing two national championships. Doubters will point to Gronowski’s performance in Kinnick all the way back in 2022 as evidence for his inability to play in such a tough conference, but I would counter and claim any QB that can keep up with Spencer Petras while playing in one of the toughest stadiums in CFB with an FCS level offensive line is a QB I want on the roster.
Admittedly, the defense this year is incredibly green. The Hawks lost a lot of great, integral players on defense to the draft last year. I’m not going to give some insane prediction that the defense will step up and rival the legendary ‘22 and ‘23 units, but I do believe this defense will be good. Phil Parker is seemingly unable to coach a bad defense, and with a capable offense that can keep them off the field for 70% of the game, I don’t think the regression in defensive strength will hinder this team nearly as much as most expect.
Of course, there are a few toss-up games. Taking on Penn State, even at home, will be a massive challenge for this team, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawks drop that game. Nor would I be surprised to see a loss against Oregon and USC (although I’m feeling incredibly confident about the Oregon game, as they have yet to announce a starting QB, while also losing most of their actual talent to the draft last year). Iowa State will likely be the biggest hurdle for this team early on, but if the Hawks can best the Cyclones in Ames, the sky’s the limit.
While 11-1 might seem a little ambitious, and the odds are definitely stacked against my favor, my attitude with the Hawks has always been the same: I’ll never bet on the boys in black to lose. Iowa wins. It’s in our DNA. After all, we aren’t Nebraska, are we?
So there you have it – our wide-ranging expectations that average out to a 9-3 finish. We’re firmly on the over of 7.5 wins set by FanDuel and ready to be hurt again. Where did we get it wrong?
