Game 2 of the Dusty May era saw the Michigan Wolverines fall to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the first leg of a neutral-and-neutral (semi home-and-semi home?). That loss was annoying but not unjust,
and actually did provide somewhat accurate foreshadowing for the rest of the season. One year later, the chance reappears to set the tone for the new season.
The return leg is set for Tuesday at Little Caesars Arena. Wake is coming off an impressive upset over Virginia…whoops, I mean Wake is 2-0 against anonymous competition and is a top-75 team per Kenpom. That makes Michigan a decent-sized favorite, especially in Detroit, and has a chance to make its championship intentions clear.
Wake Forest (2-0) vs. No. 6 Michigan (1-0)
Date & Time: Tuesday, Nov. 10, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
TV/Streaming: FS1
That loss in Greensboro showed the good and the bad of what the Wolverines could — and would — be. Poor three-point shooting and elevated turnover figures were ultimately too much to overcome in the 72-70 defeat, also serving as an omen of the close-game frustrations that would pop up later on as well. It was just one game, but this matchup proved to be a valid opening test for May’s transfer-filled squad.
Two Stats to Watch
3-point shooting: 54.3% (against Oakland)
Everything was going in for Michigan in the opener, as 35 (!) threes resulted in 19 makes, with just about everyone chipping in. Nimari Burnett and Will Tschetter lived up to their reputations, hitting four apiece, and Trey McKenney’s 6-for-8 performance in his collegiate debut was a great early sign for this backcourt. While the Wolverines do not expect to live or die by the three, this is certainly an area to watch.
Michigan was outside the top 200 nationally last year (33.2%) and was under that mark against Wake. In the Deacons’ first two games this season, opponents are hitting just 24.6% of their shots from deep, and while the quality of competition must be noted, this defense was also great a year ago, boasting the 26th-lowest opposing three-point accuracy.
It should not require a historic effort from deep to win on Tuesday, but I am curious to see what happens if this team is even average from behind the arc. Wake plays a style that invites threes, already ranking 322nd in three-point attempts as a percentage of all shots, and the opener showed the Wolverines will accept the invitation. This could be a tricky defense that forces tough looks, so if Michigan gets cold from three it might get a little uncomfortable.
Adjusted Tempo: Michigan 43rd, Wake 45th
Early on, both teams have run up and down the court, which is likely both caused by, and influential in, the schools’ turnover propensities (though Michigan was much better against Oakland than in the exhibition games). Each team has a top-25 average possession length and will want to play fast, which means execution is critical, especially in transition.
Top-100 prospect Juke Harris and transfer Sebastian Akins will lead the way for the Deacons; Harris went off for 29 points and 9 rebounds against Morehead State last Friday and Akins posted 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists in the win. Michigan can counter with plenty of scoring threats of its own, but it will be interesting to see how the defense matches up against aggressive players who will look to score quickly.
I do think the Wolverines’ athleticism should tilt the scales here, especially the bigs. Even though Wake has an active defense that will switch and take away passing lanes, the size advantage (and efficiency) of Michigan’s frontcourt seems like a strength. This could be a big game for Elliot Cadeau as a facilitator, as it benefits the Wolverines to attack before the Deacons get set defensively, too.
