Good morning. It’s Wednesday, December 10th. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-11. Let’s talk about their poor three-point shooting and how it impacts every facet of the game.
The First Sip
It’s a make-or-miss league. That’s been true since its very inception — but it’s become even more relevant as the league expands its range and opens up new avenues for three-point variance to help or hurt you.
We’ve all seen how three-point shooting can benefit the Cavs. They ran opponents out of the gym last year with huge scoring
performances. Nearly all of which combined volume shooting with elite defense that resulted in, well, a snowball effect that we call the ‘Cavalanche’.
But that snowball effect goes both ways.
Offense affects your defense and vice versa. If you’re nailing a ton of three-pointers, then your opponent has to take the ball out of bounds and bring it up the floor against a set defense. That makes it easier for you to play defense, which can lead to more turnovers and transition opportunities, creating a cycle of good offense and good defense in perpetuity.
The opposite is true. Missed three-pointers create long rebounds. Long rebounds, if corralled by the defense, lead to opportunities in transition for your opponent. Repeat this process for a few possessions and it can flip the entire momentum of a game.
That’s because we haven’t even mentioned the most important aspect of all of this: morale.
It’s hard to play with joy when you’re missing shots and getting burned in transition. On the other hand, it feels amazing to hit shots and shut down your opponent for minutes at a time.
The Cavs (this season) haven’t experienced much of the latter. They have, however, been on the wrong end of this phenomenon more than once.
Cleveland is first in three-point attempts but 22nd in three-point percentage. They average a league-high 29 missed threes per game. That’s a lot of misses that can swing momentum. There aren’t any stats that can capture ‘momentum’ in a basketball game, but there are a few stats that can show you what I mean.
Cleaning the Glass keeps track of transition defense, including play context such as live rebounds that lead to transition. So, think of missed three-pointers that opponents run with. The Cavaliers are 22nd in transition defense off of live rebounds — but 8th in halfcourt defense. Meaning they are a borderline elite defense when they are set in halfcourt, but one of the worst in the league when playing off of their own missed shots.
Now, keep in mind that the Cavs miss more three-pointers than any other team in the league, and some of these games start to make sense.
Simply hitting a higher percentage of their threes would make a big difference. Whether that’s lowering their volume to accommodate their poor shooting. Or, getting elite shooters like Sam Merrill, Max Strus, Darius Garland and De’Andre Hunter both back into the lineup and into a groove.
Either way, this season is once again proving that it’s a make-or-miss league.
