The 2025 Yankees have found themselves in a familiar spot — with their backs against the wall. The same team that squandered a seven-game lead but hung on to tie for the best record in the AL and lost
a maddening Game 1 of the Wild Card Series before rebounding to take the next two is facing elimination yet again tonight. After the team’s pitching staff got shelled for 23 runs in the first two ALDS games against the Blue Jays, much of the focus will rightfully be on starter Carlos Rodón, who will be called upon to stop the bleeding and give the Yankees a fighting chance to claw back into the series.
But pitching isn’t the only problem. After scoring just one run in Game 1 in Toronto, the top regular-season offense in baseball was dominated by rookie Trey Yesavage over 5.1 innings on Sunday, getting shut out while striking out 11 times. The mad dash that followed, in which New York scored seven runs off mostly lower-leverage relief arms, was too little, too late. At best, it could help what has been a listless lineup build confidence going into Tuesday’s do-or-die showdown.
Of course, the Yankees won’t be facing the phenom who stymied them on Sunday. For better or for worse, they’ll be facing a pitcher who is, in many ways, Yesavage’s opposite. Shane Bieber is a familiar name to the Yankees faithful. After a seven-year run in Cleveland that included a Cy Young Award and two All-Star berths but was repeatedly stalled out by injury, the Blue Jays took a flier on the 30-year-old at this year’s Trade Deadline as he continued to work back from a UCL injury. Bieber made seven starts down the stretch, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA to help Toronto clinch the AL East as he leapfrogged the likes of Max Scherzer and José Berríos in the rotation pecking order.
The veteran will be making his fourth postseason start tonight and his third against the Yankees following a seven-run drubbing in the Wild Card Series in 2020 and a solid, 5.2-inning, two-run showing in 2022.
After nearly two seasons in the wilderness of Tommy John, what version of Shane Bieber can the Yankees expect to face? The team’s manager has made his thoughts clear. “He looks like Bieber to me,” Aaron Boone told MLB.com. “I know it was obviously a long road back for him. Good pickup by the Blue Jays being able to get him and being able to insert him into their rotation. He’ll be a challenge for us.”
Some of the numbers tell a different story. Even at his best, the former ace allowed a decent amount of hard contact. But he missed bats and induced strikeouts at elite rates, with his four-seamer, slider, and knuckle-curve all serving as effective put-away pitches. Not the case in limited action this year. While Bieber has continued to generate whiffs with his slider, the same has not been true of his four-seamer or knuckle-curve. It’s why his strikeout rate has become pedestrian while batters have recorded hard contact on nearly half of balls put in play against him. Perhaps to counterbalance this development, Bieber has started mixing in his changeup more frequently with disastrous effects — opponents slugged .667 against the pitch this year. That formula led to an mediocre expected ERA of 4.57 this season, a run higher than his actual ERA.
Which begs the question: with the season on the line, how should a reeling Yankees’ offense attack Bieber? The first decision will be made well before game time when Boone makes out his lineup card. The Yankees skipper was cagey when asked about his plans Monday, telling The New York Post, “Could be one or two [changes], but it could very well be the same too.”
In a reversal of career trends, Bieber has had extreme reverse splits this season, with his fellow right-handers smacking him around the park (.936 OPS) while he’s dominated opposing lefties (.434 OPS). It will be interesting to see if the Yankees chalk that up to a function of small sample size or seize on the starkness of that trend to start some extra righties. If they take the latter route, Boone could pencil in the right-handed Paul Goldschmidt, who’s gone 3-for-6 against Bieber in his career, at first base over the left-handed Ben Rice, who’s struck out seven times in the last three games. Either Amed Rosario or José Caballero could draw a start at third over Ryan McMahon as well (I have to assume Boone will refrain from benching Jazz Chisholm Jr. again, though I would have thought that the first time around).
Once the game starts, the Yankees should be aggressive against Bieber. The wily veteran still avoids free passes with the best of them, posting an elite 4.4 percent walk rate. He’s gotten two strikes on batters in 58 percent of plate appearances and, while his strikeout numbers have been middling, that count leverage has given Bieber enough of an advantage to hold opponents to a .148 batting average. And, if his newfound struggles against righties are to believed, the Yankees’ right-handed bats should hunt Bieber’s heater — right-handers slugged .864 against the pitch this year, while lefties could manage only a .179 mark.
Boone’s remark that he looks like “the same Bieber” is probably good PR from a perspective of limiting bulletin-board material for his hungry opponents. But, by the numbers, this is not the same Bieber. If they want to succeed tonight, the Yankees should not go into the game expecting the imposing former Cy Young winner some of them have seen many times over the years. He’s found success this year less through top-notch stuff and more through diligent strike-throwing. If the Yankees try to work at-bats to find ways to get on base, they risk playing into his hands. If they ambush him early, they might be able to throw him off his game and gain a sorely needed advantage over their emboldened foes.
